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Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Message Board

cashbar1 135 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Mar 19, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Rumor rallies are not sustainable

    by demolives69 14 hours ago
    cashbar1 cashbar1 12 hours ago Flag

    And how many statements have been made saying that so far? From Russia? Venezuela/ Ecuador? And now the UAE? But NEVER any response from the boss of OPEC -- Saudi Arabia. This is b.s. Enjoy the pop. I will be shorting oil at the close.

  • Reply to

    your all in lala land

    by beansy_9 20 hours ago
    cashbar1 cashbar1 19 hours ago Flag

    thanks for the reference

  • cashbar1 cashbar1 19 hours ago Flag

    SO you agree with me

  • Reply to

    Mad As Hell

    by cashbar1 Feb 11, 2016 11:33 PM
    cashbar1 cashbar1 20 hours ago Flag

    arts.crafts2-What a grounded response. You obviously have a good handle on markets. But in uncertain times like these, we are, obviously, out of our league. Applying common sense based on the fundamentals of a company has no place in a stock market like this. And yes-I, too, have lost a lot of money discovering this. But don't let that consume you. For awhile, I was consumed by my mistakes and losses-up until recently. But there's always another opportunity lurking if you have the patience and survival instincts.

    I think in a few months, maybe even weeks, you'll have an opportunity to buy stocks at an unprecedented discount. It most likely won't be lower than what we saw in March 2009, but it will be the next best thing.

    FB may be the best run company in the world but it is NOT Apple like Barrons is writing. In 2011, Apple's market cap was same as Facebook's now. Except one big difference: it's valuation. FB is 4x more expensive than Apple was at that time. The Barron's author conveniently leaves that information out cause it would undermine his story. I can't even post a response to the author unless I pay for a Barrons subscription. They're biased in whatever ways they're invested in the market. I'm sure of it.

    Dan Nathan made a very good point yesterday on "Fast Money." He was the one who brought up the valuation of FB versus Apple. But he also said that if you think FB won't go down with the rest of the market should a systemic banking crisis or some other crisis evolve, you're wrong. And yes FB is back over $103 this morning. But why? We have an artificially propped up market today based on another oil rumor. And should it play out like the rest of the 12 or so OPEC cutting the production of oil rumors that have not materialized, the markets and oil will resume its downtrend. One glaring omission each time those OPEC cutting oil rumors are announced: Saudi Arabia is silent. And we all know they call the shots when it comes to cutting the production of oil.

  • cashbar1 by cashbar1 Feb 11, 2016 11:33 PM Flag

    People!

    I've created a new blog called "Mad As Hell." Each week I will pick a topic that has people buzzing and talking around the water cooler, on their social media sights, and over dinner over some good wine or hard liquor. Whatever it takes...

    Here goes. Tell me what you think.

    "Mad As Hell"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WINDtlPXmmE

    By Jesse Nash

    "Hear-yee Hear-yee townspeople. It's time to get out of the stock market and get into cash!"

    Interesting timing of the OPEC announcement at 2:31 p.m. Thursday. The market was about to capitulate, already down 400 points, oil was headed to $25 a barrel with enough puts at that price serving like a magnet -- and suddenly another announcement of another rumor from the UAE oil minister that OPEC is ready to cut oil production? FINALLY, right? LOL. ;-P

    How many of these b.s. announcements have we heard all based on a pump and dump rumor?

    Fear is raging out there people. It's my belief that your money is NOT safe in ANY long positions in the stock market. This is just the first warning shot I have to tell you about.

    Lets add an even scarier situation: the banks. Not just in the U.S. but in Europe and China. I say we are just months, maybe weeks, away from a brand new banking crisis. The banks are already acting like there is a systemic crisis. And this will make the mortgage securities banking crisis of 2008-2009 look like it was just a warmup. Some say the banks may skirt away from a full blown systemic crisis. But why are they all acting like they're already in the throes of a new one?

    Lets add some more background hyperbole.

    Today live from some conference in Puerto Rico, Hedge Fund, the sometimes brilliant investor (and sometimes not as he lost 50% and 35% in his fund in recent years), John Paulsen, has the balls to say the market is "overreacting" to the drop in oil and other factors, yet he then says he's worried about China, and adds, "Oh, yeah, I'm out of the market and waiting for lower prices." It's NOT what you say John. It's what you do.

    "Fast Money" traders argued heatedly that something is up with all the banks but they couldn't figure out exactly what. But they DID agree the banks are acting like they are back in the beginnings of another systemic crisis. Crisis?!! Another one? I thought we all learned our lesson from 2008-2009? Crisis from what?

    No one would say.

