The valuation for the bulk of the assets (the Colorado acreage) is from comparable acreage that recently sold from NBL to SYRG. BCEI's core acreage is in close proximity to that acreage so would be valued comparably. That sale was when oil prices were a bit lower than current prices. The RMI valuation is a good bit lower than the price that bcei recently had under contract for that fell through. Oil prices are about where they were when that contract was made if my memory serves me.
Pretty much spot on IMHO. Except the SYRG purchase of Weld County UNDEVELOPED acreage was at over $15K per acre. Again, that was undeveloped acreage. Putting that conservative valuation on BCEI's Wattenberg acreage gets those assets over $1 bil in value and gets share valuation over $10/share. It appears Mr. Market is giving BCEI about a 75% chance of bankruptcy. Which seems very unrealistic.
I feel like BCEI buyout potential has soared thanks to the hedges and oil climbing. I would not be surprised if they get an offer before the asset sales lock but selling the mid con would really add buyout potential.
I'm with you guys. Bankruptcy seems very unlikely considering the production cost savings over the last year as well as the hedges and oil market looking stronger. In it for the long haul here. Though it's been frustrating. And very good point regarding lack of dilution when share price was higher. Management believes their assets will sell.