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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

cavalier2015 184 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 54 minutes ago Member since: Nov 5, 2012
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  • Reply to

    When do we report traffic

    by scottmmoore826 Jul 9, 2015 2:00 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 9, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    Look if 2q margin still at reduced 16-18 and prasm minus 6-8.. unlikely will give any 3q guidance..

  • Reply to

    When do we report traffic

    by scottmmoore826 Jul 9, 2015 2:00 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 9, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    Should be tomorrow but thought ual would be today...

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Jul 9, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    Believe reports June numbers today, aal tomorrow

  • cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 9, 2015 8:44 AM Flag

    That is also Helane Becker's view at Cowen which I agree with longer term but short term a rise back to 60$ will likely be bad for stocks, while a drop to 50$ assuming its not associated with China/Greece/Market turmoil will be good for airline stocks.

  • Reply to

    Oil/Margin

    by cavalier2015 Jul 7, 2015 2:09 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 9, 2015 8:40 AM Flag

    Its all about the base, about the base(prasm/revenue, no treble(pretty much everything else). Any hint of improved prasm/revenue trends in 3q and going into 4q will be the positive catalyst. Barring any additional weakening of prasm or a general market decline imo aal will continue to trade between 39-43$. IMO there will be an Iran deal and it is likely already partially accounted for in the recent drop in oil. With a deal oil could drop back to 50$, lower if they are permitted to sell the oil they have stored in tankers sooner vs. later.

  • Reply to

    Oil/Margin

    by cavalier2015 Jul 7, 2015 2:09 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 9, 2015 7:00 AM Flag

    Scott, needless to say I did not expect aal to sniff 38-39$ share this year and yes at 51$ wti would have expected pps to be at least 50$. 7-6 jet fuel now at 1.58 down from 1.68 on 6-29. If stays around 1.60 aal should guide for strong 3q margins which along with expected imo 20c divvy increase at 2q ccall may get this worm turned in the right direction. I noted at 4q ccall that was all about prasm and boy was I unfortunately correct..we had the SP gift and a brief 1q report pop but really still all about prasm/revenue pressures.

    Lets hope that as some at aal have stated that 3q comparisons will indeed start to improve though I'll believe it when I hear it due to greater fare pressures in Dallas and other markets.

  • Reply to

    $2.62 EPS and $10.89B revenue

    by unclespeaking Jul 7, 2015 3:32 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 7, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    Beat is likely imo and may easily
    beat if estimate stays at 2.62..

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Jul 7, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    3Q profit margin should be greater than expected if wti oil stays below 55-56$..

  • Reply to

    Truly incredable

    by scottmmoore826 Jul 6, 2015 4:48 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 6, 2015 11:12 PM Flag

    Iran not a done deal..if gets done it will be a big deal.

  • cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 6, 2015 11:10 PM Flag

    Baer is a psychopath imo..dealt with and observed his type, just want to be the big man, throw their unearned power around. Total disregard for how affects his targets. Often say they are "protecting" the public.

  • Reply to

    AAL Response

    by cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2015 7:23 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2015 8:34 PM Flag

    UPDATE, 2:45 p.m.: American Airlines, the world’s largest airline after its December 2013 merger with US Airways, confirmed that the U.S. Department of Justice has contacted it seeking information about capacity.

    Related
    Airline stocks continue to slide on concerns over revenue, capacity
    Southwest Airlines to curb capacity growth in second half and in 2016
    American Airlines to defer delivery of Airbus A320neo aircraft

    “American Airlines has received a Civil Investigative Demand from the Department of Justice Antitrust Division. The CID seeks documents and information from the last two years that are related to statements and decisions about airline capacity.

    “We welcome the review as the data shows that the industry remains highly competitive with more people flying than ever before. Demand has been enabled by a robust and competitive marketplace in which capacity has been added and average fares have decreased.

    “We will cooperate fully with the investigation and demonstrate that the last two years have presented an entirely new competitive landscape that has greatly benefited air travel consumers.”//

    Read the full article in Dallas Morning News which includes the DOJ's info demands...clear Baer doesn't have a clue and just wants a weak, unprofitable airline industry flying decrepit planes...this guy is borderline psychopath imo..

  • Reply to

    Thank you Hunter

    by scottmmoore826 Jul 1, 2015 2:42 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2015 7:31 PM Flag

    FYI--can still be collusion even if fares have dropped and capacity increased. It's more about the "behavior" and how they "talk" big time BS.

  • Reply to

    Thank you Hunter

    by scottmmoore826 Jul 1, 2015 2:42 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2015 7:29 PM Flag

    scott...agree

  • Reply to

    NT Times

    by grandforks65 Jul 1, 2015 7:21 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2015 7:25 PM Flag

    BS case from DOJ's Baer..trying to get payback for his failure to stop merger...and appease his fellow socialists like dingdong Senator Blumenthal..

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2015 7:23 PM Flag

    In Financial Times article under Yahoo Finance headlines... DOJ's Baer just wants some payback for not being able to stop the merger imo..will try to squeeze big 4 for whatever he can get. Unlikely to see the light of day in a courtroom imo unless airlines refuse to concede anything which may end up being the case since its a BS charge..

  • Reply to

    Collusion....LMFAO

    by clrodrick Jul 1, 2015 3:08 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2015 5:49 PM Flag

    Couldn't agree more, Baer at DOJ tried to scuttle the amr/lcc merger and failed, he will fail with this BS also. If makes it to a reasonable{not socialist) judge's courtroom it will be dismissed before trial imo...

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Jul 1, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    Well well look who slithered out of his socialist , airline loathing crack at the DOJ. Just like his attempt to stop the amr/cc merger in 2013 he will likely cause investors and the industry a lot of pain but as before he will fail. We have a hyper competitive airline industry that is finally back on its feet and he sees collusion. Sure hope he doesn't have any say in the gulf airline dispute, you know he'll side with the gulf airlines.

  • Reply to

    Value is about $90

    by rockowayman Jun 22, 2015 2:46 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jun 23, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    rockawayman, you really should spend a little more time with your DD. Go to " Analysts Estimates" for more accurate estimates. The summary estimates are notoriously incorrect.

  • cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jun 22, 2015 6:51 PM Flag

    Believe Kirby sold at 55$ eoweek that aal added tp S&P. Clearly was great timing. When pps did not rise on huge volume after hours the Friday added to S&P it was time to get out of Dodge. PPS dropped following Monday and other than the 1q report bounce briefly to 53$ has been all downhill. IMO the worm has turned but hard to see 50$ before 2q report unless oil tanks. June numbers likely to be poor, will be key if give 3q guidance.. imo 3q guidance will also be weak but market may anticipate turnaround into 4q with capacity cuts which will be announced at 2q reports if not sooner.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Value is about $90

    by rockowayman Jun 22, 2015 2:46 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Jun 22, 2015 6:44 PM Flag

    Get your numbers straight, dal has no where near a 30 pe, closer to 8 on 2016 eps, 9.5 on 2015...if prasm turns positive eoy or bo2016 I can see aal having a pe of 10-12 in 2016 on 6$ after tax which would put pps around 60-72.