    But CNBC "Mad Money" host, Jim Cramer, did. Now, I'll just say it plain as hay: I'm not a fan of this ball-headed wind-bag who gets it wrong more than he gets it right. But in his defense, I do check in on what he has to say each day because every once in awhile, he DOES make a point worth paying attention to. Today was one of those days!

    Read what Jim Cramer said on "Mad Money":

    "U.S. bank stocks were horrendous. Could this be the impact of having more bad oil loans than investors know about? Or maybe the Fed is not going to raise rates, and the financials depend on higher rates for more money? Or maybe the entire industry is lying and they all have huge exposure in European banks, so if Europe goes down the U.S. goes down? [I THINK IT'S A MIX OF ALL THREE!]

    "People are worried that there is systematic risk caused by potential European bank failures that have not happened yet, and for the record, might not happen at all — but we have to be scared out of our wits that the possibility is even on the table," Cramer said.

    People -- "Fast Money's" Brian Kelly said a month ago "stay in cash." Carter Worth says we WILL see 1575 on the S&P. Why is 1575 so important? It's where the last breakout occurred many eons ago. When markets capitulate, breakout levels can give you the information you need to seek out a bottom when the time comes.

    Friday could be, maybe, will be the real test of the Jan 20th lows. Thursday they got a reprieve because of that supposed OPEC cut rumor, another in a long line of them. Markets are green overnight. But come 4 p.m. on Friday, will we see red? Will we some real capitulation? Warning: It's a 3 day weekend. Whom would want to leave their money in THIS God forsaken market on a three day weekend?!?!

    Frankly, whether the real test to break the January 20th lows happens on Friday or not, it's not really important than to understand the aforementioned points I just made and to heed my call to action. GET IN CASH! Something this way comes and it will be real ugly. Not if, when.

    Oh, and one more thing: do you think the Bank of Japan's announcement they are going to negative interest rates, where they charge people for leaving their money in Japanese banks overnight, has opened Pandora's Box? Do you think this one action out of all now gives China the signal to lower the value of the yuan substantially? You remember what happened a week or so after they did that in August? The DOW dropped 1089 points, the biggest one day drop in its history. God help us for what may happen when -- NOT if -- the Chinese devalue the yuan. Cause it's coming, you can count on it.

    I'm mad as hell folks. If this market goes to hell, we're all going to suffer some way or another whether you're invested in the stock market or not!

    Strap in everyone. It's going to be a nauseating ride.

    ENDS

  • Reply to

    BEWARE OF BAD THINGS TO COME

    by cashbar1 Feb 11, 2016 8:47 PM
    cashbar1 cashbar1 Feb 11, 2016 10:10 PM Flag

    1575. 1575. NOT 575.

  • Reply to

    BEWARE OF BAD THINGS TO COME

    by cashbar1 Feb 11, 2016 8:47 PM
    cashbar1 cashbar1 Feb 11, 2016 10:10 PM Flag

    Mako you ignorant #$%$. China's banks are months, maybe weeks, from a systemic debt crisis. Weeks away from devaluing the yuan which caused the DOW to drop 1089 points the last time they did that in August. U.S. banks are acting like they are in the beginning of a systemic crisis but have yet to reveal what that crisis is. Too much exposure to Europe? To China? What aren't they revealing. they've done this before and we had a crash. Mako you want to be in denial, your risk. if you can stand to see your investment drop 10-20%, stay the course baby. But I don't want to see you post your tears should I be right.

  • Interesting timing of the OPEC announcement. Market about to capitulate already down 400 points and suddenly another announcement that OPEC is going to cut? How many of these b.s. announcements we've heard all based on a pump and dump rumor? Fear is raging out there people. Your money is NOT safe in ANY long positions.

    Lets add an even scarier situation: banks. Not just in the U.S. but in Europe and China. I say we are just months, maybe weeks, away from a brand new banking crisis. The banks are already acting like there is a systemic crisis.

    John Paulsen has the balls to say the market is "overreacting," yet he then says he's out and waiting for lower prices.

    "Fast Money" traders argued heatedly that something is up with all the banks but they couldn't figure exactly what. But they also agreed the banks are acting like they are in the beginnings of a systemic crisis. Crisis from what?

    No one would say. But Jim cramer did. And I'm not a fan of this ball-headed air bag who gets it wrong more than he gets it right. Except every once in a while, he makes a point worth paying attention to it. Read what Jim Cramer said on "Mad Money":

    "U.S. bank stocks were horrendous. Could this be the impact of having more bad oil loans than investors know about? Or maybe the Fed is not going to raise rates, and the financials depend on higher rates for more money? Or maybe the entire industry is lying and they all have huge exposure in European banks, so if Europe goes down the U.S. goes down? [I THINK IT'S A MIX OF ALL THREE!]

