If oil down this week going into Friday and Dal report solid on Wednesday, aal should be up in which case I will cover my sold puts and sell more calls...Dal October report was great but reaction muted because 4q guide was unchanged..
GNW pps largely predicated on Aussy/Canada subs, may get a pop on Friday if jobs report is strong which will in effect assure a Fed rate increase...
I may sell 5$ 1-15 calls if we get a pps pop on Fed rate increase on 12-16 can always rollover calls if pps rises. If pps 5.50 1-15 5$ calls should be around .75-1.00 which is a lot of downside protection
Good SA article " I was wrong: post mortem on genworth financial" he mentions the old block matter and is not quite as confident as you per no more reserves, problem is older blocks reserves/margin are calculated separate from newer blocks or would not have had prior reserve charge... point is there is no margin cushion so cant say will not be any charges on old block.
Agree, gnw on a mini roll into likely Fed increase on 12-16..if do get a Fed pps pop than decision is whether to sell/hedge or will pps stay strong. Also likely will be getting some asset sale news before year end which could be a catalyst. Disappointing that no additional insider buys...
January 2015, amzn 300$ share and by fundamental valuations is way overvalued, aal is 55$ and is considered way undervalued. amzn now 675$, aal 41$...makes more sense than you may think. I remember not buying amzn at 150$ because imo it was way overvalued, looked at it again in January and reached same conclusion. Obviously my valuation analysis was not sound.
Aal's performance this year makes more sense than many think. At beginning of year expected 2016 eps was around 9-10$ share untaxed which equates to about 6.00-6.50 taxed.. aal and lcc average PE the past 10 years has been about 8x which gets you at pps of 48-52$..Throw in all the headwinds for aal this year and 8x has proved to be generous. Oh well, so it goes, lessons often times are not learned again and again especially per stock investing..
Good odds will be revisiting lows around 38-39 imo...what good is going on? Even oil popped up some. Intl is a mess especially LA..DAL report next week only thing besides oil tanking that could help and their great October report was a dud for airline stocks. OPEC 12-4 meeting could help if no change in policy, but look out if there is an agreement to reduce output...I know, everyone is so sure oil will stay low for longer..blah blah blah.
AAL is ridiculously undervalued and fuel is dirt cheap but it really has just has not mattered, aal has been a classic, and extremely profitable, value trap most of year.
Looking to buy CHK if nears 4$ could have huge short squeeze on any good news. Think 50/50 that will be OPEC deal on 12-4 and asset sales likely before YE
FWIW, which prefer ?....GNW with BV o 22$ with about 1$ eps and possible charges of a billion(2$ share) or CHK with BV of 2$, no eps and likely billions of additional write downs of assets. CHK has cap of 3.5B, GNW 2.5B. GNW looks rock solid vs a lot of O&G companies. Obviously not apples to apples but something to consider.
Uncle was 100% good advice when preached don't just own one airline..too bad cav didn't listen. Of course I would likely have bought Ual!
//I will point outo that dal lost billions on their fuel hedges in 2015. Yet doesn't seem to matter to anyone on the street. And now they are adopting the all strategy of no hedges. // which will make dal 2016 comps very good...I think aal's strong management will start to close the valuation gap with dal and luv now that reservations done and especially if see even marginal improvement in LA market I think LA may be hurting aal more than ULCCs...
Sold 43 calls last week when pps was around 44$, who would have thunk could have sold 42's...selling calls when pps as 46-47 few weeks ago would have been the killer trade especially if sold ITM strikes, unfortunately I had sold 45 1-15 puts when pps was 45$...crazy
//Bears has figured out, 60m shares of buyback can really have the "Shock and Awe" effect. That will really convince all the doubters, I tell ya!// Aint that the truth, shock and awe about all that will get this quacker moving, not clear that even 30$ oil will do the trick. Of course ual/dal/luv also munching up shares so why by aal vs others?