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Famous Dave's of America Inc. Message Board

casual_observer_27 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 19, 2014 10:05 AM Member since: Mar 6, 2013
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  • casual_observer_27 casual_observer_27 Oct 19, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    I'm sure you can find individual BBQ joints that make great BBQ. Famous Dave's value is it's brand. Short term Rensi is trying to make it more profitable with increased alcohol sales, efficient kitchens, trying to appeal to a wider group of diners. Time will tell on that. The earnings growth so far has been impressive. I personally think the company will be sold or taken private in a few years. As for food, its not like Olive Garden makes the best Italian food, or Outback Steakhouse has the best steaks, or Red Lobster has the best seafood, or Papa Johns has the best pizza.

  • casual_observer_27 casual_observer_27 Oct 17, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    I can't believe you used a Burger King reference when the obvious choice was the McRib.

  • casual_observer_27 casual_observer_27 Oct 17, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    Correction. A PE has to do with price and earnings and not with sales. DAVE has decided not to heavily discount their food through gimmicky deals. They've had earnings growth of 60% this year so far and if they meet consensus estimates this quarter, the year to date earnings growth will be 90%. Not bad. This stock is oversold right now mainly because it has been heavily shorted and not due to everyone suddenly predicting it's demise. Buy (or cover) now while you still can,

  • casual_observer_27 casual_observer_27 Oct 17, 2014 12:41 PM Flag

    Help me out with something. How does a BBQ chain win over 700 awards by serving smoke-free and fatty bbq? These are major competitions including one that has more than 500,000 attendees. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Another thing that does not make a lot of sense to me is to look at trailing PE. The company has grown earnings 60% this year so far and the consensus estimate for this quarter is for a 160% earnings growth. Seems pretty decent to me.

  • Reply to

    DAVE strong in a weak market

    by casual_observer_27 Oct 13, 2014 5:21 PM
    casual_observer_27 casual_observer_27 Oct 14, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    I've been thinking about shorting it based on all the great advice you've been giving. However, it seems too risky to short right now. With the company buyback still going on, MMs looking to add to their inventory before earnings, 725,000 shares already shorted, and the possibility of another hedge fund buying up a chunk of shares, there is still a lot of demand for the stock. Considering that only 11,000 shares have traded today, where is the availability going to come from to cover? I don't want to just hope for a bigger fool to short it at a lower price so that I can cover.

  • casual_observer_27 by casual_observer_27 Oct 13, 2014 5:21 PM Flag

    Smart money smells a squeeze coming.

  • Reply to

    Rensi Covered By Crains Chicago Business

    by appletonrocks Oct 6, 2014 10:18 AM
    casual_observer_27 casual_observer_27 Oct 13, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    I'm not interested in buying, just doing some due diligence. I visited the Bolingbrook location recently too and had to wait over an hour to get seated but it was well worth it. Famous Dave's continues to make the best ribs I've ever had and it no wonder they've won over 700 awards. Rensi has the place running smoothly and I can certainly see the EPS growth increasing over the next few years. The company will likely be sold eventually, probably in the 400m to 500m range.

  • Reply to

    Rensi Covered By Crains Chicago Business

    by appletonrocks Oct 6, 2014 10:18 AM
    casual_observer_27 casual_observer_27 Oct 11, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    DAVE has won over 700 awards for their BBQ and the food is what keeps people coming back. It has been the bad management in the past which has been the issue. The company certainly makes plenty of money, buying back more than a third of it's stock during the last recession so the market cap decreased 1/3 on that alone. Economy improving now so more disposable income to eat out. The company is at it's highest level ever of short interest already so very risky to short it. Decent earnings news soon could certainly lead to a squeeze.

  • Reply to

    Rensi Covered By Crains Chicago Business

    by appletonrocks Oct 6, 2014 10:18 AM
    casual_observer_27 casual_observer_27 Oct 10, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    EPS is up 60% this year due primarily to cutting expenses which can be done fairly quickly. It's going to take a while to decide what works best at the prototype Bolingbrook location. I'm hoping that they realize that pork belly is very popular among millennials and add sandwich/taco options if that is a target audience for sales improvement along with the 30 craft beers they've added. Not healthy but would definitely help sales. Longs are kind of holding right now waiting for the next earnings news. With 725k shares already short, it gets kind of risky to short this microcap stock so not thinking there will be a ton more shorting.

  • casual_observer_27 by casual_observer_27 Aug 9, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    64% earnings growth is pretty good do far this year. A good amount of this comes on the expense side by downsizing upper management and trimming other G&A expense. Sales have been somewhat week due to discontinuation of promotions (as explained in the conference call). The company has paused expansion of new stores until the prototype new DAVE store in Bolingbrook can be analyzed to see what is working and what is providing the best customer experience. 2015 is the year DAVE will start growing top line revenue. If DAVE was a sports team, I would call this a rebuilding year. However, sports teams usually have bad records during rebuilding years and DAVE having a 64% earning growth so far this year is outstanding.

  • casual_observer_27 by casual_observer_27 Aug 9, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    I listened to the conference call to get an idea of the direction DAVE will be going considering the entire board of directors, CEO and CFO have changed over the last year. A lot of the discussion was around the new prototype DAVE location in Bolingbrook, IL. Dave is dumping the old country store décor (ala Cracker Barrel) in favor for a contemporary space with more open areas with big screen T.V.s, indoor/outdoor seating with fire pits, and expanded bar menu. I especially like the 30 craft beers available. They are obviously looking to attract a younger crowd and expand bar sales. They are going to have a special event with some Chicago Bear players which makes me wonder if they are also going after BWLD customers for sports viewing. I personally love the burnt ends and would rather have those than BWLD wings any day during a ball game. The kitchen at the prototype location is also more automated for efficiency. Over the next 6 months they will see what is working best in the new location and start rolling out to existing/new stores in 2015.

  • casual_observer_27 by casual_observer_27 Jul 28, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    With 724k shares short and only 12k shares traded today, is it really worth the risk with the company reporting earnings on Wednesday? You'd better be sure it's going to be horrible earnings which I doubt will be the case.

  • casual_observer_27 by casual_observer_27 Jul 28, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    Before the last post was deleted, the question came up on whether DAVE will be going private. For me, that is a foregone conclusion. Why else bring in a retired CEO of McDonalds and a new CFO which has a history of acquisitions in the restaurant industry. These guys are not going to stick around. They're going to make the company as profitable as they can before selling. Every board member who has been replaced over the last year mostly by hedge fund managers who have no intention of staying on long term. Here is the background on the CFO: 'Pawlowski has experience in acquisition and turnaround strategies, particularly with regard to restaurant companies, and was most recently CEO and co-founder of Capitol C Holdings, LLC, a restaurant development, acquisition and operating company. Previously, Richard worked with Bain & Company. Richard earned his MBA from Harvard Business School and undergraduate degree in Engineering in Metallurgy, Economics and Management from the University of Oxford. '

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