    "People are worried that there is systematic risk caused by potential European bank failures that have not happened yet, and for the record, might not happen at all — but we have to be scared out of our wits that the possibility is even on the table," Cramer said.

    People -- "Fast Money's" Brian Kelly said a month ago "stay in cash." Carter Worth says we WILL see 1575 on the S&P. Why is 1575 so important? It's where the last breakout occurred.

  • Reply to

    oil rumor not true

    by wdhcuds7 Feb 11, 2016 3:30 PM
    cashbar1 cashbar1 Feb 11, 2016 3:35 PM Flag

    CNBC should be fined for manipulating the market by announcing "rumors." Oh right, there is no manipulation in the stock market. Uh-huh. ;-p

  • Reply to

    Another great short right here

    by robbierobnj Feb 11, 2016 1:04 PM
    cashbar1 cashbar1 Feb 11, 2016 1:37 PM Flag

    Even with an upgrade?

  • Reply to

    $105.11 day high today?

    by xdubson Feb 11, 2016 1:32 PM
    cashbar1 cashbar1 Feb 11, 2016 1:34 PM Flag

    Was just about to post the same thing? Is this MMs sending a message to each other? Time to buy?

  • Reply to

    Down she goes

    by skaaudi Feb 11, 2016 12:45 PM
    cashbar1 cashbar1 Feb 11, 2016 1:21 PM Flag

    skaaudi-i am applying the same strategy... P-A-T-I-E-N-C-E. Sub-10s would be a back up the truck scenario with an easy chance to double your money in a short period of time. But for ERX to go below $10, then we would need to see $20 oil. $19.94 a barrel is the 2001 low. That's where I make my first substantial buy.

  • cashbar1 cashbar1 Feb 10, 2016 9:40 AM Flag

    But first $20. Oil headed to 2001 low of $19.94. But first we will have a banking crisis with those banks that over-leveraged and gave oil companies way too much money to cover their debts. when these oil companies declare bankruptcy one by one, banks all over the world will be left holding the bag of billions and billions of dollars of debt. The problem with this oil and bank arrangement, you have debt driven loans rather than equity driven loans. Same theme as the mortgage crisis in 2008. These banks gave loans to any Tom, #$%$ or Harry who wanted one without looking at their financial history. Greed consumed them and greed has caused them to do the same thing all over again and it will their demise. Brace yourselves people. 2008 shows you the rehab banks had to go through was never really completed because our government gave them a free pass and bailed their #$%$ out without a single person going to jail. They never completed their treatment. And, so, the addiction always remained until the next opportunity. Oil replaced mortgages as the latest get rich quick scheme to backfire. In the coming months, don't be surprised to see oil succumb to that $19.94 2001 low. But should this happen, that's when the bankruptcies will begin and the banks will start at debt crisis that I believe will spread globally. If that train leaves the station, get out of the way cause it's going to end really bad.

  • cashbar1 cashbar1 Feb 10, 2016 8:28 AM Flag

    Con tango. One word to remember. Yes you got it right, oil is up. But USO is flat. Contango.

  • Reply to

    goodbye 100 wont look back from here

    by scottshuler Feb 10, 2016 7:21 AM
    cashbar1 cashbar1 Feb 10, 2016 7:30 AM Flag

    Scott I love your permabull posts. But snap out of it. Suddenly the market is green and your flashing the "everything is A OK" sign? SNAP OUT OF IT. This market is not about Facebook. It's about oil and banks and bankruptcies that are coming and probably a systemic banking crisis because of these banks over-leveraging and supplying debt money to all these oil companies. China is the country whose banks stand the greatest chance to implode first and then it will spread to Europe then the U.S. FB will be effected like every other stock.

    The way to play this is sell into any rally. These markets are broken. I sold all my positions except for 500 shares I own at $105.65. If i get close to that I will take a small loss. I will make that back and then some later.

    Look at how crazy the markets are. FB drops at the open to $96.82 and runs up within an hour or so to $102.40 and then within another few hours drops all the way back down to the low $97s???!!! And then runs back up to $100-$101 again? This market is broken my friend. Oil is controlling things. And there is going to be a day very soon when oil drops close to $20 a barrel. The 2001 low is $19.94 a barrel with oil. IT's heading there. And FB could well flirt with prices in the $80s if that happens.

