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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

cavalier2015 634 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Nov 5, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Boring ...

    by unclespeaking 13 hours ago
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 3 hours ago Flag

    Stocks are very oversold assuming no recession or banking crisis..covered most of sold 2-19 calls at open but will look are selling again if pps nears 40$

  • cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 11, 2016 6:39 PM Flag

    Insider buys are reported couple days after the purchases, if they bought it would have been reported by now. After the 2q report the first buys were a couple days later, he majority were a week to three weeks later. At these price levels there is no reason to wait it they wanted to buy....

  • Reply to

    EPS $11?? AAMRQ?

    by mookmelodrama Feb 10, 2016 9:21 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 11, 2016 1:09 PM Flag

    If you consume a lot of garbage Bears you end up thinking like garbage from my experience. Like eating too much junk food.. End up with the #$%$ !

  • Reply to

    EPS $11?? AAMRQ?

    by mookmelodrama Feb 10, 2016 9:21 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 11, 2016 1:07 PM Flag

    1q..

  • Reply to

    EPS $11?? AAMRQ?

    by mookmelodrama Feb 10, 2016 9:21 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 11, 2016 1:06 PM Flag

    Airlines are holding up very well today. Main risk clearly the fear of US recession or near recession along with International actually getting worst ... And of course need to see that prasm actually does " trough" in 2q sector feels like looking for any excuse/ reason to rise

  • Reply to

    Perspective People

    by maximusmotz Feb 11, 2016 9:31 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 11, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    LTC/LI is 80% of SE , MI is 20%...that's the problem/difference plus LTC being hurt by super low rates MI benefited Management not buying shares now says it all imo. If do not see at least 500k shares in insider buys soon than can expect more negative surprises like past quarters.

  • Reply to

    EPS $11?? AAMRQ?

    by mookmelodrama Feb 10, 2016 9:21 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 11, 2016 8:12 AM Flag

    3x earnings ? So that would mean trailing eps was over 12$ share and forward 12$ share. 2015 eps was 9.10 and that was before taxes, 2016 is estimated at 6.50 after tax...get a clue dude, really tired of all the stupid eps/pe claims. Guess just have to keep hitting the ignore button until Uncle only one left

  • cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 10, 2016 9:25 PM Flag

    I noted the lack of any additional insider buys way back in September and October If there are no significant buys reported by next week than gnw's future is indeed quite dire imo. The CEOs truly does seem clueless, he makes statements of future divestiture such as LI/Annuities and doesn't do it, than indicates that looking to sell Aussy and doesn't do it.. Yes there were reasons why but he should have known those reasons beforehand. It's one negative surprise after another, what's the next shoe to drop? Didn't say a word at call about goal of reducing debt 1-2b, he will likely have a BS reason why not possible based on his track record GNWj desperately needs some GOOD news from this ceo...

  • Reply to

    Scott Kirby is the Smartest AAL guy?

    by unclespeaking Feb 6, 2016 4:19 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 7, 2016 12:57 PM Flag

    Japan Easing

  • Reply to

    Scott Kirby is the Smartest AAL guy?

    by unclespeaking Feb 6, 2016 4:19 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 7, 2016 12:55 PM Flag

    Don't like Kirby. He was terrible at ccall, tanked stock and sector when pps was oversold due to zika etc Parker needs to say something more substantial at opening comments before Kerr and Kirby talk doom and gloom. With market up 400 due to Japan wasting they messed up big time

  • Reply to

    Freaking Moody's just downgraded us!

    by apdamic Feb 5, 2016 3:14 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 6, 2016 3:50 PM Flag

    Sure did that fast. Downgrades obviously not good...

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Feb 6, 2016 7:27 AM Flag

    Anals never ask like " do you expect further LI charges or are these a one off?" Do you expect further ltc charges? Amazing...

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Feb 4, 2016 9:59 PM Flag

    Will be interested to see their take on report. Based on their thesis they should be thrilled with the report unless the LI charge bothers them. So far their thesis not working out very well.

  • cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 4, 2016 9:24 PM Flag

    The LI charges were a shocker which seems to be managements specialty...everyone was concerned about more LTC charges not LI. So just like LTC one question will be are there going to be more LI charges and still not clear if will be more LTC charges...IF there could be confidence that charges are over with other than minor ones than there would be a reason to have some optimism long term but I doubt management will/can clearly state that all material charges are behind them.

    A lot of additional questions need answered : was the material weakness remediated and if so at what cost? What will be the effect of separating LI division and suspending LI/Annuity sales as division comprises about 75% of stockholder equity? How much was debt reduced in 4q towards 1-2b goal and what is 2016 outlook ? What rate increases were granted in 4q and so far in 1q ? What are expected MI loss ratios especially in Australia and Canada.

    Positives were LTC margin increased from 2.3b to 2.5-3b which is significant and of curse no LTC charges. LTC loss ratio down to 73% from 76% in 3q and cash and liquid assets increased..operating earnings appear to be 20c EX special charges but as others have mentioned it was not stated as such in report.

    Hopefully these questions will be addressed at ccall...

  • Reply to

    To be conservative

    by unclespeaking Feb 4, 2016 10:51 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 4, 2016 12:57 PM Flag

    //Somebody woke up Parker late this morning?// appears to be the case...whats next Tuesday?

  • Reply to

    AAL

    by mcavallero62 Feb 1, 2016 3:26 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 2, 2016 11:05 AM Flag

    //It is fair statement that AAL is still struggling between 3 Devils and 3 Luckies with no Help from Parker's buyback machine? Just to make sure I didn't say anything wrong her// Hard to see pps moving up much near term, maybe some happy fed talk would turn market around...just missed selling calls near yesterdays high...I still stand by my negative take on the ccall...still a bit nauseous but recovering a little ! AAL was saved by 400 pt dow on Friday and Helane yesterday, no help today and imo aal will visit 35$ if market drops back to its recent lows and Uncle can sell more puts.

  • Reply to

    AAL

    by mcavallero62 Feb 1, 2016 3:26 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 2, 2016 6:48 AM Flag

    How does King Uncle know that Wednesday is when Pacman can start eating shares?

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Jan 31, 2016 7:16 PM Flag

    Will be surprised if meet estimates based on big 3q miss but would be great if they are at least near estimates which imo are too high based on 3q and equity/credit markets, management has already stated 2016 aussy and Canada loss ratios will increase question is how much. USMI bit of wildcard but likely pricing pressures ala rdn/mtg. LI in gutter...a lot of this priced in imo so comes down to size of any additional charges, cost to remediate material weakness and amount of debt pay down and 2016 estimatedpay downs to hit 1-2b paid off..if the later three not positive outcomes it will be ugly ugly ugly. Report is Thursday amc and ccall Friday morning. The report should state all the relevant data...

  • Reply to

    Profit/Margins

    by cavalier2015 Jan 30, 2016 5:31 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jan 30, 2016 8:51 PM Flag

    Read Yulies analyst, very good...that's a lot of partying

  • Reply to

    Profit/Margins

    by cavalier2015 Jan 30, 2016 5:31 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jan 30, 2016 7:09 PM Flag

    Fuel about 1.70 this time last year... if oil rises significantly they better be able to raise fares right now. Best thing Aal has going for it now is its about at 52 week low so if market decent a lot of bad priced in. Oops maybe not zika hysteria..low target annals pts 2h last year were in 40s and yes they were correct now in 50s hope correct again. Haven't heard from good ol Helene she was most accurate with 45 pt