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Валгрин Ко. Message Board

cash_is_king_now 117 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 8, 2016 12:42 PM Member since: Mar 9, 2003
  • Reply to

    The best deal for HZNP would be SUCAMPO SCMP

    by galaberge Dec 7, 2015 3:59 PM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 7, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    One problem, AMITIZA patent expires at the end of 2020.
    Not much life left in AMITIZA. IRWD and its new drug is taking the market share so, HZNP may be looking for something long term.

  • cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 7, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    Don't make fool of yourself. First, have you been right even once in your miserable life which this becomes the second time. While a broken clock is right twice a day and even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while but you cannot beat either one.

    When there was DEPO scenario, Hillary and VRX pressure and unknown Q3 earnings, HZNP went to $15. However, all those pressures are history plus HZNP Q3 earnings and outlook put the company on a different level that never seen before.
    Remember that $.20 Q3 earnings estimate became $.70 and 2015 rev jumped from $600m to $750m. Should I remind you other metrics that have been changed significantly? This HZNP is not the same HZNP that you have seen a month or so ago. It is like a new company with strong numbers and fundamentals in every area. After all, HZNP is not done for this year yet and any day it may blow you away with an acquisition that increases revenue and income even more for 2016 and beyond 2016.
    Now get a life and be realistic.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DEPO technical

    by cash_is_king_now Dec 7, 2015 1:21 PM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 7, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    For 2016, HZNP income is $.37 per share higher than DEPO. Just with PE of 12, HZNP price should be $4.44 higher than DEPO. So either DEPO is still expensive or HZNP is very cheap or both. However, HZNP has over $800m cash that can add new acquisitions and income for 2016 while DEPO cannot do anything but wait for a few years to reduce its debt.

  • cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 7, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    SCMP has Amatiza (to treat gastrointestinal, ophthalmic, and oncology-based inflammatory disorders, as well as other therapeutic applications) and its deal for R-Tech Veno for $275m was closed today. TW is sitting on SCMP board and he know the company very well. SCMP new acquisition give it international access to Amatiza plus a good pipeline of drugs.
    Is it possible that TW was waiting for SCMP to complete the acquisition before revealing a deal with SCMP?
    Anyway, this deal is much cheaper than DEPO and diversifies HZNP in other areas plus it give HZNP a good global footprint especially in Japan and EU.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Dec 7, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    DEPO technical has been weak recently and that is the reason for the dip.
    It was trading for 3 days under 50 DMA in lower BB band that was trending down and of course it was waiting for a red market to go down until it finds a support level which is around low $16.

  • Reply to

    OT: Other Stock (Bio & others) Suggestions?

    by fin_prof8 Dec 4, 2015 7:48 PM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 7, 2015 1:05 PM Flag

    soflaturtle, who are you anyway? Is it hard for you to understand that a stock with excellent cash positionand balance sheet, over 30% growth and PE under 9 cannot stay at current levels for good. Just a few days ago the stock was close to $23.
    The same way it came down, it will go up without people like you to realize it.
    Just the timing matter now, the stock was hit with a stupid downgrade in the red market and then carry over to today. HZNP management is watching all these actions and let all negative activities to come to surface before to start building up the stock with a barrage of good news.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Dec 7, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    Bollinger Bands become flat. The PPS is trading in lower BB. DMA(50) acts as a support around $18.90 and DMA(50) trends up as long as the PPS stays above $19.
    After MS analyst bash, the stock looks for some stability and catalyst to trade in upper BB. Although 50 DMA is a good support for days that market is in red, however, any good news like M&A will push the stock to the upper BB and uptrend will continue again. HZNP fundamentals are strong but there are some enemies that try hard to hurt the stock. Fundamentals will win eventually and the stock will get its value.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Dec 4, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    Bollinger Band stopped expanding and it is converging now. It means narrow range with low volume.
    The stock is trading in lower band and it is trying hard to pull itself to upper band.
    Mid BB is sitting at $20.33 and the stock has to go above it. May be it can accomplish it today.
    On the downside, 50 DMA is sitting at $18.93 and acting as a support. This is the bottom of 50 DMA as long as the stock stays above $19. It will trend up and it is positive for the stock.
    The stock needs a catalyst to get it out of this mode and lower BB. May be a M&A in coming days does the job. In that case, the stock will go to upper BB around $23.46.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Well, HZNP will rock next week

    by veqasfletch2001 Nov 27, 2015 11:54 AM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 3, 2015 8:12 PM Flag

    Stop blaming posters for today's HZNP action.
    Open your eyes and see the forces that are affecting the whole market and HZNP in particular.

    1- California shooting effects that continued from Wednesday and it was linked to terrorism.
    2- Europe market crushed after Mario Draghi came up with less aggressive plan. Germany and France indexes lost over 3.5%.
    3- Now add the intentional and timed Downgrade based on false and misleading info but issued specifically to hurt the stock.