  • Reply to

    WHEN DOES THIS STOP?

    by cashbar1 Feb 8, 2016 1:35 PM
    cashbar1 cashbar1 Feb 10, 2016 7:22 AM Flag

    You actually do agree with me in the first part of your post. As you saw in my followup post, my discussion of oil that's debt driven rather than equity driven will lead to your "big swoosh lower on significant bankruptcy." Don't forget, that bankruptcy is not just about oil companies. It's about the banks that have over-levereged themselves with debt. BAC is one. When the bank crisis starts-buy.

    The "too much supply at the drop of a hat" exists only until it doesn't. And how will that change? When enough of those oil debt driven companies declare bankruptcy, enough so that Saudi Arabia says time to cut production. And don't think this $20 oil -- and it will get close to that level, minimum $25 -- is sustainable by even the Saudis. They continue to risk of destabilization of their currencies. The Saudis have another 6 months to play this game of chicken before even they will have to do something about it. So 5-10 years of an overabundance of oil is a big overshoot in my opinion. I think we hit bottom soon, maybe in the next months. Sometime this year Saudi Arabia will announce coordinated production cuts. You don't think oil will rally something in the nature of a short squeeze? It will.

    Oil may be an old commodity but t's NOT coal. EVERYONE needs oil. And that need will never change. You neglect to realize how many everyday things we use in this society that couldn't be manufactured without oil. From the paper we write and print on, to the toothpaste tube we brush our teeth with, and on and on and on.

    And forget Elon Musk, Tesla, Solar City... $35,000 for a car? You think the average American can afford that? And do you really think that's going to change things? First of all, they can't manufacture enough of them to make any real dent into anything. And all this alternative energy is going to remain mute with cheap oil. Even at $40 a barrel, people will pay $2.25-$2.50 or so a gallon for gasoline. No problem. So I think your argument is full of holes.

  • Reply to

    WHEN DOES THIS STOP?

    by cashbar1 Feb 8, 2016 1:35 PM
    cashbar1 cashbar1 Feb 9, 2016 9:30 AM Flag

    red you sound rational. I just wish the stock market and FB stock traded as rational as you sound.

  • Reply to

    WHEN DOES THIS STOP?

    by cashbar1 Feb 8, 2016 1:35 PM
    cashbar1 cashbar1 Feb 9, 2016 7:49 AM Flag

    wwtimewarp-also the problem with oil production is that it's debt driven NOT equity driven which means companies will keep pumping oil just to stay liquid. Which means there'll be a day in the coming months when the weak companies go belly up and the price of oil crashes to unfathomable levels. With patience, it will get there and THEN you buy with both hands. I'm talking $20 a barrel, maybe even lower. An ETN like USO would be around $5-$6 at that price. No worry about USO going bankrupt. So you'd have a guaranteed double MINIMUM at that price, probably a triple. So again why would oil be a waste of time over 5-10 years? Why would it take 1/2 a decade to a decade for all this to play out? I think you've called it wrong. And if you haven't, please explain. IF -- and this is the $100 billion dollar word -- it drops that low, score! Right now short positions show there is a huge battle between those who think oil goes from $30-$20 and those who think the bottom is in. My bet is that the bottom is far from being in due to what I said earlier. Oil companies with bad balance sheets, the debt driven companies, will keep pumping to stay liquid. And there will be an inflection point when these types of companies go belly up and bond holders take control and sell their positions to somebody else. When you start seeing headlines like this -- THEN you start accumulating shares. I like USO because it's cheap. XLE is the preferred instrument for many. Buffet likes Phillips. Some like Exxon XOM. What do you like?

  • I mean they beat earnings by 1/2 BILLION dollars. This is the #$%$ reward?

  • Reply to

    WHEN DOES THIS STOP?

    by cashbar1 Feb 8, 2016 1:35 PM
    cashbar1 cashbar1 Feb 8, 2016 3:39 PM Flag

    Why do you say that? If oil drops to $20 a barrel and an ETN like USO drops to $6, you don't think that's a great trading opportunity? You get a guaranteed double in 6-9 months. Oil will at least hit $40-$45 by end of the year. Why do you say oil is done for the next 5-10 years? It's okay to have an opinion but back it up with valid reasoning. First of all, not many countries nor oil companies could sustain their businesses at $20 a barrel. It would be the perfect time to start to buy in at that price (or close to it). I think $20 a barrel would be brief and quick and run back over $30 in no time because at that price you'd have many casualties, which is what Saudi Arabia wants. But 5-10 years-I'd like to understand your argument here. Please explain.

    As far as FB, my theory is we see 1600 on the S&P over the next few months. A true 25% correction from 2134 in May. Bear markets usually last 13 months so if that holds try, we should see the end of this by July. And 1600 on the S&P adds significance to the Aug 24tg low of $72.

SIRI
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