Everyone thinks the lockout means shares will be sold. Completely a myth. Shares will reach $85/share by Dec. 31st and $90/share by next earnings. If FB earnings produces a big beat as it did last January (4th quarter is the company's best quarter), I still think $100/share is not out of the question. Remember, the shares have been pressured by a comment on spending. Something that hasn't even happened yet. Earnings were stellar, especially when you consider FB's competition in the secter like GOOG, LNKD, TWTR, YELP, BABA, YHOO, etc... they had the best earnings of the group. Remember that FB tends to sandbag projections with an under-promise, over-deliver objective. This expense comment was done by design IMHO because analysts were letting their earnings models for FB get too frothy. Sandberg/Zuckerberg addressed this pointedly during the last CC but it seems analysts ignored them. So the only way to really get them to adjust their earnings models was to announce that spending was going up in 2015 by 55-75%. FB is spending money on hiring 12000 new employees, money on new technologies and acquisitions. You want the owners of the company to be aggressive in keeping ahead of the curve. And if Instagram is a good example, the market will give Zuckerberg the benefit of the doubt because they were wrong about Instagram and they will be wrong about WhatsApp, Oculus and other recent purchases.
Share price won't go to $68, in fact, it won't go below $70. And $70 only if market has big red day. Lockout may not pressure the stock as much as you and others think it will. If you are getting your FB shares, why would you sell if you know the price of the stock will be substantially higher in 6 months? $70 still possible. But think $72 is it. We already saw $72.90 so a little more may do it. We saw $71.45 in AHs Oct 28. Would buy shares on margin at that price.
Tracey-think you are over reacting. Maybe you're getting a little too emotional (trust me, I've had that happen to me) about what you thought was going to happen, and what DID happen? Earnings were great. The stock is down $8 cause of a comment about spending going up 55% to 75%, something that hasn't even happened yet? Spending that may not be as much as FB team says (FB is notorious for sand bagging; under promise, over deliver). Don't agree with your "couple of quarters of virtually little stock performance until we get some spending behind, and the results from whatsApp. Results from WhatsAp???!!! Didn't you listen to the CC? WhatsApp is LONG TERM, like a 3-5 year plan. So the market knows not to expect anything. Frankly, I think what FB management did was done by design. Think about it. If you are going to be spending a billion dollars on hiring and aquistions, do you want to do it with your share price at $100 or $75-$85? Even more important, they want analysts to scale down their pricing models for FB future earnings. They said it last time -- "analysts with frothy numbers because of video ads, whatsapp, instagram need to adjust their earnings models as we are talking long term and are implementing all slowly" -- They said it last quarter, yet analysts ignored them. Now they can't ignore them anymore and already are lowering their price targets amongst other metrics for the end of this year and 2015. From FB management eyes: mission accomplished. Share price will recover upward trend once lockout done tomorrow. Why many saying $85 by Xmas or me Dec 31st. Story still intact just will take a longer period to roll out.
Lockup does NOT mean everyone will sell. 10% lower you wrote from $75? You're panicing. Stop it now. Might see as low as $72. Again you had a chance in the $71s AHs earnings night. Don't think it will go back there unless the whole market capitulates. Either way, I think Joe Najarian is right that we'll see $84-$85 by Dec. 31st. I'll take that. $100 in Feb. Then we get a parabolic run.
I highly doubt you will be able to buy FB shares between 66-70. If u r lucky, MAYBE 74. 72 if market is volatile. You had a shot at getting shares in the $71s AHs on earnings day. Doubt it goes back there.
Crushed? Are you off your meds again? Has Yelp infected your mind? The whole market is red this morning. GDP 3Qtr numbers. Really learn about lockups before you start posting. A lockup doesn't mean the people holding those shares will all sell. If FB is the great company it is, selling makes no sense since we all know it's going higher. Read about lockups and learn instead of using these boards as fear therapy for your insecurity. Is YELP still being bought out by FB in January? LOL
Rob -- You have no clue what you're talking about. Read about about lockups. Post about what you know like FB buying Yelp in January. LOL.
blhw01-actually bought at $65 but sold at $75 in a botched trade thinking Cramer had it right that the share price was going to $68 a month back. Ended up buying back in $2.25 more. I've already made money on that trade and am now back in as I feel the shares are hardly fully valued. Like I posted above, I think we see $85 by Dec. 31st. $100 by Feb and I think then we see a parabolic rise to $150 or thereabouts from there with $150 coming a lot sooner than most people think. If I'm wrong then at least we'll see it by the end of 2015 but I have a feeling towards the end of 2015, FB shares will take off and we'll really get to the next level.
