I wondering if DEPO management posts here too.
Andrew Left becomes shy to bash the way DEPO bashed HZNO thru PR without any proven facts or truth,
I am hoping that HZNP decides to dump DEPO.
In that case, DEPO sinks faster than the Russian airplane which was shot by ISIS.
Why HZNP goes after one house trailer, I do not know.
But some opportunist thinks that HZNP may offer them more.
I will be the first to dump my shares here if HZNP attempts that.
Myself and PB disagreed on some of HZNP moves but now I see that we are going the same way.
My point is that when a stock is undervalued, then there is no reason to hate it. A lot of investors see that HZNP is undervalued at this point and there is a potential of making good money here.
So, what happened in Vegas stays in Vegas.
HZNP announced its earnings date after DEPO.
Nov 4 DEPO reports
Nov 5 court day for Poison Pill
Nov 6 HZNP reports
I think Nov 6 is selected for following reasons. We know that DEPO will bad mouth HZNP again on its report day, so HZNP should have a chance to answer back, probably soon enough but Nov 5 was busy with courts for PP then the earliest date was Nov 6.
Go search oxycodone which made Purdue Pharma billions and how the prices, derived by addicts, pushed it high.
This is one person description of the drug:
It's like a speedball (heroin and coke) your heart will slow right down and then go back to jumping out of your chest its very hard on your heart I must say the first time can kill u thats a lot of meds to take holy #$%$ your gonna feel good tho it is a good feeling a speed ball till it kills u of course. That's a lot of drugs 60 MG's of oxycodone so much for a first time jeez I did ten MG's and I puked lol your hardcore. Just sit back relax and let the waves hit you and put on some good chill music just chillax u know what I mean smoke a j or 2 thats fun when speed balling. Just don't do it a lot it's addicting your gonna want more oxy and always remember how good it felt and chase that feeling till your so hooked u can't eat or sleep or function normally without the pills.You'll be puking bile+ hurtin.Oxy Is synthetic heroin its just as addicting got the same feeling too. Many people try oxy then get hooked on heroin so just a heads up be careful. But I know you'll do what you'll do
The only advantage of acquiring DEPO is to fire dishonest DEPO management and BOD.
That management is worse than Andrew Left and it seems to go any dirt way to get what they wanted.
I wondering if DEPO is hiding something and that is why they avoid any talks with HZNP. If DEPO was clean then they could open their books but who knows what DEPO is hiding.
Another reason is interest rate of 10.75%. May be creditors saw some weaknesses and squeezed DEPO for that kind of rate.
A Rollup (also "Roll-up" or "Roll up") is a technique used by investors (commonly private equity firms) where multiple small companies in the same market are acquired and merged. The principal aim of a rollup is to reduce costs through economies of scale.
However, a roll-up can be big or small company. VRX in big scale and DEPO in small scale are doing the same. DEPO put zero in drug development while VRX reduce development to save costs. That is the reason DEPO is more pure roll-up compare to VRX or HZNP.
Another point is that some roll-ups are dishonest and hide themselves behind other things. For example, a roll-up like DEPO raise Nucynta price by 44% the first day and its excuse was that there are other drug that sells for this price. This is dishonest. There have been a lot of complain about oxycodone prices that are used by drug addicts too. It is dishonest to hide behind other high priced drugs to raise your drug price.
Another fact is higher dosage of Nucynta means more addition. Is this a way to blink to drug users?
So, why not put some money in drug development if DEPO really wants to help people?
Charlie Munger like DEPO management do not their manipulation but only see others.
He is in this business doing the same thing in different way.
DEPO raised Nucynta price 44% and then complain about HZNP which has not increased the prices since Q1 2014.
These are people who make noises to cover and hide their wrong doing.
Well, DEPO management is acting like Andrew Left.
If Andrew Left is sued then DEPO management must be careful about some of false accusations about HZNP. Since when they become expert in this area.
Hope HZNP lawyer sends them a warning letter.
Andrew Left is not an analyst or accountant. He does not understand this sector and how it works.
He is just a short seller looking for profit. He was in trouble before for false information.
Then how come a cheater becomes a leader to bring down the whole sector?
VRX cannot be defended but a convicted guy like LEFT has no business to get involve.
He has become a vitrine for short sellers and he has been played by others who given him papers to read.
To hit these numbers requires a new drug that can elevate your imagination.
Recently, analysts has raised DEPO 2016 estimates. I raise the revenue to $500 but still I see difficulty for DEPO to manage and reduce its debt.
Let's remove $345m of DEPO debt, the convertible and leave the debt at only $575m.
Let's also assume that DEPO pays zero for taxes. 2016 will be as follow:
$500m revenue, $575m debt, zero taxes, 84m shares(66m diluted + 18m convertible) .
Still, DEPO pays $62m as interest for $575 at 10.75% rate.
Cost of revenue = $125m, 25% of revenue since DEPO pays royalty on Nucynta.
SG&A = $235m, mostly based on Q2 2015 but it has to be a little bit higher
R&D = $20m, mostly based on Q2, 2015.
Others, legal expenses, one times = $15m.
Total expenses = $457m
Net income = $43m or $.51 per share.
Non-GAAP will be higher.
For 2017, probably higher but still DEPO will be handcuffed to its debt, high interest rate plus it has to pay for high taxes too.
It makes sense to join HZNP but if it doesn't and I hope it doesn't, then I choose HZNP over DEPO since it will outperform DEPO by a large margin.
Last time that DEPO released a nasty statement, HZNP answered and went up 30%.
May be another answer to today's statement will push HZNP another 30%.
And those nasty people are often being nasty as a defensive approach to ward off people they're afraid will be nasty to them. How ridiculous is that?! Unfortunately, it's just a fact of life; all of us can be nasty when the right buttons are pushed and all of us meet nasty people whose buttons have been pushed.
Most HZNP shareholders can smell a distorted and dishonest troll offer like that from a mile away.
Since when DEPO wants to help HZNP shareholders?
DEPO stab-in-back of HZNP shareholders at every opportunity.
DEPO is short of saying " Well, I'm not a #$%$."
I believe HZNP should go after other acquisitions and should slow down on DEPO which start to become expensive. If the HZNP can get DEPO below $22 then it should go for it.
Then both companies will rise.
First, it free HZNP and other companies, banks and institutions to jump on DEPO shares with no limitation to buy the shares. Uncertainty will be removed and HZNP or any other company will be major DEPO shareholders. On the other hand, DEPO shares will be in demand and demand will push PPS up and up.
HZNP shares will follow too.
If PP is not removed, then DEPO shares will be limited for now and in future. However, it guarantees DEPO management jobs. The stock will be dull and boring and most traders will leave.
HZNP will give it another try and then continue to other acquisitions. Excitement will be in HZNP shares and I believe that HZNP shares will rise significantly if its next acquisition is better than DEPO.