Putins opponents seem to end up dead..he is a major problem and will likely continue to be one. He's playing the nationalist, evil west card with a massive amount of disinformation to stay in power
Bears, good points and I agree but the contracts do have short term additional costs. The single operating cert is coming up shortly and I agree could provide a catalyst, reservation system is down the road I believe. Aal should hopefully start to get credit for a so far pretty flawless integration process though the tough parts are still to come. I still feel oil is going to sell off sharply assuming the Middle East issues do not continue to prop up Brent...
We may get some clarity on Tuesday when aal presents at Jpm's conference. Unfortunately right now imo aal has one huge positive in low fuel costs but everything else is nothing to write home about...the FA and pilots agreements imo were positive s but they did add extra costs and ahead of schedule. We need a non fuel catalyst to get the big dog barking again or of course a drop in fuel costs back to 1.60 range
I asked myself same thing. My guess is they are mostly at small airports with slots available but believe frontier added to Atlanta also
Frontier and allegiant adding a lot of new routes. Tuesday's Jpm's transportation conference on Tuesday will be important see what aal has to say
I believe aal will eventually trade at a 12-13 after tax PE but not anytime soon. CS I believe estimates after tax 2015/2016 eps of only 6-7$ which is a lot less than many are estimating. Airlines and especially aal will not get the benefit of any doubts , will continue to be risk(s) adjusted imo. Just do not see substantial pps gains until prasm/other issues resolve.
wgrsh, yes I am...the market is clearly looking at the big fuel savings as a special event/ item to a significant extend otherwise we would be at much higher pps. If we did not have the prasm, other issues the fuel savings would not be discounted as much imo.
Seems pretty clear to me that is 55$. Remember, after tax 2015 eps is estimated to be around 6-7$ share, put an 8 PE on that and only at 48-56$. Yeah, PE of 8 is low but its around where LCC/AAL have been trading for past few years.
As was obvious during the 4q ccall aal clearly has a revenue/prasm problem short term and possibly thru 2015 that other airlines do not have. Oil will have to drop big time imo for pps to see 55$ anytime soon.
Agree that its all about Saudi's, they are the Big Doggy and they are going to keep barking until US shale capacity drops a lot more and/or non OPEC countries like Russia agree to production cuts..
My take on OG companies comments over the past couple months is that the bulk of the rig cutbacks have already been made...or at minimum have been announced awhile back.
AAL is lowering fares on some routes to match low cost carriers to maintain market share similar to what US Air would have done...acting like a discount airline. Short term pain for long term gain.
wgrsh, the LCC's (low cost carriers) are clearly being a big pest, CS mentions this and that aal has had to match their fares ala US Airways. A lot of issues started last June/July when pps topped out at around 45$. Unfortunate, along with the big setback due to Ebola aal/airlines have been treading water to a large extend for past 9 months. Just have to work thru it, good that aal has a strong management team to take on these issues and merger challenges. CS did say aal stated that fares are holding up well which is a big plus.
wgrsh, I just read the full Credit Suisse report based on their meeting with management. It is very detailed and the gist of it is that 1q/2q revenues will be pressured and that 2H will see improvements with 2016 being the year that aal should see benefits of merger kick in and revenues firm up. A number of caveats but cant say that I disagree. I am hoping we get a drop in oil prices resulting in pps rising to 52$ plus so I can sell some May calls.