scott i know you're a FB permabull but if FB does a NFLX (which it is definitely way overdue), I'd be pleasantly shocked. Personally, I think the only way that would happen is if FB posts huge numbers: EPS: $.49 consensus so they'd need $.59 or higher. revenue: $3.875B is high end consensus, would need $3.9B+++... and they'd have to show they beat huge on top and bottom line especially with ads and users. They need to show new ways they are growing.
Please post your take on this. Thanks.
ah dawggy that's what earnings are for. You place your bets and then earnings tells you whether you got it right or not.
"fb will be lucky to be past 100 stocks go up and stocks go down and some stay range bound,fb is likely rangebound and at lewast for a few weeks we are nearing the midpoint of that range 75-85"
Why? Because you say so? You've been wrong all year. You said FB wouldn't reach $80 by year's end and it hit $82.17. I don't normally agree with "robshem" but what he writes makes sense. If they show the market they are blowing the numbers away - "you gotta spend money to make money" -- and the market sees that the money IS being spent the right way and the results prove it, he could be right. Tracey you have (or maybe always were) become way too conservative for my taste. You write "range bound" but you don't back it up with reasons why.
$78 today MAYBE $80 tomorrow. Definitely by Monday. $83 by earnings day. Big beat all bets are off. Think EPS could come in at $.60. Revenue $3.9-$4BILLION. If so, we see $93-$103. If just a beat, then $88.-$89. We'll see soon enough.
Looks like market responding very positively to Drahgi QE announcement. Very helpful to FB from now through earnings. Should have positive follow through tomorrow. I think we have a shot at new 52 week high of $83 before earnings. If we get a blowout earnings, could a Netflix-like rise take place?
tracey you're too conservative. FB did NOT stop rallying during holidays. the market did and FB held up well. If Drahgi satisfies sets FB earnings and share price incredibly well. I think wwtimewarp is right. After 6-7 months in this range, the bigger the pop if the numbers are there.
petrojerko never claimed it would never be at $75. We've had a bad market down 16 of 20 days. Only reason why FB stock -- as with many many others -- is down. Freaking genius you are NOT!
One mistake in your analysis -- Best Buy is NOT FB. Apple is NOT FB. Both these companies have serious earnings problems that will bite them in the #$%$. Apple has the watch which I believe will fail miserably. then you have rumors that sales of their IPhone6s were slightly below analyst expectations. Apple will not be able to bring in revenue and EPS numbers to support higher share prices. I believe APPL is heading to the $80s. Same with Best Buy. Retail numbers have been weak and Best Buy will be effected like every other retailer. Ultimately it comes down to fundamentals. Stocks that outperform like Best Buy and Apple have will capitulate if the fundamentals don't live up to the company's stock valuation. Both Best Buy and Apple are about to have this happen to their stock. FB is the opposite. Stock has been languishing in a range of $72-80 for 6 months with just a small breakout Dec .22. So a move is coming. Now if you believe the Bears, it's going to $63-$65. But I think these people are out of touch with FB the company and don't understand the business model. My belief is that if shares are at $75.18 without revenue from video ads, Instagram, What's App, Oculus Rift, internet.org, China, etc etc etc... once FB does their 2015 guidance for the year, they will have to start talking about these new revenue streams. Especially if they have a BIG BEAT on EPS, Top and Bottom line revenue numbers when they report earnings on Jan 28th. Then they won't be able to sandbag analysts like they have in Q2 and Q3. Once they start talking about the revenue that's coming, watch the market embrace. The market wants to see FB monetize their purchases and new businesses and once they start talking about that -- which I believe will start Jan 28th -- the stock will ascend to $100.
give... you still might be right that FB will be $200 a share by inauguration day Jan 20th 2017. That's 2 years from now. There are theorists -- including Jim Cramer -- who have said that they believe that once FB crosses the magical $100 a share plateau that a parabolic rise will ensue in the same way that it did for Google. 2004 GOOG opened at $84 when it first traded on the stock exchange and within 18 months was at $350. Another 18 months after that at $700. FB has three times as many new revenue streams about to kick in or in the early stages of already generating income than GOOG ever had. Cramer once discussed this on his Mad Money show and, although the man gets it wrong all too often for me to tke his word on anything, his reasoning for this theory made a lot of sense. A different kind of institutional investor will step in once $100 a share is achieved and a run to $200 could happen a lot faster than anyone would ever imagine as long as they show the market they are monetizing all these purchases and businesses. This process of showing the market their new revenue streams should begin in earnest Jan 28th and continue to gain momentum throughout the year. A double between now and Jan 2017 is not far-fetched as long as the numbers back it up. I believe they will.
yes kn592 but the other side of the coin, analysts want to show their clients they got it right earlier than the rest of the pack. You could present arguments for both sides. But the fundamentals tell the story: multiple revenue streams that are just starting to kick in and will be talked about in their 2015 guidance.
All Sandberg and Zuckerberg need to do is talk new revenue streams in their 2015 guidance. That will be enough to offset new expenses. And, of course, they need to beat big on EPS, top and bottom line. Usually Q4 is their strongest quarter.
tracey563 you said no $80 by xmas and we achieved $82.17. You're too nervous and that causes one not to make accurate calls. I think we could see new high by earnings day. CNBC jerks saying $63. Right. Why? Cause they have all their money in GOOG. Talk about biased reporting. So many times Fast Money and Jim Cramer make predictions on stocks and they go the other way. Guy Adami said FB was heading to $84 and was just freaking wrong. Video ads are in full throttle. Instagram is starting to be monetized. Full year guidance. FB Zuck and Sandberg will talk revenue for 2015 and that will get Mr. Market excited. I understand their conservative position Q2 and Q3. But now is the time to start talking about new revenue streams for 2015 guidance. $82-$83 earnings day, then to mid-$90s after a perfect CC by end of Feb. No correction as predicted by some by end of Feb. Correction is now.
So obvious these clowns. They're all in with GOOG so now they say time for momo stocks like FB TSLA NFLX to drop. What jerks. See you at earnings where you CNBC flunkies will be exposed for the bias you have.