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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

cavalier2015 177 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Nov 5, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Delta's August Report

    by cavalier2015 Aug 29, 2015 8:23 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 8 hours ago Flag

    Another inside sale of 25k on 8-28. No other airlines with recent sales to my knowledge

  • Reply to

    About August PRASM

    by unclespeaking Aug 30, 2015 3:17 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 30, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    Unfortunately, I doubt dal/ airlines will mention this when they report but we shall see...

  • Reply to

    Delta's August Report

    by cavalier2015 Aug 29, 2015 8:23 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 29, 2015 9:43 PM Flag

    Delta's CEO...

  • Reply to

    Delta's August Report

    by cavalier2015 Aug 29, 2015 8:23 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 29, 2015 8:46 PM Flag

    Hope your correct, never a great time for a CEO to sell shares but rather see near highs, when pps strong and buying during selloffs like past two weeks.

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Aug 29, 2015 8:23 PM Flag

    Not very encouraging that the CEO sold 75k shares a few days ago...

  • Reply to

    Ual up 7 percent, AAL down

    by dca1186 Aug 28, 2015 1:23 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 28, 2015 9:53 PM Flag

    If not for much lower fuel costs in 2015 aal's eps would be down significantly...fuel savings this year will equate to about 7$ share of the 9$ estimate.

  • Reply to

    Ual up 7 percent, AAL down

    by dca1186 Aug 28, 2015 1:23 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 28, 2015 9:02 PM Flag

    //Just so you know, all the analysts worth anything and certainly the real buysiders all look at the business ex fuel... and then smile at the fuel piece...//

    Agree and basically why aal has dropped since 4q conference call weak prasm comments in addition to increased costs.. lower fuel is great for fcf but bad for pricing and not much else positive to speak of for over a year. Hopefully going into 2016 we will start seeing/hearing about some merger synergy benefits and marginal prasm improvement..

  • Reply to

    Memories....

    by cavalier2015 Aug 27, 2015 8:12 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 27, 2015 10:46 PM Flag

    When aal was added it was speculated that ual would be added in sept/oct. ...they were right on target

  • Reply to

    1.26

    by cavalier2015 Aug 27, 2015 8:53 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 27, 2015 10:44 PM Flag

    Believe current margin estimate is 16-18%, imo any increase would not exceed 17-19% which would still be a big plus for stock...

  • Reply to

    SA Article on NCT

    by casadipace77723 Aug 12, 2015 12:26 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 27, 2015 10:34 PM Flag

    Hi Dean, I held nct back in 2010/2011, got shaken out BO2012 at around 5$ share I remember you on the board. I had several hundred thousand shares and held just a few and have noticed there were two spinoffs with a 1 for 1 ratio. Am I correct that including the spinoffs the effective price for nct would have been as high as 40$ share with a current yield of about 15%? If true and I held my shares would be worth about 15-20m and be getting 15% in divies....OUCH!

    Got shaken out due to all the experts saying Euro crisis was unfixable and an nct analyst dissed their move into mortgage servicing. Also was mad that nct IR would not respond to my inquiries..Ended up Draghi and other new Euro leaders came to Euro's rescue and nct managements moves all ended up being great. thanks

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Aug 27, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    8-24 jet fuel If aal doe not raise 3q margin guidance with august repot than it means revenue weakness/other cost increases offsetting fuel savings..

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Aug 27, 2015 8:12 PM Flag

    UAL being added to SP next Wednesday...we never did get that Friday after market pop that most were expecting when AAL was added to SP in March and has been pretty much all downhill since..had to be prearranged buy/sell orders because pps was pegged at around 55$ with huge after hours volume. Following Monday believe opened down and closed around 53$...

  • cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 26, 2015 6:54 PM Flag

    Agree per margin calls ( I came close early Monday) and program trading etc..a lot of people have been overextended and needed to raise money. IMO is also a reason that pps is not going up much on a day that Dow up 600 points. Under normal conditions aal would likely have been up 3$ today.

    If market settles down we may see pps rise, august numbers need to be decent like July's. Have not really had a positive catalyst for months. I know fuel is way down but the market does not and will not see that as a positive unless it is clear that it is going to result in aal increasing margin guidance
    from current 16-18%.

  • Reply to

    50,000 share purchase by a director today

    by arman12321232 Aug 26, 2015 5:09 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 26, 2015 5:45 PM Flag

    Now we are starting to see some significant buying but where is the CFO's buys other than a measly 25k shares. He not only would know gnw's financials better than anyone , he also has the highest comp of all officers at 2.6m. Maybe he has a very very high maintenance wife and has no dry powder..or he knows where the dead bodies(ltc?) are hidden?

  • Reply to

    34.10

    by cavalier2015 Aug 24, 2015 9:41 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 24, 2015 10:23 PM Flag

    //Don't worry, be happy// I'll try, selling some shares doesn't bother me too much since I have plenty but covering the Jan puts I had sold for a big loss when they were in the black a week ago really sucked. Needed to be busy etc and miss the first 30 minutes of trading...living on west coast and getting up little late would have been the ticket.

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Aug 24, 2015 9:41 PM Flag

    Yup, todays low and I had no dry powder to buy and actually sold some shares and covered some puts near low to avoid possible margin call. Easy to say to keep some dry powder for selloffs but much harder to actually do especially when have a stock like aal that was already down a lot. If aal sees 34.10 again which imo is unlikely, the market will be in big trouble. Futures up 300...

  • cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 24, 2015 7:20 PM Flag

    True, good to see but when consider the top five officers pay averages 2m year its not a large amount of money and some of them have yet to buy. If it was a no brainer they would be loading up...that said imo cost/benefit at 4.50 is pretty compelling as any marginally good news could see stock gain 20-30% in one day assuming market/gnw are near low.

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Aug 22, 2015 8:52 PM Flag

    Well, aal has been underperforming for months and now we have the long anticipated correction which of course would be a lot less painful if pps was higher to start. Will aal ever get a fuel cost boost from the market? Very much needed at this time but based on thursday and fridays action looks like aal will continue to selloff if market correction continues. Who would have thunk pps would be down with oil down 20$ barrel, crazy .

    Market clearly focused on prasm, peak margins, capacity and pricing not on eps, fuel, buybacks. We will be sitting around a 2015 PE of 4 if pps drops a couple more dollars !

  • cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 22, 2015 12:18 PM Flag

    Nice to see them finally buying but low share/dollar amounts not showing a lot of conviction. 100-200k share buys would show more confidence. After all, these guys aren't making chump change...still a positive and would not be surprised if more buys yesterday.

  • Reply to

    Worm Turning?

    by cavalier2015 Aug 16, 2015 8:32 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Aug 21, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    Well, unfortunately are having a very weak market, wish I did have to rollover/close my 45$ calls...