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Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. Message Board

caustic_fred 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 8, 2015 11:32 PM Member since: Jan 3, 2010
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  • In case you've forgotten, you can search for many Musk interview from early 2014 regrading his projections for sales in China. The 5/7/2014 Forbes article by Mark Rogowsky states:

    Musk recently visited China and was overwhelmed by the goodwill he received there from the government, consumers, et al. He expects that China will eventually become the biggest market for the company and in the short run, “I really don’t think we’ve got any kind of demand challenge in China… I really was blown away.”

    One interview after another, Musk pinned Tesla's future growth on China and all those millions and millions of people. He was keep to point out how China has many more people than the USA, and thus growth would be unbounded. When will investors wake up and realize they've been hoodwinked by a master illusionist?

  • Tesla envisioned others would pay at least half the gigafactory construction costs. From the 10-Q filed 5/9/2014: “The total capital expenditures associated with the Tesla Gigafactory through 2020 are expected to be $4-5 billion, of which approximately $2 billion is expected to come from Tesla”.

    Musk has grossly misrepresented commitments from Panasonic. Please refer to a 3/6/2015 Fortune article titled “Panasonic’s Power Play”. From the article:

    Musk has publicly said that he expects his battery partner to provide about 40% of the giga-factory’s total cost, which would be $2 billion. Tsuga [Panasonic President] says he has committed no 10-figure check, and that Panasonic plans to invest in eight stages, starting with an initial tranche of $300 million. The total (and timing) is subject to change, says Tsuga: “If the demand for Tesla cars becomes less than their expectation, we simply have to slow down our investment, that’s all.”

    The 5/9/2014 10-Q promised that discussions with “other potential production and supply chain partners continue to progress well.”

    The 8/8/2014 10-Q: “Additional Gigafactory partners for production of cell precursor materials will be announced in the coming months to create a fully integrated industrial complex.”

    The 11/7/2014 10-Q: “Additional Gigafactory partners will be finalized shortly to create a fully integrated industrial complex.”

    The 2/26/2015 10-K finally gets honest: “to date we have not finalized agreements with additional Gigafactory partners that will be co-located at the Gigafactory.”

    So where are all the gigafactor partners that Tesla promised in May of 2014? Maybe they’re on vacation, along with the customers. A long, long vacation.

  • In years past, Niska Gas Storage customers bought cheap gas in the summer, paid NKA to store the gas, and sold that gas at higher prices in the winter.

    The fracking boom applied a steady downward trend on top of the season pattern. Recognizing the downtrend in 2014, NKA’s customers no longer wanted to store gas for the winter since spot price would clearly be lower in winter. In 3Q2014 NKA experienced withdrawals to the point that gas pressure ran too low. Every week since, the U.S. EIA reported additional withdrawals.

    On Monday, NKA will report that 4Q2014 gas storage levels were lower than ever, NKA burned cash losses every day, and the dividend has been suspended.

    In January, oil tanker ship companies like Frontline signed long-term contracts to rent out tanker ships to speculators buying “cheap” oil now to store it until prices are higher. While I doubt that the oil speculators will profit, the tanker owners have locked in highly profitable storage rates. Stock speculators bid up NKA while imaging that a similar speculative storage phenomenon must be occurring with natural gas. While it’s true that oil speculators are buying storage capacity, the U.S. EIA reports make it clear that gas continues to come out of storage. The NKA speculators are in for a nasty surprise on Monday. So is everyone that was expecting continued dividends. Monday will be a bloodbath for NKA shareholders.

    Have a nice weekend.

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