Maybe but I said 12/13's which is not a dream. I bought some OVTI in the 13's just last month!
OVTI is a fantastic trading stock. OVTI has what has been these last few years very reliable swings between low and high double digits. Fundamentally, OVTI is extremely cheap and has been solidly profitable over the years, providing something of a floor. Also OVTI has continually increased its BV. Incidently,
OVTI will see the 12/13's very soon but will also push 20 AGAIN sometime in the next 6-9 months I think. Fundamentally, it should be much higher right now but management is what it is. Hoping for a more shareholder-friendly CEO/board is probably akin to hoping for a buyout; highly unlikely.
Agreed. I wouldn't mind a takeover premium but would probably be a 'takeunder' by tomorrow's potential. Lots to be excited about advanced storage going forward and the panel was very impressed with how intensely their R&D is producing results. Clusterstor is a disruptive technology being emulated well I think by Netapp and DDN. Penassas seems to have fallen back. 2014 could be a huge year for XRTX.
SC13 held last week has historically focused on the compute side of Supercomputing/High Performance Computing. But this year SC13 was different in that new technology announcements were dominated by storage related tech with a focus on big data. Xyratex received notable accolades from a panel reviewing SC13. The audio of this panel is on HPCWire's website and a good listen.
The three main storage players in new tech at SC13 were storage vendors Netapp, Xyratex and DDN. Listening to the audio, Xyratex made some strongly favorable impressions with not only their new RAID and CIFS/Gateway software technologies in their Clusterstor9000 but also with the rapidity with which Xyratex continues to upgrade the Clusterstor platform.
The panel agreed that this emergence of storage importance in SC/HPC would be a trend for years to come. This is because as big data and the internet of things has morphed data storage into something of an exponentially growing 'Blob'(much like in the movie), data storage technology itself has not come close to keeping up with that data growth. This is also known as the "I/O Bottleneck" and is causing a lot of problems as users move around these continuously growing unruly blobs of unstructured data.
That Xyratex is even sharing the headlines with Netapp and DDN is remarkable to me as both a growth and value investor.
Agree with Soule and phony_guy(LOL). This whole enterprise applied HPC is a brand new industry just now starting. XRTX and Datadirect(DDN) are HPC competitors and DDN will want at least a $billlion to go public. XRTX new CS9000 coming out in 2014 is really just the first one to seriously target entreprise; incorporating enterprise-centric features like HSM and Gateway. In the meantime a 3% dividend and watch cash incr close to 50% this quarter as they wind down Netapp inventory.
So I guess we can expect some PR's this week? And I think these are new Clusterstor customers or at least ones that haven't been discussed on their blog..LOL
"We are delighted to be exhibiting at Supercomputing again this year. Each year we have raised the bar with exciting announcements and this year will be no exception"......
"Some of the recognized industry names planned to present in Xyratex booth #2107 on Tuesday, Nov. 19 and Wednesday, Nov. 20 include University of California Berkeley, Pittsburg Supercomputer Center, Princeton University,"
Press release; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Friday 15 November 2013]
The global NAND flash memory market is decelerating in the second half of 2013 as demand diminishes for local data storage in smartphones and tablets, due in part to the rise of cloud-based services, according to IHS.....
"Streaming media options and free cloud storage are diminishing the prospects for increased NAND usage in smartphones," Chien continued. "This is true for all three major mobile operating systems, Apple's iOS, Google's Android and Microsoft's Windows Phone. With less need to store data in local devices, the requirement for greater storage is reduced."
Excerpt below forecasting strong growth in SiP which will drive incr demand for copper wire bonding. So add SiP to Auto, Chinese/white box backend(eg Malaysia Panasonic), LED and continued gold-to-copper conversion as continuing drivers of demand for KLIC's copper wire bonders.
Patty Wang, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Friday 15 November 2013]
SiP (system-in-package) currently accounts for 5-10% of the overall production value of the IC packaging sector, according to Tien Wu, COO for Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE). The market for SiP technology is expected to expand fast over the next 3-5 years, said Wu.
SiP has played an important role in competition among mobile device manufacturers. The technology, which can integrate passive components, antennae and components to offer low-cost, small-size and high-speed solutions, will expand beyond the market for smartphones and other mobile devices, Wu indicated.
and that's with CSCO losing some big customers(eg Verizon).
"Our data center business grew 44%, as customers continue to adopt our unified computing systems."
I think that KLIC is suggesting $625-750 million/year at the midpoint of estimated annual copper wirebonder sales(7500) and a sales range of their AP machines of $0-120 million. And $525-850 million based on their range of 6,000-9,000 copper wirebonders/year.
