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Seagate Technology Public Limited Company Message Board

cben15606 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2014 9:06 PM Member since: Dec 8, 2006
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  • Nearly 14% of outstanding shares. Investor conference next week. Should be interesting!!

  • Reply to

    offshore activity Rig

    by pismire_03 Aug 21, 2014 5:07 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Aug 22, 2014 6:36 AM Flag

    DiscountOffshore(DO) also had a good update but with a predictable hit piece on Bear-rons. DO contracted an upgraded 40 year old rig for one year at $425KPD and a nice 7 month extension on yet another really old 2G, never upgraded, that I had figured on going to the heap.

  • Reply to

    Shelf Drilling IPO and Paragon

    by cben15606 Aug 14, 2014 11:44 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Aug 17, 2014 12:08 AM Flag

    NP ny, Here's excerpt from wsj piece:
    Helen Thomas
    June 12, 2014 10:41 a.m. ET

    Timing is everything when it comes to initial public offerings. So Thursday's announcement by Shelf Drilling, the Dubai-based offshore contractor, of plans to debut its shares in London looks odd. Many big oil companies are cutting back on capital spending, day-rates for drilling rigs are falling and the oil services industry is feeling the squeeze.

    Shelf paid Transocean about $1 billion for 37 so-called jackup rigs to use in shallow water in November 2012. The rigs have been customized and modernized; some idle rigs have been brought back into active service. But seeking to raise about $500 million by floating perhaps 25% of the company would imply those assets have doubled in value in less than two years.

    Half of the stock sold will come from existing shareholders, while new money will also be raised to pay off expensive debt from the Transocean deal.

    And Shelf's rigs appear to be in demand. Its order backlog has more than doubled since the end of 2012. The average daily rate at which it leases out its rigs has risen 17% over the same period. That isn't yet showing up in profit: earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization were roughly flat in the first quarter compared with a year before.

    The question for investors is what compensation they require for the risk that new rig supply displaces older, lower-specification ones elsewhere, which show up in Shelf's core markets. A promised dividend payout ratio of 40% to 60% should help, especially underpinned by an order book whereby 60% of Shelf's capacity is committed for 2015 already.

    Assuming a $2 billion market value, Shelf would list at a multiple of about 5.2 times 2014 Ebitda. That is well below larger, diversified drillers like Ensco on about 7 times and Rowan on closer to 9 times. But Hercules Offshore, a shallow-water driller with an older, lower-spec fleet in the Gulf of Mexico, commands just 4.5 times

  • Reply to

    When might PGN announce a dividend?/

    by jhgrsrch Aug 16, 2014 11:14 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Aug 16, 2014 10:39 PM Flag

    Yes J, I have been building a NE position for the last six months.or so. Adding quite a few shares of PGN last couple days as I think they'll be able to sustain a rich mlp-like dividend(and without the K-1!). I expect the share price to hit the 8's at some point and will buy aggressively then too but don't want to miss low 9's just in case.

    If you're talking about potential share price of 18-20 for PGN down the road, that would not suprise me. What's interesting is that Shelf Drilling has a very comparable fleet to Paragon, really they're the only ones with something of a pure comparison. And their now pulled IPO valuation suggests, through their actions, they are confident about these rigs' future beyond just a couple years and would also support your 18-20 price target I think.

  • Reply to

    When might PGN announce a dividend?/

    by jhgrsrch Aug 16, 2014 11:14 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Aug 16, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    Posted on PGN board:

    From PGN's form 10, PGN intends on paying out $80-90 million/year starting in Q4. So the first dividend should be in the coming months. Of course all ultimately at the whim of the BOD but I would plan on about a $1/share(25 cents quarterly) dividend.

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by typea1949 Aug 15, 2014 6:33 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Aug 16, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    Hey woody,

    From PGN's form 10, PGN intends on paying out $80-90 million/year starting in Q4. So the first dividend should be in the coming months. Of course all ultimately at the whim of the BOD but I would plan on about a $1/share(25 cents quarterly) dividend.

  • Shelf Drilling(SD) is the private drilling company formed from the purchase of RIG's jackup fleet couple years back. SD has 35 jackups it acquired from RIG and 2 under construction.

    SD was to do an IPO in Dubai two months ago(6/2014)that was cancelled but the IPO valuation can be compared to PGN due to their similar fleets i.e. older jackups. The IPO was cancelled possibly due to lack of interest but a couple articles mentioned that apparently there some kind of liquidity problem on the Dubai exchange where it was to list. At any rate SD management decided they were better off staying private, for the time being.

    SD's MarketCap post IPO was to be $2 billion along with about $500 million debt after some proceeds used to pay down debt from $700 million+, leading to an EV of about $2.5 billion. EBITDA of SD last year was $468 million or an EV/EBTDA of 5.34.

