I bought a little this afternoon and yes the deal could fall through and I could get burned, but figured I would take the flier for the 9% gain by next year and collect a couple more bucks in dividends while I wait. If the deal tanks, at least it should hold it's value for the next little bit while the oil and gas situation works it's way out. Of course if the market settles and this drifts up near the sell out price, I will likely just take the gains and sell it.
One point about it not going up. Some will sell the minute the deal is announced to people who did what I did this afternoon. Others may well have sold because they needed to sell anything that had a profit to prevent margin calls or maybe between the gain here, they could dump another and escape the day even (obviously all guesses on my part).
Technical analysis will not matter when accounting issues are involved until the institutions have cleaned out what they own and the company has a whole new group of share holders, IMO. Institutions got more to do than worry about accounting issues and any one company will seldom be enough of a holding to move the needle for their entire fund, so they shoot first and ask questions later.
Sorry the longs (including myself) got caught up in this. Last one I saw which was similar was Diamond Foods a few years back and before all the smoke cleared the CEO and CFO had both been fired and the company still has not completely regained the trust of many of it's suppliers, even though the new CEO and CFO are straight shooters and the company is growing legitimately now. Maybe this will happen for ANFI in the future and/or they are able to clear their name if they have done nothing wrong, but my point is, it will not matter for the next few days, IMO.
GL longs and for disclosure I dumped all shares last night in AH, but am still exposed with a few naked puts for Aug and Sept and I will likely not get put any of the stock this Friday on the Aug ones no matter what the loss, but will watch the Sept ones for a while to try and catch a day I cut my loses a little.
No it is calendar days. From the Form 20-F they did file. Wish you were right.
Amira Nature Foods Ltd (the “Company”) was unable to file its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended March 31, 2015 (the “Annual Report”) on a timely basis due to the Company requiring additional time to work internally with its staff and externally with its independent auditors to prepare and finalize the Annual Report. The Company anticipates it will file the Annual Report no later than the fifteenth calendar day following the prescribed filing date.
When (if) they file a PR, my guess (and it is more a wish) is that them not filing the report might have something to do with lawyering up against the shorts. Of course the auditors might be balking, as the market certainly thinks has happened, IMO anyway.
Just throwing out a thought or two.
I could not find much detail either, sorry that did not help. The first two I read were as you say and told more what the stock had done rather than the reasons for the downgrade.
My guess on the undervaluation. The analyst have earnings and revs for next year, ever so slightly under what they have them for this year. That will make the stock a show me situation (which I happen to think it will do), as the market wants high growth out of these bio companies.
I would point out however that if one takes a look at a three year chart, they would see quite an excellent steady growth in price, so probably not a great trading stock IMO, as there are others which move more quickly up and down for less investment, again JMO.
I responded to your post, as you seem to be on to how the system works and understand it.
She is actually in some cases, exercising options and/or rolling them, which means she just lets the broker exercise the whole options at a set price (the last one I saw cost her $18 and change and she then sold it for $40 something, I did not look at the exact amounts). She did however it appears exercise 125K shares and only sell 100K shares, this likely cleared her enough money to payoff the remaining 25K shares and the tax owed on the profit for the entire 125K shares optioned. This would mean that she could have stuck $40+ per share times 25K in her pocket, but it appears she road the price down with the rest of the shareholders by holding those 25K shares.
Most of the other sales I found were restricted stock units, which likely often have a set date they vest (in my experience anyway). All those look like as they vested the company sold off enough shares to cover the tax owed (about half) and she keep the rest of the stock and has take the hit on the shares she held like the rest of the share holders.
I do not know the inter workings of Yahoo, but I do know in general how the above works for most companies. Unless I missed an out and out sale of share in the last six or seven months in the form4s, she is not doing anything everyone on this board would not do if given the opportunity, in all likelihood.
In short, she appears to be holding what she can without using her own money to get shares free, but she could be pocketing that free money by simply selling off the free shares as well.
Only post I will make about it, but IMO the above is what she is doing.
Some here either do not know how to read a form4 or do and hope the BS they spread may have an affect.
Is she worth the shares she was issued? Pretty simple answer really, if she is not, hit the sell button. There are plenty of other stocks to buy if you do not like a CEO.
GLTA the longs here.
Agree on the Ds being best buy. I probably have enough at risk with those for any one stock/bond for my comfort level.
