Pretty much where I'm at...do feel very good chance will have a solid 3q beat...but that will not be till BONovember
Good points, a lot of contradictory articles last couple days at HSNews...bottom line is bdi needs to keep climbing this time of year...todays strong capes number a good start.
While that article was very bullish on China ore imports, two subsequent articles in HSNews are very bearish...quite a contradiction. Guess the bdi will determine which is correct...
There is a possibility that other nations will pick up the China slack and also that China will finally implement aggressive stimulus measures to boost economy, free up credit...sooner the better. .I hold a bunch of January calls that are underwater and like you am looking to exit on any pps strength...keeping an open mind as things can change rapidly.
Article in HSNews is very negative...worst bit of news I have read recently as imo China's lack of growth/ore,coal imports biggest risk to drys/bdi. I have been very bullish going into September but now have some real doubts if we will get the spike in rates I and others have been expecting. The bdi should be surging this week if going to match 2013...also lame option premiums betting that rates not going to spike like in 2013. The horror, the horror...anyone who reads the article that has a more positive take I am all ears..
Obvious need much larger increase in rates and/or company specific news per balance of convert bonds, orig mlp, tanker spinoff etc to get pps moving up...
"' The FFA numbers suggest a marked rise in rates will soon occur. We will see.'" this coming week should be interesting...imo better than 50/50 odds bdi starts climb to 1500+
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Dry Bulk Weekly Report #36
The broader index (BDI) was held flat in spite of the fact that three of the four components were firmer. The Cape loss offset the gains made by the others and the BDI has a week over week gain of 0.70%… flat.
BDI = 1155 (+8 pts)
BCI = 2483 (-144 pts)
BPI = 931 (+60 pts)
BSI = 997 (+27 pts)
BHSI = 469 (+27 pts)
The equities in our bulker coverage split with 10 gainers and 14 losers. The best performers were ESEA @ 1.19 (+4.39%), SBLK @ 14.68 (+4.26%) and SHIP @ 1.53 (+4.08%). From the loser board we show the worst hit names included some perennial favorites NM @ 9.11 (-3.70%), SB @ 8.27 (-5.70%) and lastly FREE @ 0.44 (-24.14%).
The FFA numbers suggest a marked rise in rates will soon occur. We will see.
wgrsh, you are correct..I totally agree and has been obvious to me for past couple years that ual had a lot of "catch up" potential due to very low cap ...I bought shares at 20$ but unfortunately sold them on I believe 3q company poor news release/ outlook last year.about this time.
UAL has grossly underperformed over the last few years therefore its market cap is very low vs dal/aal even though similar revenues/assets, with recent signs of improving performance ual has a lot of "catch up" potential...always factor in market cap in your evaluations...not doing so was a mistake I have made in past...see aapl when was at 700$ share couple years ago..by all metrics was undervalued but had a 700B! cap and sure enough sold down to 325$ when performance hit a soft period. Another example was when LCC was trading at a cap of around I believe 1.3B a few years ago..
And they specifically mentioned the poor comparisons due to Ven during the 3q ccall...just something the market/myself dd not expect...and of course other factors such as plane crashes, ebola et al have not made for a rosy scenario the past month or so. also acknowledged yesterday that will be losing flights at Love due to changes in " Wright Amendment... " expect to make them up at Dulles but still a net negative imo..
Suggest listen to CFO webcast yesterday at Cowen conference...aal's august numbers out next week, I would be surprised if much better than Dal's. This should not be a surprise to anyone that has been paying attention...poor comparisons to 2013 per Venezuela and other slightly negative factors adversely affecting performance..pretty much same ones that hurt 2q numbers which were underwhelming imo and the markets.