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Doral Financial Corp. Message Board

cavalier2015 241 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 59 minutes ago Member since: Nov 5, 2012
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  • cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 10, 2016 9:25 PM Flag

    I noted the lack of any additional insider buys way back in September and October If there are no significant buys reported by next week than gnw's future is indeed quite dire imo. The CEOs truly does seem clueless, he makes statements of future divestiture such as LI/Annuities and doesn't do it, than indicates that looking to sell Aussy and doesn't do it.. Yes there were reasons why but he should have known those reasons beforehand. It's one negative surprise after another, what's the next shoe to drop? Didn't say a word at call about goal of reducing debt 1-2b, he will likely have a BS reason why not possible based on his track record GNWj desperately needs some GOOD news from this ceo...

  • Reply to

    Annual Letter - CEO cites "Sense of Urgency"

    by joeschmo_4 Apr 1, 2016 10:37 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Apr 1, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    When te CEO and CFO stop saying "there is much more work to do" and start saying " we have turned the corner" I will have more confidence in the stock

  • Reply to

    RDN

    by cavalier2015 Apr 27, 2016 2:33 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Apr 27, 2016 6:55 PM Flag

    Pay very close attention to MI estimated loss ratios if vary from guidance provided at 4Q ccall...if ratios are increasing it is bad news unless very good LTC margins/news.. LTC margins and MI loss ratios/performance two biggest factors imo...

  • Reply to

    GNW big picture

    by ari_mail Apr 27, 2016 2:35 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Apr 27, 2016 3:08 PM Flag

    //This is the same business as the Canada and Australia ones, there is no reason it should not be profitable//

    USMI is quite profitable, just not permitted to pay dives to holding co. until 2017 is my understanding. . Has to do with capitals levels, etc...which I don't fully understand

  • Reply to

    It appears that rate hikes will be slow...

    by hounddoggiect Mar 29, 2016 12:48 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Mar 29, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    GNW is way overdue for a quarterly report that at minimum is not really bad with stock selling off like the last three reports. One thing for certain is it will be interesting and there will be surprises, hopefully not all negative like recent reports...

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Feb 23, 2016 1:31 PM Flag

    '' As I pointed out in my last article, Genworth has won regulatory approvals for significant premium increases that could add about $210 million to the bottom line in 2016. " This is his quote/claim which he has made before and made in a new article today which imo is false. Management has never said that recent premium increases would add anywhere near 200M to the bottom line in 2016 or in any year. They have said that benefits from the rate increases would begin in 2H of 2016 and while they have not put a number on the benefits they have not described the benefits as being anywhere near 200m. It is not clear at all to me that GNW will be generating an extra 200m annually from rate increases, my take is the 200m will be spread out over many years.

  • Reply to

    Annual Letter - CEO cites "Sense of Urgency"

    by joeschmo_4 Apr 1, 2016 10:37 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Apr 2, 2016 5:44 AM Flag

    " Strategic Options " of course is code word for "were going to sell something"

  • Reply to

    RDN

    by cavalier2015 Apr 27, 2016 2:33 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Apr 27, 2016 6:51 PM Flag

    RDN has about 60m in quarterly profit on about 250m in sales. GNW has about 30m in quarterly profit, cant find any sales numbers. So USMI fair value maybe about 1.3B which is about what Canada is for gnw? My guesstimate on all MI value would be about 3B taking into account exchange rates which reduce values due to strong dollar....3B would be about 6$ share cap if no value to LTC/LI....critical that MI does not weaken too much this year per higher expected loss ratios in Canada and Aussy, US needs to keeps growing profits to pick up slack...

  • Reply to

    New bullish Seeking Alpha article on GNW tonight

    by volunte Feb 16, 2016 10:29 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 17, 2016 3:05 AM Flag

    HawkInvest definitely has been wearing rose colored glasses an gets some important facts wrong and/or overlooks them..

  • cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 4, 2016 9:24 PM Flag

    The LI charges were a shocker which seems to be managements specialty...everyone was concerned about more LTC charges not LI. So just like LTC one question will be are there going to be more LI charges and still not clear if will be more LTC charges...IF there could be confidence that charges are over with other than minor ones than there would be a reason to have some optimism long term but I doubt management will/can clearly state that all material charges are behind them.

    A lot of additional questions need answered : was the material weakness remediated and if so at what cost? What will be the effect of separating LI division and suspending LI/Annuity sales as division comprises about 75% of stockholder equity? How much was debt reduced in 4q towards 1-2b goal and what is 2016 outlook ? What rate increases were granted in 4q and so far in 1q ? What are expected MI loss ratios especially in Australia and Canada.