I looked at the Cs strictly because I believe GE made a comment implying once he would like to get rid of those. They would be a trade if he pulls all this stuff off and called them in, or I could live with being stuck with them if he got the balance sheet in better shape.
More a divy hoe at this point in life, but am not above trading a small percentage of portfolio from time to time.
GL and thanks again for the input here.
Thanks for reply, that is as I remember it now. Like I said was just throwing out ideas on what might be going on. I could be WAY off base with my guess.
GLTA longs here, for disclosure. I am not in the common, only the preferred D and trying for some C this morning but never got filled.
Correct me if I am wrong, but seems I remember Gary saying they were looking at several to buy the pipeline that were not their competitors.
That said (and this may be way out there), what if "The Fund" is also the buyer of the pipeline and wanted the letter of intent in place to be sure they had the future shipments locked up when they give back production to MHR, or whomever the buyer is wanted to know they had more production flowing before they would give a final signoff on the pipeline deal. Might be some hand shake deals going on before the final deals are put in place.
Again, just throwing out a couple of thoughts.
Found in news in Ameritrade account, so could not post link, but you are right. If anyone wants to search it they can just put in the headline above and it has been posted on many sites a couple of hours ago.
Amira Retains Kasowitz and Commences Legal Action Against Market Manipulators
9:20 am ET August 11, 2015 (BusinessWire) Print
Amira Nature Foods Ltd (NYSE:ANFI), a leading global provider of branded packaged Indian specialty rice, announced today that it has retained the law firm Kasowitz, Benson, Torres & Friedman, LLP to investigate and pursue claims against those who have been disseminating material false, misleading, and defamatory information about Amira and engaging in other serious misconduct against the Company.
As part of this effort, Amira has today filed a lawsuit against Prescience Point Research Group, LLC, Prescience Investment Group, LLC, Spruce Point Capital Management, LLC, Ben Axler, and Eiad Asbahi in Supreme Court, New York County seeking damages and injunctive relief for defamation, trade libel, civil conspiracy, tortious interference, including but not limited to interference with banking, auditors, investors, and capital market relationships. The suit also names various "John Doe" defendants who will be identified and joined as the Kasowitz's investigation unfolds.
"After great patience, we have concluded that we must act to protect our Company, our people, and our investors from this vicious cabal of market manipulators and their lies and other egregious misconduct," explained Karan A Chanana, Chairman of Amira Nature Foods
Not my business at all, but you might want to check with your tax guy about having too much of this income in an IRA. I know both my brokers and my tax guy have advised against having more than $1K income in IRAs from reits and MLPs.
It all depends on your personal situation, but I am certain there are crazy tax things that can possibly happen down the road in certain situations.
Again, not my business, just wanted to throw out a heads up in case you were unaware, as I was not until one of my brokers alerted me to the issue.
I have this in IRA as a result, but on a more limited basis and put the rest in regular brokerage accounts.
GLTU and all longs here.
Maybe selling it for MHR?
Just a wild guess, but if I still needed $9 million to meet my minimum obligation to my creditors, I would make sure I had that bird in the hand, in case I could not sell the pipeline in time. Today would have been excellent time to have that trade already in place and judging by your post you have not seen these guys involved this heavily the last few days.
Like I said, a wild guess.
One thing to at least consider. Relational had their share loaned out and called them in, thus the spike Friday and again Tuesday. It would take a tremendous amount of naked shorting or finding more shares to short, if that is indeed what happened, to hold this in check while enough shares were bought up to return borrowed shares.
Just a guess and certainly speculation on my part, but a little mini squeeze would explain a lot and it might not be over of Relational loaned out all their shares. If MHR is going to sell shares to raise the rest of the cash, it would also be a good time to sell right into a short squeeze and at least get a little better price per share. Again a guess.
From the KEG board
rchites • 12 hours ago Flag
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Mhr had 30% shorts and hedges can not short for a couple days.
It is under this thread, but to answer your question I have not seen the last short report under NASDAQ site, it still shows May 29.
SURVIVAL with Leverage Ratio at 15x ? IMPOSSIBLE
I lean to $4.24 and certainly expect no more than $4.32, hope I am low on both numbers, but do not have my hopes up.
A quick look at SGYP this morning might give a hint to what can happen to the short side of the trade when the Interim Data finally comes out.
One broker I have already received the fractional part, one I have not.
I am going to give them another day or two to clear the paperwork up before I call, but a call to your broker should clear it up.