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Skechers USA Inc. Message Board

catch83sails 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 12:52 PM Member since: Jul 21, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Cramer

    by vincent90157 Dec 23, 2014 6:50 PM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 24, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    Took my medicine and covered (oh well another lesson learned with me shorting stocks). Looked like as you stated, not many interested in selling what they had nor much interest today in taking it back down. Covered at $19.94 for a thirty four cent per share lose, so not much damage done and at three times normal volume on a half day of trading I did not trust the risk/reward any further than a percent or two lose.

    Actually sold a single naked Jan $20 put for $.90 to keep the stock on my screen in IRA and get on the long side. Wish I had found this before the Cramer mention, but better late than never. I remembered Cramer pumping SKX not so long ago and it taking off the next day and it has not looked back, so hope he found another gem here.

    GL and Merry Christmas to all here.

  • Reply to

    Cramer

    by vincent90157 Dec 23, 2014 6:50 PM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 23, 2014 8:01 PM Flag

    Thanks for the info, not overly familiar with the stock, so need to do some dd tonight and early AM before final decision to go seriously long

    I will post my cover price just for kicks. Still might get burned, we'll see.

    GLTU and all

  • Reply to

    Cramer

    by vincent90157 Dec 23, 2014 6:50 PM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 23, 2014 7:43 PM Flag

    Thought I would give the trade a shot, only fourth time I have ever shorted a stock in 15 years of investing and if it takes off up I will remember why I do not do it often, LOL.

    I actually kind of agree with Cramer on this one for the long term, as moving the product has nothing to do with the price of the product when it is cheap. Hold NAT and KMI on the long side, with KMI a long term core position in portfolio playing the same thesis as here.

    We'll see, but when I cover I will likely simply go long with a few shares to start a position.

  • Reply to

    Cramer

    by vincent90157 Dec 23, 2014 6:50 PM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 23, 2014 7:35 PM Flag

    Shorted

  • Reply to

    Cramer

    by vincent90157 Dec 23, 2014 6:50 PM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 23, 2014 7:01 PM Flag

    Be careful IMO, it can wait until regular hours tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow another 10% down

    by john.ohare88 Dec 22, 2014 6:14 PM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 23, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    You are not the only one it gives an opportunity. This can be found on page 33 of the latest 10-Q.

    We began repurchases under our 2014 Program in October 2014. We intend to use the additional authorization to repurchase shares opportunistically and to offset the dilution created by shares issued under employee stock plans.

    This can be found on the text of the 8-K dated Nov 17.3014

    The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the sale of the Notes for general corporate purposes, which may include the repayment of certain of the Company’s indebtedness, debt-related payments, working capital and the repurchase of its outstanding common stock pursuant to its authorized share repurchase program.

    That capital raise was $4 billion I think.
    With both these facts in mind, one has to remember they can only buy back 25% of the last 10 trading days average volume, thus the heavy volume at lower prices would only help the cause as the daily average goes up.

  • Reply to

    Screaming fire in a theater

    by dklatt1012 Dec 22, 2014 10:28 AM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 22, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    $93.83 here, I had taken profits on some long term shares and bought them back for a quick trade. I will let them go again if your day closing target hits.

    GLTA longs

  • Reply to

    ABBV up only 30 cents in pre-market

    by beeperboy53 Dec 22, 2014 9:21 AM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 22, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    Express Scripts IMO is laying down the hammer and just proved they can on anyone where competition is available.

    As for Express Scripts stock (which I know nothing about) are their contracts cost plus? I have no idea, but if so they just knocked down their revenues and EPS, again IMO.

  • Reply to

    Cramer A BALD JOKE-

    by mppm043088 Dec 22, 2014 9:22 AM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 22, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Not pro nor anti Cramer really, but do you want his opinion to be the same when the facts change?

    Not recognizing that the facts have changed this morning would not be wise IMO.

  • Reply to

    ABBV up only 30 cents in pre-market

    by beeperboy53 Dec 22, 2014 9:21 AM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 22, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    Just ask this question in another post.

    My take is the market realizes that ABBV is not going to make much money on the drug now. Yes they will make some, but what happens when GILD counters with the other suppliers to be sure they do not get undercut? No company makes money on hepC going forward.

  • Guess the question is if GILD is losing 12% of it's market cap, why is ABBV only gaining 4% at this writing?

    I know ABBV has run, but part of that should have simply been getting the drug approved, so this development is not benefitting ABBV near what it is hurting GILD. Could be market realizes no one is going to make any money now.

  • Reply to

    Jan options activity

    by catch83sails Dec 19, 2014 10:27 AM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 21, 2014 10:51 PM Flag

    Wild guesses on my part, as it could be any combination of things we will never know.

    A short getting ready to cover could have sold the puts and bought the calls, as they would likely move the price higher as they got out.

    Someone just getting long could have bought the puts for protection and sold a few calls to offset the cost and take some quick profits if the price goes up.

    With Dec options having just expired yesterday, these will be front month and begin to lose time premium more quickly, could be someone sold them all just to pick up the premium (but this stock could move quickly for such a trade to be put on).

    The RSI showed the stock extremely oversold, so I lean to the first guess

    Who knows, just guesses on my part, but I would lean to the first one if I had to place a bet.