    By contrast, PGN's market cap is $800 million with an EV of $2.5 billion, EBITDA in the $850-900 million range for an EV/EBITDA of 2.8-2.9. Also, while their are strong similarities between fleets, I would say PGN has a decidedly better fleet in that PGN has 5 drillships and 2 semisubs currently drilling while SD has none. PGN also has 8 higher value NSea jackups drilling while SD has none. SD has a total of 33 active rigs while PGN has 42. Using these tidbits, I would venture to say that if/when driller sentiment improves and compared to SD's expectations for a similar fleet(per management and their bankers)we should see a dramatic improvement in share price. A double from here would not be an unrealistically optimistic possibility, I think.

  • Reply to

    Mexico pace picking up

    by cben15606 Aug 13, 2014 6:51 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Aug 13, 2014 6:52 PM Flag

    That was from Upstream today

  • Kathrine Schmidt

    13 August 2014 17:48 GMT
    Mexican regulators on Wednesday granted Pemex the bulk of its acreage request as the nation's oil industry opens to private participation, consolidating the state-led company's status as a major force despite losing its monopoly status.
    .
    Mexico state-led oil company Pemex has identified 10 high-priority areas where it will offer partnerships to private players, including closely watched and potentially lucrative deep-water finds Trion and Exploratus in the Perdido fold-belt.

  • Reply to

    PGN CEO bankruptcy history

    by billy_louisiana_guy Aug 9, 2014 9:10 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Aug 9, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    I wouldn't be worried. He appears to have a very good background for managing Paragon. As to the bankruptcy of Seahawk I think his background and the then foregone conclusion that Seahwak would not survive as a standalone driller is likely why he was hired by Pride to run Seahawk. GE's Jack Welch could have been at the helm of Seahawk and Seahawk's destiny would not have changed. The mat supported JACKUP(thanx Petro:-)) industry was on its deathbed then and I doubt any thoughtful person felt Seahawk, as a pure play mat supported jackup driller, ever had the slightest chance surviving alone.

    When Seahawk separated from Pride, it had a lot of debt, 20 mat supported jackups with an abysmal 40% utilization and very low dayrates($50KPD). Two rigs were warm stacked and ten cold stacked. Essentially meaning ten of their twenty rigs were expected to never drill again. Contrast that to Paragon which has maybe 2 or 3 of their rigs out of 44 which are cold stacked and dayrates several multiples of $50KPD.

  • Reply to

    PGN Dividend Prospects

    by gteibuss Aug 7, 2014 3:25 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Aug 8, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    Added some PGN too yesterday and agree with your comp to HERO. HERO like Seahawk, would have gone bankrupt if its mat-supported #$%$ fleet had not been kept afloat by its liftboat biz and still struggles with its mostly mat-supported #$%$s that are limited to the GOM. PGN OTOH at least can market her ILC #$%$s worldwide. While PGN will surely scrap some #$%$s this next few years as newbuild #$%$s come online, I am thinking they will be able to stay profitable enough to provide good cash flow and dividends and even some fleet upgrading as there may well be some very cheap distressed newbuild #$%$s coming out of the yards next couple years given all the spec newbuilds in the yards right now.

    One way I look at PGN's fleet going forward is to look at Discount Offshore(DO)'s oldest floaters. Discount is still managing to sign contracts for some their oldest rigs for profitable multi-year contracts and we are talking about the oldest of the old floater rigs. Very recently Discount's 2G Ocean Lexington signed a 3 year contract with Pemex underbidding a 4G rig while one of their 3G rigs underbid 4G and 5G rigs to get a multi-year contract(I forget which one). If Discount can do this I think PGN will be at least as effective doing same.

  • The EVault website has suddenly sprung a Seagate surprise on us, announcing “EVault is now part of Seagate” and it is “working under the Seagate brand.” What gives?

    The pop-up window says “Seagate will make a more formal announcement about this exciting development in September.”

    EVault’s main event history since being bought by Seagate looks like this:
    •December 2006 - Seagate buys EVault for $185m, saying it wants to expand beyond disk drives into the broader storage solutions category.
    •EVault services are branded i365 (Information, 365 days a year) in 2008, with paperwork search biz MetaLincs and Seagate Recovery Services included in the brand’s offerings.
    •December 2011 - the i365 brand changes back to EVault.
    •November 2012 - EVault will use Microsoft’s Azure cloud as a back-end data vault.
    •Late 2013 - EVault develops LTS2 Amazon Glacier-like cold storage offering that uses Seagate’s object access protocol Ethernet-connected Kinetic drives.

    EVault is developing its own disk archive cloud using Seagate’s drive technology, including, El Reg suspects, Seagate’s shingled media drives and spin-down drives as well as the Kinetic drives. This suggests that the Azure back-end deal may be under threat or is being re-evaluated.

    Seagate has bought Xyratex recently, which has three businesses: HPC ClusterStor arrays, disk storage enclosures for OEMs such as as Microsoft’s StorSimple, and HDD manufacturing test equipment. The idea that Xyratex enclosures holding shingled, spin-down and/or Kinetic drives, or all three, could be used in Seagate EVault data centres seems pretty attractive on a back-of-an-envelope sketch level.

    The EVault pop-up says the new Seagate business unit will be “offering tightly integrated private and public cloud architectures,” indicating the future backup and archive data vaults could be both on-premises and off-premises in a Seagate public cloud – with SeaVault software covering the two in a single operational and management layer...

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