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Seabridge Gold, Inc. Message Board

cats_paw_kid 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 9, 2015 3:47 PM Member since: Jun 14, 2007
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  • cats_paw_kid by cats_paw_kid Jan 9, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Gold not selling off (but, even going up) in the face of a very strong Dollar ... and plunging oil prices. This is unusual ... to say the least.

    BUT, the best thing about the strong Dollar: when the Dollar starts to plunge (which I believe it will ... as the "smart money" commercials are on the other side of the trade) that will be very supportive for gold ... and provide a motive for it to start heading upwards towards the $14/15 hundred Dollar range.

  • Reply to

    This stock will go to zero.

    by alahendrix Nov 21, 2014 2:08 PM
    cats_paw_kid cats_paw_kid Jan 9, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    What technicals are you talking about, Dolph?

    I've been looking really hard for technicals that provide 100% certainty. Would sure like to know. Please advise.

  • Reply to

    SA: a Volatile stock that is now VERY cheap

    by the_copper_roof Dec 26, 2014 12:46 PM
    cats_paw_kid cats_paw_kid Jan 5, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    Gold now going up ... even as the DOLLAR continues to rise. This is not what happened in 2014 ... indicating that the market has a much more positive attitude towards gold --- perhaps seeing now that with all the central banks providing monetary stimulus, gold might be a good place to be???

  • Ball Park figures for the KSM project

    Just based on current metal reserves (at approximately today's prices) the KSM project will be producing revenues of $1 to 1.2 billion dollars a year --- for 50 years.

    The payback for the initial $5.5 Billion investment might be anywhere from 6 to 9 years depending on various factors.

    The cost of mining the gold (after including the value of the other extracted metals) just little north of $700 per ounce ... ball parking production at 1million ounces of gold per year.

    If the price of gold goes up to $2000 an ounce, KSM will be generating some very VERY impressive profits for whoever is involved with the project. I can imagine, in 5 years, the price of gold being much higher than that.

  • Reply to

    can this company keep from being taken over

    by rnsawaya Dec 19, 2014 8:58 AM
    cats_paw_kid cats_paw_kid Dec 19, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    I believe that INSIDERS (with the addition of institutional supporters) control a majority of the outstanding shares --- so that there could NOT easily be a hostile takeover.

    On the other hand, the company needs a huge cash infusion (over $5 billion) to implement the KSM project ... for which they will probably have to give up control. I'm pretty sure there is a consensus price figure the insiders have in mind that would "inspire" them to give up control. Probably somewhere north of $60 per share.

    Obviously market sentiment does not support that kind of price right now ... but could easily do so with a 3 to 4 hundred $$$$ change in the price of gold. At that point in time the millions of ounces of gold ... and the billions of pounds of copper will be of great interest to some of the major mining corporations. And a bidding war could ensue.

  • At the Seabridge Website there are 2 audio presentations given recently by the CEO and the COO. In the course of these 30-minute presentations the environmental approval process was mentioned.

    They have been working on the approval process for 6 years. It involves a 30,000 page document. It' already been approved by the provincial authorities. And, from what I could gather, has also been vetted by the federal authorities (working in conjunction with Seabridge). They have also approved it. So, right now the approval document sits on the desk of the federal administrator who is ultimately responsible ... awaiting her final signature. So, it's done ... but not quite done.

    And that is where we stand right now.

  • As it is, when buying SA ... you are buying gold for $3 an ounce (under normal market conditions for gold, or bullish market conditions "investors" will pony up much, much more than that for gold in the ground. For example, when gold was at the same price it is today several years ago SA was priced around $28 a share ... and the KSM project has advanced quite a bit since then). But the market was "bullish" then ... instead of bearish. It's all about the sentiment ... and the prevailing story line. It was all potential inflation back then ... in 2011. Now the story has to do with the strong dollar and deflation. But these market "stories" are usually fictions. They are not real. "Investors" act on them, however ... until the story changes. Then they follow the new story. The bearish story for gold is about 3 years old now ... it's had a pretty long run. About due for a change.

    BUT ... today's announcement confirms last year's Deep Kerr drilling results (that is to say, it's really real --- there's a lot more gold, silver, and copper in the ground than was previously known) ... and last year's totals of an additional 500 million tonnes of ore is going to be officially expanded once again, early next year.

  • Just in case some people on this board may be interested in an objective calculation concerning the actual value of KSM --- you will notice there is a slide presentation under HEADLINES on the Yahoo Summary Page for Seabridge.

    If you check slide 15 --- that is the summary of a feasibility study for the KSM project, and it calculates the Net Present Value of the KSM mine --- what KSM is worth right now.

    They have three different numbers ... because some of the inputs to the calculation are variable (i.e. the price of precious metals, etc.). The results are $3.5 billion --- $4.5 billion --- and $7.7 billion.

    So, management is going to be trying to get some sort of figure like those when they make a deal with some third party (they are in on-going talks with many big players right now): That is --- 10 to 20 times more than the current market cap.

  • cats_paw_kid by cats_paw_kid Nov 3, 2014 7:09 AM Flag

    Just to give an idea of to what degree markets are controlled by sentiment ... and pure irrationality:

    Back in 2010/11 ... when gold was the same price that it is right now ... Seabridge was selling between $20 and $30 dollars a share.

    Yet, it was nowhere near as valuable then ... as it is right now.

    Gold stocks were bullish then .... bearish now. In each case "Investors" felt confident in their pricing of the stock.

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