agree, though can see moving up rapidly when believe rates are sustainable...next week may be crunch time as it is the exact time last year the bdi moved up daily into September..
Agree that an issue but imo no way will trump rise in bdi on par with last year...would not surprise me if pps ended up nicely today..
Right on cue ? Looks like market not buying in...imo will take several days or maybe an entire week of strong bdi to get pps moving up substantially...last year pps moved up immediately with bdi.
If Orig cap 2.5 x .60 = 1.5B which is drys's current cap. Is orig's cap larger than listed on yahoo/google or drys's less ?
Yes, one thing about excessive govt regs/fees is they limit your competition..agree that will take the lower fuel costs...
wgrsh, good points, Libya and Iran and could throw Iraq reduced output in also, are the big gorillas in the room imo , hard to see oil not dropping if they get back to normal output especially with increased US output. As I have mentioned before a big question if fuel costs do drop is if fares will hold up. Also, there is a line of thought that lower fuel costs will facilitate more startup airlines...that high fuel costs have been one of the reasons there have not been a lot of startups in last few years..
American Airlines: Recent Selloff ‘Great Buying Opportunity’
Hunter has been spot on for past few years...
By Ben Levisohn
Wolfe Research’s Hunter Keay and Jared Shojaian note that analyst earnings forecasts for American Airlines’ (AAL) have risen much faster than its stock:
We looked at how 2015 consensus EPS estimates have changed YTD compared to YTD stock performance for the airlines we cover.
Simplistically stock prices should trend with changes in consensus EPS estimates, all else equal. P/E multiple contraction/expansion occurs when they don’t.
American Airlines the most out of sync to the upside. American Airlines’ 2015 consensus EPS estimates have increased 63% YTD while American Airlines’ stock is up just 56% YTD. American Airlines is the only U.S. airline stock we cover whose estimates have grown faster than the stock, implying YTD P/E multiple contraction. It’s also worth noting that 2015 consensus EPS estimates for American Airlines still feel too light to us. If numbers keep going up, which we think they should, then it seems the stock should go up, too. The recent selloff seems like a great buying opportunity.
IMO Libya and Iran lack of normal production have been the primary reasons for high oil the past year or two and will be the reason for lower prices if production gets back to anywhere close to normal.
4 Stocks Under $10 to Trade for Breakouts
BY Roberto Pedone Follow | 08/22/14 - 07:00 AM EDT
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DryShips (DRYS) , provides ocean transportation services for drybulk and petroleum cargoes and offshore drilling services. This stock closed up 4% to $3.36 a share in Thursday's trading session.
Thursday's Range: $3.21-$3.36
52-Week Range: $2.14-$5.00
Thursday's Volume: 9.72 million
Three-Month Average Volume: 5.21 million
From a technical perspective, DRYS ripped higher here and moved back above its 200-day moving average of $3.34 with monster upside volume flows. This stock recently broke out above some near-term overhead resistance at $3.07 and its 50-day moving average at $3.10 with strong upside volume. The spike higher on Thursday for DRYS is quickly pushing this stock within range of triggering another big breakout trade. That trade will hit if DRYS manages to clear Thursday's intraday high of $3.36 to some more key overhead resistance at $3.55 with high volume.
Traders should now look for long-biased trades in DRYS as long as it's trending above Thursday's intraday low of $3.20 or above its 50-day at $3.10 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 5.21 million shares. If that breakout develops soon, then DRYS will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $4.37 to its 52-week high at $5.
IMO will see those 20-30c day moves shortly if bdi stays strong, definitely if bdi strong and good company specific news...the stars may finally be aligning...emphasis on may.
premiums are extremely low, I bought calls last couple weeks and eventually will sell covered calls but no way at such lame premiums. they will increase as pps momentum builds imo.