The problem with GuNK is clearly not the sector fundamentals or the sector sentiment.
Don't try to guess at a bottom, because there's no guarantee that there will ever be a bottom. Like I said before, you should wait to buy when the stock is rising. Between now and the end of the year you'll see tax loss selling weight down the stock.
The real question is on the details of whatever debt deal they can negotiate. I'm sure that the company will survive, but not sure of what fractional ownership the current shareholder will get.
Yes, anything can happen. Investors need to consider the impact of each potential path on their investment. Then estimate the probability of each path and calculate a mean expected value. That's what I did, and I felt very lucky to have the opportunity to buy this morning.
Are you aware of investment opportunities that are a sure thing?
Back on 8/29/2013 olddoc132000 predicted that GuNK would drop to $1.87. He that that if you must buy, you should be patient and wait for $1.87. He posted this many times, and each time his prediction was met with ridicule.
The novices here need to realize that you can't randomly initiate a speculative position and then argue or vote a stock upward. Instead, you should be trying to predict whether a stock will move up or down in the future and then place your bet in that direction. Most importantly, when you're wrong you need to realize this and look for a way to improve your predictive ability. Since olddoc132000 was clearly better than you before, perhaps you should be asking him for advice now.
Perhaps you should have bought BALT instead.
GNK to $10 by Christmas? Really? It's ironic that you keep claiming that the SEC should be investigating other people for posting false information.
The best-case for Oaktree is to convert EGLE's ordinary debt into preferred convertible shares that pay high interest but could be converted into a majority ownership of the company. In that scenario the possible future outcomes are:
1. EGLE is a huge success, which results in increased share price and decreased risk to creditors. Oaktree keeps the preferred and collects high interest on low-risk debt, while the value of their preferred stock soars. They would only convert to ordinary shares in the case of a buyout offer.
2. EGLE survives, but only marginally. Oaktree continues to collect high interest on high-risk debt. This is the most likely case, given current market conditions.
3. EGLE cash flow from operations is insufficient to pay interest on the preferred shares. Oaktree can allow the unpaid interest to accrue, waiting for a better drybulk market, or can push EGLE into bankruptcy.
Oaktree would like to get interest bearing convertible preferred shares because they act like debt in bad times and equity in good times. What is best for Oaktree is not best for current shareholders. The negotiations are a zero-sum game which is why management has hired professional negotiators. Shareholder benefit from lower interest and higher conversion price. If management believes it is possible to refinance the current debt then they could use bankruptcy to hold off Oaktree while negotiating ordinary secured debt with a new lender. Part of EGLE's negotiating strategy will certainly be to threaten the potential of seeking bankruptcy protection, something that would actually protect the equity ownership of current shareholders. Many on this board have this all backwards.
I give the current situation a 30% chance of resulting in continuation of the current debt structure with modified terms, and a 70% chance of the lenders walking away with interest bearing convertible preferred.
You "pumpers" are too funny!
Your wife engulfed my candle, I applied a bullish thrusting pattern, and then left her with a big gap.
No, the SEC is not reading this message board. Your information is just as false as his.
It's only possible to seek bankruptcy protection when there's a principle or interest payment due that the company either does not want to pay or cannot pay. There is no such payment due next week and thus bankruptcy next week is not possible.