Double-edged sword there. People used to complain too many useless blog posts. Maybe part of an ongoing reorg(?) to reduce costs=lesser posts. Ok by me then. I wouldn't confuse it for lack of work though. Not a bit. I've posted in the last week or two how XRTX/AMD SM 15000's now a big part of the ever growing Verizon cloud. Microsoft's Azure and Cray's storage line keeps getting good press and you know they use XRTX. Same with IBM Puresystems and HP's 3Par. And Lustre is making necessarily slow but steady inroads into enterprise. I think the addition of HPM to Lustre is a big deal for big data.
HDD equipment ever the lumpy wildcard. Not expecting much here but at least we know that exabytes shipped from STX/WDC keeps growing QOQ.
11-12 was a good time to sell some shares which I did-about 10% of my position. Not sure if the market is going to get XRTX much lower but I was thinking of buying back those shares in the low 9's.
CEO Bruno said that their expectation for ultimate copper wire bonding penetration to approach 75% versus prior estimate of 70%. Good news and this could be related to ASE's announcement last week that ASE would be establishing best practices using copper in automotive. Up to this point, copper had still been shunned by the auto industry.
Bruno also said that for the next three years they were forecasting 6,000-9,000 copper wirebonders per year at approx $70,000/wirebonder. This would be about $500 million in annual revenues at the midpoint. Considering that in the MRQ, copper was 80% of there sales, then this would imply annual revenues over the next three years in excess of $600 million/year. This does not include any substantial contribution from their next gen advanced packaging solution which they say will start shipping commercially in about a year-ish timeframe(early 2015). And since they have worked their quarterly break even revenue down from $95 million to about $85 million, it sounds like KLIC is essentially giving kind of a three year guidance in which they expect to be solidly profitable for at least each of the next three years, albeit in a lumpy fashion.
FYI, in prior presentations KLIC has stated they are expecting their next gen advanced packaging machines to sell about $120 million/year targeting 30% of a $400 million expected market in 2015. These machines would sell in the neighborhood of $1 million and at "higher" margins than wirebonders. Wirebonders sell for about $70,000. Bruno also said they expect the global advanced packaging market to grow in the coming decade from a few hudred million now to $4-5 billion. So "advanced packaging" is the industry buzzword these days according to Bruno. Currently copper wirebonding is making all the money and is expected to remain stable but advanced packaging is where the growth is.
per digitimes today. Another new market for KLIC. Next quarter looks dead, though I won't be surprised if KLIC adds a good bit more cash as their current assssets(accounts receivable/inventory are up). So cash pile continues to mount.
BEAVERTON, Ore., Nov. 5 -- Open Scalable File Systems (OpenSFS), the premier non-profit organization advancing and coordinating the Lustre file system community, is pleased to announce the availability of the Lustre 2.5 software release. In recent years the Lustre 2.x release series has delivered major new features and enhancements, enabling success of the Lustre file system not only in demanding HPC environments, but also the challenging world of Big Data and Enterprise computing.
With the release of Lustre 2.5, yet another major milestone has been reached -- delivering the highly anticipated Hierarchical Storage Management (HSM) functionality, often a core requirement in enterprise environments
per Digitimes. Probably a lot of growth in those Chinese/Malaysian etc assets. Particularly perhaps in upgrading to KLIC's copper wire bonders. Maybe.
I'm not a DO fan but I started a position in DO after their miss yesteday in the 60.0x's. Crummy quarter but a lot of their problems like OGX default already known. DO shaping up to have a very good 2014; bunch of good new contracts and newbuilds coming online and fewer surveys. Also a 6% dividend going ex-div next week or so(87.5cents) and good chance they'll raise that next year. More of a mid-term trade. Been adding ESV for the long haul.
What a coincidence. I started a position in DO after their miss yesteday in the 60.0x's. Crummy quarter but a lot of their problems like OGX default already known. DO shaping up to have a very good 2014; bunch of good new contracts and newbuilds coming online and fewer surveys. Also a 6% dividend going ex-div next week or so(87.5cents) and good chance they'll raise that next year.
Not sure I'd compare DO to OVTI though. The offshore drillers are a much more stable lot and all of them have received downgrades these last couple months. This too, is buy territory for OVTI I think and I added a lot of shares today but holding back for lower 13's/12's as well. OVTI is an extremely competent player in an industry with very strong growth for years to come and their BV is too cheap. If the price gets much lower I wouldn't put it past OVTI to do a big buyback like they did a couple years ago on the cheap. Knocked out 15% of the float in one fell swoop with that one.