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Famous Dave's of America Inc. Message Board

casual_observer_27 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 9, 2014 9:56 AM Member since: Mar 6, 2013
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  • casual_observer_27 casual_observer_27 Jun 3, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    If I remember correctly, O'Donnell and Purcell renegotiated their severance packages when they realized it was inevitable that they were going to get terminated. I think it was one year pay for each for their severance. The real severance package is ongoing as Purcel has been dumping all her shares (acquired for free through stock options) in the last week. She sold 45,000 on May 27 and May 28 as the last squeeze was starting to take hold. She has been selling since that time and has around 23,000 shares remaining (which may have already been sold and not reported yet). There was a pre-market sale of 20,000 shares yesterday which may have been her. Once her shares are gone, the price will start creeping up again.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • casual_observer_27 by casual_observer_27 Jun 3, 2014 4:44 PM Flag

    The build your own barbeque promotion which has just started was mentioned in the last conference call. It was mentioned by Rensi to bring more people in for lunch following the successful promotion of a S. Dakota franchisee who did good sales in his '7 for under $7' promotion. It's good to see how quickly Rensi can take an idea and run with it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Current quarter looking solid.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • casual_observer_27 by casual_observer_27 Jun 25, 2014 7:57 AM Flag

    SAB Capital latest hedge fund to buy in, now owning over 9% of shares. Do you want to bet with them and be long or bet against them? The short interest numbers at the end of the week will be interesting because I thought the 475k shares that the 2 new directors divested gave the shorts a chance to cover but it appears those shares ended up in the hands of SAB.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Taking Profits or Crash?

    by mikewrites12000 Jun 16, 2014 4:20 PM
    casual_observer_27 casual_observer_27 Jun 17, 2014 8:32 AM Flag

    Two recently appointed directors, Adam Wright and Patrick Walsh, who came from hedge funds dumped 475,000 shares last week. Not sure if they were taking profits, covering margin, or having anything to do with their new board seats. Short interest is still growing, up to 541,000 shares so still some potential covering to be done. Considering there are only 7,000,000 shares outstanding and 475,000 got dumped last week, there was bound to be some downward pressure on the price. Once they are done selling, we'll level off. Nothing having to do with operations though. Obviously the directors can't be dumping stock on some kind of insider knowledge because it is illegal.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Shorts need to cover while they can

    Sentiment: Buy

  • casual_observer_27 by casual_observer_27 Aug 9, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    64% earnings growth is pretty good do far this year. A good amount of this comes on the expense side by downsizing upper management and trimming other G&A expense. Sales have been somewhat week due to discontinuation of promotions (as explained in the conference call). The company has paused expansion of new stores until the prototype new DAVE store in Bolingbrook can be analyzed to see what is working and what is providing the best customer experience. 2015 is the year DAVE will start growing top line revenue. If DAVE was a sports team, I would call this a rebuilding year. However, sports teams usually have bad records during rebuilding years and DAVE having a 64% earning growth so far this year is outstanding.

  • casual_observer_27 by casual_observer_27 Jun 9, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    Bullish if you're long DAVE right now. Not a good sign if you're short. With volume so low, at what cost do the 495,000 shares which are short get covered?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • casual_observer_27 by casual_observer_27 Jul 28, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    With 724k shares short and only 12k shares traded today, is it really worth the risk with the company reporting earnings on Wednesday? You'd better be sure it's going to be horrible earnings which I doubt will be the case.

  • casual_observer_27 by casual_observer_27 Aug 9, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    I listened to the conference call to get an idea of the direction DAVE will be going considering the entire board of directors, CEO and CFO have changed over the last year. A lot of the discussion was around the new prototype DAVE location in Bolingbrook, IL. Dave is dumping the old country store décor (ala Cracker Barrel) in favor for a contemporary space with more open areas with big screen T.V.s, indoor/outdoor seating with fire pits, and expanded bar menu. I especially like the 30 craft beers available. They are obviously looking to attract a younger crowd and expand bar sales. They are going to have a special event with some Chicago Bear players which makes me wonder if they are also going after BWLD customers for sports viewing. I personally love the burnt ends and would rather have those than BWLD wings any day during a ball game. The kitchen at the prototype location is also more automated for efficiency. Over the next 6 months they will see what is working best in the new location and start rolling out to existing/new stores in 2015.

  • casual_observer_27 by casual_observer_27 Jul 28, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    Before the last post was deleted, the question came up on whether DAVE will be going private. For me, that is a foregone conclusion. Why else bring in a retired CEO of McDonalds and a new CFO which has a history of acquisitions in the restaurant industry. These guys are not going to stick around. They're going to make the company as profitable as they can before selling. Every board member who has been replaced over the last year mostly by hedge fund managers who have no intention of staying on long term. Here is the background on the CFO: 'Pawlowski has experience in acquisition and turnaround strategies, particularly with regard to restaurant companies, and was most recently CEO and co-founder of Capitol C Holdings, LLC, a restaurant development, acquisition and operating company. Previously, Richard worked with Bain & Company. Richard earned his MBA from Harvard Business School and undergraduate degree in Engineering in Metallurgy, Economics and Management from the University of Oxford. '

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