    Positives were LTC margin increased from 2.3b to 2.5-3b which is significant and of curse no LTC charges. LTC loss ratio down to 73% from 76% in 3q and cash and liquid assets increased..operating earnings appear to be 20c EX special charges but as others have mentioned it was not stated as such in report.

    Hopefully these questions will be addressed at ccall...

  • Reply to

    Annual Letter - CEO cites "Sense of Urgency"

    by joeschmo_4 Apr 1, 2016 10:37 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Apr 2, 2016 5:31 AM Flag

    He said there was solid demand when they sold block in 3q....remember they were going to sell Life and Annuity but didn't due to negative effects on ratings etc, that's what this whole separating LI/LTC is about, pretty clear imo. They will sell Life and Annuity which there apparently is some buyers for which will reduce debt hopefully by 2B and will be just a MI and LTC business..not the best businesses to be in but will have stronger BS if MI holds up and LTC stops bleeding...

  • Reply to

    It appears that rate hikes will be slow...

    by hounddoggiect Mar 29, 2016 12:48 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Mar 29, 2016 4:18 PM Flag

    Joe, totally agree that street looking for structural/ fundamental change in Gnw and until that is evident pps will at best trade between 2.50-3.00. It appears that management is moving with more urgency than in the past which is encouraging but there is still not nearly enough clarity for investors to step in and buy the stock or for analysts to become more positive I will be thrilled if 1q report is just "less bad"

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Feb 16, 2016 8:52 PM Flag

    Both had big buys after their 4q reports...gnw management must know there are more landmines about to explode not to be buying at 1.60-1.80 share

  • Reply to

    Annual Letter - CEO cites "Sense of Urgency"

    by joeschmo_4 Apr 1, 2016 10:37 AM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Apr 1, 2016 5:46 PM Flag

    CEO did say paraphrasing " debt consent deal was a substantial step forward in isolating LTC as we actively assess strategic options for our U.S. Life businesses". I read this as we still want to sell Life and Annuities like planned on doing, stuck with LTC and hope to make it profitable and viable business in future.. This to me was the most important thing he said which of course was not reported in press articles

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 18 hours ago Flag

    Very good overall, USMI kicking #$%$ to cover for expected weak INTL MI. Only big info left out and it is big is LTC margin and success with LTC rate increases. LTC margin was very good for 4q at annual review and was featured in report. No mention this time, why? My hope is that it was basically stable vs 4q and/or they only focus on it for YE review. LTC profit was strong so doubt any big negative surprise but this is what I will be looking for during ccall or Investor Update at 7:30.

    Book value very stable...

    340M pay down of debt a huge surprise which annals will likely love to see and credit agencies may like also. Doubt if will get credit upgrades but may put under review...if no LTC margin surprises tomorrow and get good news per rate increase approvals this should be GNWs turning point..

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Apr 27, 2016 2:33 PM Flag

    Good sign that up today on 1q report. I am going to look again at RDN sales/dollar profit vs gnw USMI to get an idea of fair value of USMI Believe I had estimated up to 2B last time I checked....RDN cap is 2.6B

  • cavalier2015 cavalier2015 17 hours ago Flag

    The more realistic BV is 19.80 which was up slightly...

  • Reply to

    LTC Margin/RBC Ratio

    by cavalier2015 Feb 29, 2016 9:09 PM
    cavalier2015 cavalier2015 Feb 29, 2016 10:13 PM Flag

    Not buying that reason/excuse either...at recent and current very low pps if management was even moderately confident about gnw future they would be buying heavy. There have been many instances where management receives restricted shares and still makes big insider buys..the more likely reasons they have not been buying is they knew more shoes were going to drop just like the Friday report and the 4q report. They also knew in 4q that Aussy and Canada loss ratios would be increasing and would stop LI/annuity sales...bottom line is they are not buying imo because they are not very confident about the future. Nothing stopping them from buying right now imo...there is always something that could affect the share price..

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Feb 26, 2016 4:25 PM Flag

    New York margin negative 355m resulting in reserve charges. I am not surprised , expected NY to be the next shoe to drop...bs that CEO has no comment in this news release

  • cavalier2015 by cavalier2015 Mar 20, 2016 11:19 AM Flag

    Life Insurers Pass Pain of Low Rates on to Consumers

    Long-term-care policies are among hardest hit // GNW CEO quoted....

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