Don't like Kirby. He was terrible at ccall, tanked stock and sector when pps was oversold due to zika etc Parker needs to say something more substantial at opening comments before Kerr and Kirby talk doom and gloom. With market up 400 due to Japan wasting they messed up big time
Will be interested to see their take on report. Based on their thesis they should be thrilled with the report unless the LI charge bothers them. So far their thesis not working out very well.
The LI charges were a shocker which seems to be managements specialty...everyone was concerned about more LTC charges not LI. So just like LTC one question will be are there going to be more LI charges and still not clear if will be more LTC charges...IF there could be confidence that charges are over with other than minor ones than there would be a reason to have some optimism long term but I doubt management will/can clearly state that all material charges are behind them.
A lot of additional questions need answered : was the material weakness remediated and if so at what cost? What will be the effect of separating LI division and suspending LI/Annuity sales as division comprises about 75% of stockholder equity? How much was debt reduced in 4q towards 1-2b goal and what is 2016 outlook ? What rate increases were granted in 4q and so far in 1q ? What are expected MI loss ratios especially in Australia and Canada.
Positives were LTC margin increased from 2.3b to 2.5-3b which is significant and of curse no LTC charges. LTC loss ratio down to 73% from 76% in 3q and cash and liquid assets increased..operating earnings appear to be 20c EX special charges but as others have mentioned it was not stated as such in report.
Hopefully these questions will be addressed at ccall...
//It is fair statement that AAL is still struggling between 3 Devils and 3 Luckies with no Help from Parker's buyback machine? Just to make sure I didn't say anything wrong her// Hard to see pps moving up much near term, maybe some happy fed talk would turn market around...just missed selling calls near yesterdays high...I still stand by my negative take on the ccall...still a bit nauseous but recovering a little ! AAL was saved by 400 pt dow on Friday and Helane yesterday, no help today and imo aal will visit 35$ if market drops back to its recent lows and Uncle can sell more puts.
Will be surprised if meet estimates based on big 3q miss but would be great if they are at least near estimates which imo are too high based on 3q and equity/credit markets, management has already stated 2016 aussy and Canada loss ratios will increase question is how much. USMI bit of wildcard but likely pricing pressures ala rdn/mtg. LI in gutter...a lot of this priced in imo so comes down to size of any additional charges, cost to remediate material weakness and amount of debt pay down and 2016 estimatedpay downs to hit 1-2b paid off..if the later three not positive outcomes it will be ugly ugly ugly. Report is Thursday amc and ccall Friday morning. The report should state all the relevant data...
Fuel about 1.70 this time last year... if oil rises significantly they better be able to raise fares right now. Best thing Aal has going for it now is its about at 52 week low so if market decent a lot of bad priced in. Oops maybe not zika hysteria..low target annals pts 2h last year were in 40s and yes they were correct now in 50s hope correct again. Haven't heard from good ol Helene she was most accurate with 45 pt
2014 4q profit 1.1b vs 1.3 2015. 2015 profit 1.1b with 12.4%margin vs 12-14% estimate this year with revenues lower .So know see what Jamie Baker talking about? Fuel savings going bye bye with revenue pressures and increased costs and increased debt . Maybe why the "tone" of call crummy...
Uncle does rule. King Uncle...agree per low fuel estimates. Imo still a decent chance will be a 5% output cut. Only reason won't do is no one trusts the other to actually cut 5%. If do will see 40$ oil in week or two which would more than offset the output loss. Also Saudis want to hurt our shale which is at breaking point
Disagree bears. I was actually a bit nauseous after Kerr and Kirby were done and sure had negative effect on annals you could tell they were a bit stunned by the tone. Parker needs to give a better opening statement it's the same blather about record profits and great employees every call. He's much better in the q and a but damage done by than. Worst call I have heard from Aal / lcc and dragged whole sector down at open. Suggest listen to it if haven't
Basically all businesses are doing poorly and will do worst in 2016 but a lot priced into stock. If no big charges coming and are able to continue to pay down debt than at least pps should not drop further and could rise
// I "saw" (In only read cc, not listening// ,this was a case where being lazy and not listening to ccall was better..just focusing on the beat and the 8ks was better this time. The market had the same negative read on the call as I did but the actual data(read) was in line if not better than in line especially the 1q margin and prasm troughing in 1q like dal also stated. Almost like Kerr and Kirby don't want the dam pps to go up...that's how bad their tone was imo...
//Depends how you think of it; Revenue coming from Brazil is only 2%, VZ down to 0.5% of their Total revenue is the situation that can't get much Worse,// that's the point I was making, its really a positive going forward per cant lose much more revenue from such a low base...listening to call it sounded much worst than the transcript due to Derek and Scotts tone and lack of any emphasis or color on the positives,,,was all doom and gloom and the analysts questions reflected that tone in their questions. Parker had to try to change the tone but damage was done. PPS dropped when Scott started yapping about shty prasm, SA etc If not for dow up 400 imo pps would have been down 1-2$ for day imo,,,will see if follow thru pps strength on Monday and if trades up/down with oil/market..would think bias now to upside ex Zika hysteria in aedia
IMO Kirby and Scott gave a decidedly downbeat tone to the call and 2016 outlook even though the data says otherwise. For example, the 1q margin guide of 12-14% is excellent and Brazil and Venny are now only 2.5% of revenues vs 8.5% , also prasm troughing in 1q. They stated these positive data points but put no positive emphasis on them at all, you'd never know they were good data by their tone in fact the 2.5% came across as being a negative .At least Parker is always positive about the outlook and profits. Very poor job by Kirby and Scott, if dow was not up 400 would have been down vs up and maybe a lot.
I have been pointing out the same lack of talk per merger synergy savings, hardly a word since the merger...just shows amr was a shtty airline and aal has to clean up the mess.