$78 would be great way to end the week. Still think we see $85 by Dec. 31st. Great report if Zuckerberg COO hadn't dropped the Expense Bomb during CC. Nothing fundamentally has changed about the company. So although we were all side swiped during the CC, I look at these share prices as a sale going on. If you have any dry powder you buy. I'm already in at $77.25. Might by a few shares on margin if the pps drops to $74 or under. Sucks but, quite frankly, as much as I'd like the share price to rise NOW, what Sandberg/Zuckerberg are doing is what you WANT to see the owner of a company do. NOT to rest on his laurels. To actively invest in the future. Some may say he's over-spending. They said that when he bought Instagram. They were wrong.
Yes, it's going to take time. And I think the comments about going "slow" were released by design. FB doesn't want Wall Street getting ahead of itself when it comes to their computer pricing models on the company. This will force them to lower expectations. Again, under promise, over deliver. I still think we have a shot at $100 by next earnings. And $150 BEFORE the end of 2015, maybe even as early as April-May with a little help from Mr. Market. Right now it doesn't feel that way. But shares have been locked in this range for a long time. At some point I think they'll break out and move to the next level. For now, I'm going on safari in Zambia (Africa) and then wine tasting in Capetown. Be back closer to Thanksgiving. Wouldn't be surprised to see this at $80 again by that time.
Hey Tracey.. Zuckerberg put his foot in his mouth but, after having a night to digest, he and Sandberg are doing a classic, "under promise, over deliver." If you tell everybody in the room revenues are dropping 25% from 64% to 40-47% and you deliver 50%, then the next earnings everyone will be applauding and the share price will skyrocket. I noticed a pettern they are taking. I think internally, Zuck/Sandberg have been concerned for quite some time now that analysts have been setting the bar too high. So what to do? Let the air out of the baloon. Does it mean this was a bad quarter? NO. FB is doing everything right. Does it mean the next quarter will be bad? even a bigger NO. Last quarter Sanberg and Zuckerberg called out to analysts who had frothy numbers being used in their computer earnings models to adjust them lower saying quote, "we will NOT be able to keep up this pace," and you need to adjust your computer earnings models to reflect that. Obviously, they did not. NOW they will have to. My hope for the week is that FB's share price stabilizes around $75-$76. Then $85-$90 by that light Xmas week or two is very possible. $100, though, I don't think will be possible until they have a quarter that beats big. I think my timeline in terms of reaching $100 and beyond was pushed back 6 months at worst. Might not be possible end of Jan but defintely by end of April. Your comments and thoughts please?
Tracey what a pleasure to read your comments. Now I'm more excited than ever. You've pretty called it right since I started trading the stock, so you get the benefit of the doubt now. From your lips to Gods ears that it all plays out like you've written. I may have to teach you the hooty dance cause we'll both be doing it when FB hits $100 and beyond! ;-) LOL.
thanks hmmwhatgives... same to you... i hope to teach you the hooty dance if we do as well as I think we will! lol ;-)
Tracey never saw a response to my earlier post -- do you still think FB runs to $100 by Thanksgiving as you once posted a few months back? Interested in your opinion and your thoughts on the timeline it will take for the stock to reach the $100 milestone. Also some think the minute FB hits $100, a parabolic rise will ensue similar to what happened to GOOG. Thoughts?