  • catch83sails by catch83sails Dec 19, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    Someone bought or sold over 13K Jan $40 puts this morning and someone bought or sold 2K Jan $42 calls this morning. They are both new positions as the open interest is not high on either strike.

    Just info

  • catch83sails catch83sails Dec 19, 2014 7:36 AM Flag

    Does it have to be an idiotic call if someone picked up the phone and said "get me XX million SDRL under $12"? Not saying this is what happened this time and I am quite hacked off it happened as I did not buy back my Dec $12 naked puts yesterday for a nickel, but that is fine I can live with netting in the stock as $11.25 as there comes a point book value means something, regardless of Goldman Sacks opinion, as you are correct about the chairman paying more per share than I am going to.

    GLTU

  • Reply to

    Three concerns here still

    by sd1440 Dec 16, 2014 6:20 PM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 16, 2014 8:35 PM Flag

    Not in this one as yet, but looking to add it to SDRL, NE and PGN(spun off from NE). The ride has been painful, so besides the advice you already got from others, I would just share that scaling in is the way I will go if I decide to build a position in this one. The stock has been hammered and even if oil prices and/or the stock start to climb there is plenty of room back to the top (which could take some time). It also would not put me exposed with a total position to a dividend cut announcement and bloodbath like SDRL took. I might even sell a naked put or two as they show a lot of volatility (selling Jan $15 put at today's closing bid of $.96 would net me in at $14.04). The problem with selling naked puts are two fold, first being the stock could go down quickly and you could have bought more cheaply in the long run (so you need to know you would have bought anyway at your net entry price) or second the stock could go up or not go below $15 (in the example I used) and you would only make the profit you sold the put for (not a terrible problem, but you would not have the stock). I only use naked puts when I am building a position and scaling in and would not recommend them as a way to try and buy a full position, but to each their own. You might want to take a look at the SDRL chart to see what can happen if the dividend gets cut here, I know I if I decide to buy any of this, I will not have near a full position until I know the decision they make concerning it. Of course all just my opinion and I agree with one of the other posters about reading the board being fine, but be sure your decision is made after you have gathered all the facts for yourself.

    Good luck

  • Reply to

    who is buying?

    by origwork4love Dec 9, 2014 8:40 AM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 9, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    You might want to keep in mind, after the announcement about the two new ships to be built, that they will likely issue shares to pay for them. That has at least been the repeating game plan in the past at roughly $10 per share. I am not saying it is good or bad, just reminding everyone how they have handled financing in the past.

    I would guess 13 to 15 million shares in the next couple of years (just for these two ships).

  • Reply to

    my pre-market order does not get executed

    by hohans Dec 9, 2014 7:46 AM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 9, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    I use TD Ameritrade and can not trade PM until 8AM.

  • Reply to

    Market punishing us

    by typea1949 Dec 5, 2014 6:31 AM
    catch83sails catch83sails Dec 5, 2014 8:45 AM Flag

    There were many on this board calling for a cut to the dividend and I suspect most knew one was coming, but did not expect complete elimination (I know that was my thought process, but as usual I was wrong). Too the chairman's credit, he had also bought millions of dollars worth of the stock before the cut and the decision was still made, so benefit of the doubt on the cut being needed? maybe.

    In the same release concerning the dividend and buying back debt it was also mentioned that they would buyback shares. If management wants to gain back at least some credibility with the investing world, they could issue a PR announcing how many shares they have bought during this down turn and/or some of them could step to the plate and actually buy some shares off the open market as the chairman has already done with their own cash, even of only small amounts, it would show they believe in the company long term. All JMO of course.

  • catch83sails catch83sails Nov 6, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    I have over 40 stocks that pay me 4% or higher (at my cost basis) as well as smaller percentage dividend payer and non dividend payers that are growth plays. To each their own, but I would not try and place everyone in the same bucket. Age, tax brackets, life style, etc all could and should influence how one diversifies their portfolio IMO, so I can understand some wanting companies that grow and reinvest in the business or balance sheet.

    One other point, there are many dividend paying stocks that grow and while the value of the company does drop by the amount of the dividend that is paid each time, a bird in the hand takes care of that much of your profits should things go sour like is happening with the drillers now. I can say from experience that playing with house money on dividend paying stocks is a nice feeling.

    All JMO of course.

  • Reply to

    GALE Most Undervalued stock for immunotherapy

    by dobald1975 Nov 4, 2014 8:32 AM
    catch83sails catch83sails Nov 4, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    I found this interesting, it was in one of the articles posted on yahoo.

    In the final minutes of trading on Monday, the company's shares hit $1.91. A year ago, they were trading at $2.14.

    So simple math puts the stock down roughly 11% in a year. I do not know, but wonder what the percentage rate is to borrow the shares. Does not look like much profit in a market that is growing, but I suppose the same could be said for the long side sitting with money tied up waiting. The difference (to me anyway) is the lottery ticket factor if even one of their formulas works. Of course the drawing for said lottery is a couple of years out in the future, but I suspect most of the serious longs year have the same attitude and the stock is a spec.

    Truth be told, I also suspect most of the bashers here are paid to help someone buy cheaper lottery tickets as well. The math on a $2 down, infinity up bet is not worth the interest rate being paid for the shares at this point, in my opinion anyway.

SKX
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