Agree, like many I was expecting bdi to climb in September like last year..offshore weakness just a big negative per drys investment thesis primarily a play on orig..double whammy negatives and with the market a bit shaky overall just have to hope for a couple positive developments.
Agree, I made some money on doral a couple years ago so was very familiar with company and should have pulled the trigger when pps at 2-3$ in May..much riskier bet at these levels.
No, It’s Still Not Time to Buy Offshore Drillers
By Ben Levisohn
Despite the recent pain for offshore drilliers like Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO), Noble (NE), Transocean (RIG) and Vantage Drilling (VTG), RBC Capital Markets’ Robert Pinkard and team don’t think it’s time to buy their stocks. They explain why:
Given the number of uncontracted newbuild deliveries, rigs rolling off contracts, and operator sublets, 2015 is shaping up to be an even more challenging market than 2014 for floating rigs. We expect the market to be characterized by intense competition, falling dayrates, and rig retirements. This should lead to steady declines in earnings on average for the group through ’16…
Under current market conditions, it would be premature to say that all dividends are 100% guaranteed. However, each company’s outlook is different. We think dividends for Transocean and Diamond Offshore are at the most risk of being cut given the cash flow and leverage outlooks for the companies headed into 2015/2016…
Nearly every company will still need to take on debt in 2015 to fund capex/dividends. Offshore drilling leverage has historically not exceeded the 35-40% level for very long. In our base case, all the companies are able to pay dividends and fund capex without stretching net debt/cap above the 35% threshold. We forecast that Noble is the only company that will not need to raise $ next year to meet financial commitments. Transocean is the only company with an MLP that we estimate could be used for ~$500mn-1bn in cash raises annually going forward. Asset sales are a possible source of funding for all companies, but we view Transocean as the most likely candidate to divest a meaningful number of rigs in 2015.
Overcapacity in shippers and drillers killin us....hope orig will be able to contract the new rigs coming next year and at decent rates. .
Doral Financial Corporation: Two Days of Trial and Hacienda Has Put Forth No Evidence
Company Release - 09/19/2014 19:53
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico, Sept. 19, 2014 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Following today's trial in the Doral Financial Corporation v. Hacienda court case, Doral Legal Counsel Matthew D. McGill issued the following statement:
"For four months, Doral has been waiting for Hacienda to explain its attempt to nullify its $230 million debt to Doral. Hacienda claimed that Doral obtained its 2012 tax agreement through a fraud, but after two days of trial, including testimony from Secretary Melba Acosta Febo herself, Hacienda has come forward with no evidence supporting that outrageous accusation. When this case is over, the people of Puerto Rico will have to ask whether they were well served by their government's unfounded attack on one of Puerto Rico's few remaining banks."
Superior Court Judge Laureana Perez Perez began hearing testimony yesterday in the bank’s lawsuit against the Puerto Rico Department of Treasury after settlement talks collapsed last month. Doral’s claim relates to a restatement of earnings from 1998 to 2004. The lender is trying to recover some taxes paid on overstated financials.
The judge told lawyers gathered for the brief nonjury trial that whatever her decision, an appeal is likely.
Seems kinda odd she would make that statement...pretty much sayin her decision/ruling is kinda BS ?
Doral Financial Corporation and Government of Puerto Rico Meet for Trial to Settle Tax Refund Due to Doral
Chief Counsel Matthew D. McGill: Hacienda’s star witness is “irrelevant”
SAN JUAN— Following today’s trial in the Doral Financial Corporation v. Hacienda court case, Doral Legal Counsel Matthew D. McGill issued the following statement:
“To begin their case today, the government called as their star witness a former employee of Doral who the court has ruled has nothing relevant to say about the tax agreement that Hacienda is trying to repudiate. Hacienda’s presentation of an irrelevant witness confirms what Doral has been saying–that there is no evidence to support Hacienda’s attempted nullification of its agreement with Doral.”
American Air: Our Industry Is Great but for Congress and Virgin
BY Ted Reed Follow |
09/17/14 - 11:35 AM EDT |
This is start of good article by Ted Reed on The Street that sheds some light on a couple reasons aal pps has been dropping since 2q report. For pps to get back to highs and above aal imo will need to show substantial cost savings thru merger synergies/fuel savings and this assumes fares hold up which is not a certainty and that labor cost increases are manageable....yes the pe is very low but this is the airline industry which still gets limited respect and is overregulated and Congress/Publics whipping boy...
DALLAS (TheStreet) -- American Airlines' (AAL_) two top officers spoke out from opposite ends of the country on Tuesday, as both CEO Doug Parker and President Scott Kirby applauded the current state of the airline industry but said a few kinks still need to be worked out.
Parker, who spoke at an "aviation summit" in Washington, D.C. that was sponsored by industry lobbyist A4A, said, "Everything about our business feels dramatically different and greatly improved until I get to Washington -- Here, our industry doesn't seem to be appreciated.
"It often feels like we are viewed as a federally owned utility," Parker said, as he itemized the industry's gripes.
Chiefly, an array of federal taxes and fees, unique to airlines, accounts for 21% of the cost of the average $300 ticket. Three-and-a-half decades after deregulation, excessive regulation remains, led by steep fines for delays exceeding three hours. Progress has been maddeningly slow on air traffic control improvements that could vastly benefit the economy. All this is in stark contrast with the approach of Middle East countries that work with their national airlines to build traffic even though the countries lack something most airline passengers would seem to want: desirable destinations.
I have listened to most and since planning on holding long term and not adding more shares do not have to follow as closely/urgently like last year at this time. Compared to last couple years holding aal now is a walk in park. Agree per Parker et al and one of main reasons plan on holding long term. I don't go back as far as you with Parker and company but have followed and owned LCC for years...
I will buy in teens if in fact it drops that low...