All of what you write are valid points to consider. But you can overthink as well. Past mistakes, fear of crashes (seems you've been through three-me, one)... fear is a very very bad emotion to trade on. I've made a lot of mistakes reacting to fear. So what I do now is ignore the white noise and look at the performance of the company. That's it. I make the bet that the markets will remain stable and solvent for the time frame I have mind to be in this stock. Lets remember, as my brother-in-law put it, when you think the stock has reached full value, you sell, pay your taxes and move on. But it really isn't as simple as that. At least when it comes to FB. This company is just beginning. It has so many businesses that have yet to monetize I've lost count. So whatever it is doing now, $80.67 will be dwarfed IMHO to the 10th or 20th power once those other business start bringing in the revenue. Now the BIG question - How long will that take? And do I have the patience and staying power to stay in for that length of time? FULL VALUE will take years. In between, I will be withdrawing small amounts of shares to pay bills and whatnot. Every so often I will look for opportunities to sell high, and buy back in low with the hope of gaining those 5-10 points that my brother-in-law says is a bad idea. He doesn't think (and this the trader in him, which he has done professionally for 50 years) the lockup of 178 million shares as a result of the WhatsApp deal will pressure the share price. Frankly, I'm inclined NOT to agree with him. BUT this is the problem: if FB REALLY blows the hinges off the door at earnings, managements strategy of releasing 178 million shares could end up being brilliant. Instead of shares being sold off, they could be bought. One way to get into the $90s and even the $100s. I'm actually inclined to do nothing and your AAPL example is the best one. Same with other investments I've made. Would've made more if I had NOT gone in and out. So there you have it.
hmmmwhatgives... "There is one undisputable fact about FB. If you bought long, you have made money, the ultimate goal. Now what?" There is one piece of info I left out: my brother-in-law is a trader, hence his comments. But there is a bigger piece of the puzzle you failed to discuss in your post: FB's fair value. My bro-in-law said you sell when you feel FB has reached its full value. Short term, I think full value is $90. End of the year, $90-$100, beginning of the year (Jan-Feb $100-$115). My point being I don't see FB being fully valued for years from now. I truly believe in 5-6 years from now the stock will be trading anywhere from $300-$500 or more a share. Remember GOOG went from $84 to $700 in 3 years. And this is with half the revenue streams and businesses that FB has. So the short term question is: do I sell if FB hits $90 a share after this earnings call? This is the gamble that both your father and my brother-in-law says is troublesome. Yes, it's true there are a lot of negatives trying to guess the top and to buy back in later at a lower price. And will that lower price be worth it tax wise as there is a difference of 15% with short term gains and long term gains. I've done it once in 2010 with another stock and made an extra $144K. It was the best year I ever had financially. I think a lot of what happens during earnings and how high the share price goes will be determined by 4 things: 1) How big they beat EPS. WS says $.40. $.50 or higher will be viewed as a HUGE beat. 2) How big they beat on Revenue. WS says $3.12BILLION. $3.22BILLION or higher ($100 million more than WS suggests) will be viewed as a big beat. 3) Advertising dollars. WS says percentage of ads being bought dropping lower. If FB can prove them wrong and show they are actually increasing, this will be the biggest beat and the most important metric WS cares about. Video ads, ads on Instagram could help here. 4) Conference Call. If Zuck/Sandberg talk about NEW REVENUE STREAMS, watch out.
Great insight on WhatsApp. You've revealed where the monetization and revenue stream will come from. You have to put your mindset inside Zuckerberg's brain when you talk about this. It gives one an true understanding of why Zuckerberg has not flinched at spending $22 BILLION. Because if he is going to start offering international mobile calls through the App, he will make back that $22 BILLION in just a day with close to a billion users of WhatsApp. And you can guarentee that THE WORLD will rush to use WhatsApp for this. Analysts really have no clue about so many of FB's businesses and the amount of revenue that will be derived from every one of them. P.S. Working on my hooty dance moves (lol;-))
hmmwhatgives... here is what my brother-in-law writes about FB even with the 178 million shares flooding the market in just two-three days after earnings:
"Regarding the lockup, I don't think it will depress the stock. The action is fantastic. I don't believe you sell the stock to buy it back 7 or 8 points cheaper as most times, it is very hard to get it right or if you sell and it goes down 7 or 8, you start to think it will go down more, you hold off and are not able to re buy as when it lifts, you don't chase it. I have no insight on earnings but the action says the stock is going higher. So when do you sell? It is a decision you make when you feel the shares are close to fully valued, you make the sale, pay the tax and move on."
Frankly, I even question my brother-in-law's "fully valued" remark. FB has yet to monetize so many of it's businesses as of yet. Over a dozen of them or more that have yet to start bringing in revenue. But this earnings report will start to reveal that, start to talk about that, so truly, what price per share makes FB fully valued? If GOOG reached $1208 a share and those shares weren't fully valued even then, and FB has twice as many revenue streams coming than GOOG has ever had -- what does that tell you?