    I am wondering and also pleased that HZNP is not down over 20%. Volume was average or low and the stock showed resistance. When panic attack was all over and some traders were selling blindly, then I expected high volume but it did not happened. It was mostly traders, weak hands and also manipulators who recycled shares to scare investors.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Dec 3, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    Mid BB is sitting at 20.22 and it acts as support. Although the support may break temporarily but it may hold in next few days without any extreme negativity.
    HZNP trend has not changed yet and indicators are still trending up. We will see in next few days if the trend is broken or not.
    50 DMA is the second support around $19.
    As today, 50 DMA is at $19.01. As indicated in past, 50 DMA will not trend down anymore and it will be flat and trends up from this point on, however it may stay around $19 ($18.80 to $19.20) for this year and act as a support.

  • MS analyst sold himself when he became DEPO adviser to do anything possible to damage HZNP to prevent it from acquiring DEPO. The analyst mentality and guard has not changed and he has tried to bite at a moment to cause the most damages.
    This is not analysis but a revenge and extreme bias which blind analyst. His recommendation is nothing but wrong speculation and wrong assumptions. He has ignored the most basic facts and trend and he will be marked with something that will be shameful for him and his firm in future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    morgan s shameful

    by alfredopagliacci Dec 3, 2015 1:08 PM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 3, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    When a target is change to this extreme without any creditable data, trend and just based on a wrong speculation then there must be something wrong with analyst and his analysis. This analysis is wrong since no negative events but HZNP had a stellar Q3 and stellar outlook for 2015, 2016 and even 2020.
    The analyst had this in mind but it could not reveal it after surprise and significantly better Q3 and raised outlook. MS waited for an opportunity to bash HZNP. MS was adviser to DEPO and fed by DEPO in past few months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • While 8 or more analysts look at the same data and saying one thing, all the sudden one analyst goes extreme and against his previous analysis and comes up with a target based on speculation and 100% switch overnight. It looks very strange and interest motivation instead of reality. Who does trust this analysis that it is motivated with an interest to falsify truth and even speculation? Without knowing the outcome of trials who put failure mark on it even though the data has been vey positive to this point. If scientists at HZNP and other firms decided to continue testing on what data has shown then who is this analyst who has no access or knowledge to comment this way?
    I just ignore it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Time for the Next Leg Up

    by success_now62 Dec 2, 2015 11:48 AM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 2, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    -----I guess corvettecars will need to sell his Hot Wheels corvettes----
    The way he is acting here, I think he may have a corvette toy car and a tricycle.

  • Reply to

    HZNP technical is very bullish

    by cash_is_king_now Dec 2, 2015 3:52 PM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 2, 2015 6:10 PM Flag

    Yes I do in addition to other indicators.
    I like what I am seeing. The price have been in the upper band in past 18 trading days while the bands are trending up to confirm that the trend will continue in coming days and weeks.
    In addition. In addition, the price has stayed above 50 DMA in past 8 trading days.
    Mid BB = $20.04, Upper BB = $23.75, DMA(50) = $19.12, DMA(200) = $26.97

    The following will be the next price action and technical for next few weeks and months.
    1- Upper BB will cross 200 DAM around $27 eventually.
    2- Price will inch up gradually and goes above 200 DMA eventually, of course after a few tries.
    3- 200 DMA becomes a support while BB bands continue to go higher. Upper bands opens up for higher prices.
    4- Average price will be around $30 and then $35 and eventually above $40.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Dec 2, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    All indicators are trending up. Today's action will continue. We may see another green day tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Updated 2020 number

    by bioinvest2k Dec 1, 2015 1:17 PM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 1, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    When people say this is the sector that is doomed, HZNP is part of it and it is affected by the sector.
    After all, although Actimmune will generate X dollar of revenue in future, it mostly depends on execution and most HZNP investors know that the company has good execution record but some computer generated analysis cannot get it right and until more proofs come along, HZNP cannot get the right credit. At that time, it will be late for some investors but that is the heard mentality. When it is realized then it will overshoot.

  • It took 18 months for Senate to come to this conclusion.
    We should send corvettecars to senate.

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Dec 1, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    HZNP is designing a way to deal with PBMs blind action of closing specialty pharmacies.
    HZNP will not talk about or hint PBMs. When the design becomes public then it will be late for PBMs and they have been hurting themselves instead of others without knowing it. HZNP is lucky to have a stupid enemy like ES.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Orphan drugs

    by cash_is_king_now Nov 30, 2015 2:48 PM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Nov 30, 2015 6:00 PM Flag

    sfv, don't make fool out of yourself. ES and insurers always try to find a way to pay less, not only for orphan drugs but also for all other drugs regardless of patients safety and drug effeteness. It is all driven by money and profit for insurers and PWMs. This is nature of their business to survive.
    A good example is GILD Harvoni hep-c drug that is superior compare to ABBV V-Pack hep-c drug. Harvoni is one 1 pill a day, less side effects and higher efficacy compare to ABBV V-Pack 5 pills, less effective, many side effects and know to cause heart attack. ES shamefully replaced Harvoni with V-Pack because it is cheaper. Fortunately, many PBMs did not follow ES and stayed with Harvoni and they did not accept V-Pack.
    My point is that your argument is baseless since ES always pushes the limits but it will not be able to do anything in this regard since there is not a replacement for orphan drugs.

    Sentiment: Buy

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