Yes ,HCLP is crushing it and may continue to.... tanker IPO is a ways based on right market conditions, mlp closer to happening and orig divvy likely increased early 2015 imo. Just need rates to move consistently up and drys a quick double imo
DRYS 2Q beat, possible imo due to orig divy if consensus 5c loss ..orig 2q strongly beats again..bdi starts to rise and speculators jump on drys realizing one of few sectors/stocks that remain with potential to double in short order.
I would not be in drys if not for orig and no one else should be...
There are a plethora in the airline business...goes with the turf...unions, new startups news this week, recession, margins.....blah blah blah...
Unfortunately is the nature of the industry, a lot of bad things can happen that have nothing to do with the management of the company/industry. However, the fundamentals of the airline industry are the best in decades...most important factor going forward.
IMO assuming overall stock market stability and planes do not continue to be shot down/crash etc and fuel remains stable(I know a lot of assumptions) aal will indeed trade at a PE of between 9-11 which would put the pps on target for substantial appreciation going forward.
Actually a recent study concluded bullies live longer, go figure .Just what they need, more incentive.
Article in WSJ per several new airlines coming online due to big improvement in industry fundamentals...one of several reasons for weakness today imo.
That being said, imo will need a big increase in ore/coal shipments to China in order to match/exceed last year's spike up...appears to be too much shipping capacity at this time. IMO the increase will come but not sure will be as early as last year, may be more towards the EOY, hope sooner rather than later, in addition to having a bunch of shares also have jan. 3-4$ calls.
Started up in mid August last year but from higher levels..cant think of a major reason would not head up this year also, some more ships available but also more to be shipped. 2q reports and Ccalls will be coming out in couple weeks which should give a clearer outlook.
Looking forward to what CFO ccall comments are per positive impact of divvy ...imo may result in eps beat for 2Q.
My understanding is excluding orig debt drys has total of around 1.5B in loans, at average interest rate of 6% you are at 90M year in interest which imo orig divvy will cover next year.
Equivalent to paying 6% on 1B loan...makes loan payments much easier imo and creditors likely are aware of this as loans refinanced.
Good Motley article saying ORIG better buy. Of course they do not mention the obvious reasons Transocean and Seadrill trade at higher PE's which is that they have much higher yields and also do not have some of their shares being used as collateral(drys)..
If BDI spikes up like last year September thru EOY, 6$...7$ if orig eps keeps beating estimates and drys starts to match/beat estimates.