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Seagate Technology Public Limited Company Message Board

cben15606 8 posts  |  Last Activity: May 19, 2014 10:20 AM Member since: Dec 8, 2006
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  • Reply to

    RIG CC

    by cben15606 May 19, 2014 10:18 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 May 19, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    Other useful comments that I think are very positive for include:
    "we expect an increase in demand for offshore drilling equipment within the next 12 to 18 months providing ample opportunities of the existing fleet and for future growth."
    "While ultra-deepwater demand is being driven by Sub-Saharan Africa, other emerging markets and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, we expect demand in Brazil to increase in the near to medium term. So I think that that really helps the situation a lot. We hope that Petrobras will come to the market for more tenders. And by the way, we think they will. So that will help."

    "it’s pretty easy to look to Africa for the amount of demand that’s been out there for quite some time. I mean there’s what, 15 to 20 opportunities there alone. And they’re real opportunities. So it’s not just possibilities."

    No mention of Mexico/Pemex. Maybe they weren't invited to the fiesta!

    BTW, news is out that Petrobras is getting active in renewing contracts on 9 UDW rigs, maybe some midwaters too.

  • cben15606 by cben15606 May 19, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    Probably sounded worse that it really is, then again it is Transocean. A few of their comments struck me:
    "We were pleased to contract the GSF Development Driller II(DD2) for almost one year of work in the Black Sea with Lukoil. We wanted to relocate this rig out the U.S. Gulf of Mexico due to increasingly demanding well programs and the capabilities offered by new build drilling units and found the right opportunity to do so. We were competing against a deepwater unit and the $360,000 per day rate reflects this circumstance."
    What I think this says is that due to that rigs lower specs compared to newbuild GOM UDW rigs coming online, their 2005 built DD2 was looking at difficulty finding follow on work in the GOM, had to relocate and per the last sentence was bidding this older UDW rig against either a 3G or 4G "deepwater" rig. Hence the $360 dayrate. Not indicative I think of higher spec rigs and may be very good as we get thru the next year or so if it creates a daisy-chain whereby some of these older rigs get pushed out of the market. Makes RIG look worse too since recent signings for 4G rigs have been for better terms than what RIG got-ie longer terms at higher dayrates and one of those was in the GOM!

  • Reply to

    Advanced Packaging

    by cben15606 May 5, 2014 9:25 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 May 5, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    This isn't terribly usefu(yetl but a recent Chines IPO, China Wafer Level CSP(Shanghai ticker 603005:CH), specializes in advanced packaging. This company has a current PE of 40 and trades with a market cap of $1.4 billion USD(8B CNY). Another stock I own, OVTI, owns 15-20% of this company.

  • cben15606 by cben15606 May 5, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    People have spent much time lately focusing on KLIC's growing cash pile and positive estimate revisions. But I think the most important recent development has been largely over looked and that is KLIC's accelerated and organic advanced packaging thermal binding machine. Advanced packinging is the new buzzword for leading edge technology in this space. Companies that excel in that type of leading edge technology ususally acquire a cachet of sorts that brings to their stock a share price premium.

    KLIC last year had planned on a commercial release of this platform in 2015 but recently stated it will now launch in September of this year-a dramatic acceleration of the launch. If this product line is as good as Bruno&Co say it is or as good as KLIC has been executing in general, then the days of KLIC being viewed as a stodgy but successful wire bonder will soon become a thing of the past. To be sure, this is a big IF, but if KLIC executes like they have been, I think we could see another dramatic climb in share price over the next year or two ala KLIC's move of 100%+ last few years.

  • Reply to

    What gives with the "talkers"

    by pismire_03 Apr 28, 2014 5:57 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Apr 28, 2014 10:36 PM Flag

    Thanx for the numbers again pismire. And:

    The last few summers have been pretty good to the drillers wrt share price

    There are increasing signs and talk that offshore projects are starting to ramp back up for example:

    Total's recent streamlinging of their offshore Angola project will allow startup of that big one.

    At least five upstream oil and gas companies(Camac Energy, Simba Energy, Swala Energy, FAR Ltd and ERHC) are ramping up activity in Kenya, as the country becomes a focal exploration point in a dash for the commodities. Most of these are offshore blocks.

    Stone's GOM Cardona field just struck oil

    Shorts are immersed in the moment of their gangbanging the drillers

    Last but not least:

    National Oilwell Varco stated their orderbook for rigs/equipment fell 23% in Q1 and expect further weakness.

  • Reply to

    some more perspective re DO rally today

    by nysfparachute Apr 24, 2014 1:48 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Apr 25, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    Always enjoy reading your posts! You're probably onto something given the high shorting across the sector. Again, DO is in a unique situation I think. I have never seen an offshore driller with such a high percentage of the float shorted and that includes DRYS and HERO way back in the day. They may not be adequately hedged.

    Schwab is ripping me off paying only 5% to lend DO shares but I have no doubt the true vig shorts are paying is between 15 and 30%. I prefer Fidelity and Vanguard hands down over Schwab but a pension account has to be maintained at Schwab. I think Schwab has a subsidiary that is heavily into market shenanigans though I forget the name.

  • Reply to

    Watch DO today as a tell

    by nysfparachute Apr 24, 2014 10:00 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Apr 24, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    Agreed. I've never held an offshore driller with as high a SI a DO. Two things:one is that considering Loews owns 51% of the float, the short interest in DO approaches 30% of the float, particularly since
    DO this last quarter wnet out and bought back close to 2 million shares. Doesn't help the shorts that DO is a 7%+ dividend.

    I've also never been paid to loan an offshore driller's shares out to short-5% interest-like i'm getting paid for my DO shares. That's in addition to the 7% dividend.

  • Reply to

    WTI crude at 104 can't hurt

    by nysfparachute Apr 11, 2014 10:45 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Apr 13, 2014 9:33 PM Flag

    That's true chunky though DO is leveraging up more now as they do add newbuilds. DO has more in common with NE than most give credit for I think. DO has 7 6G's 7 5G's and 6 good 4G's as well as a number of older rigs modified for the North Sea giving it a hi-spec fleet of 20+ rigs; comparable to NE when adjusting for DO's much smaller EV. They do have 15-20 older 2G/3G rigs which stirs up the shorts and some of which will be retired but for the most part even these lower spec rigs are contracted thru 2014.

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