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Noble Corporation plc Message Board

cben15606 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 21, 2016 7:50 PM Member since: Dec 8, 2006
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  • Reply to

    the call

    by btownsweeps Apr 21, 2016 5:22 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Apr 21, 2016 7:50 PM Flag

    I think you are right. Could move up a lot sooner depending on how next week goes with SCOTUS/patent case. Question: did you see a PR on the VoiceAge injunction vs Vodafone/HTC? Not sure why I can't find one on ACTG's website; this should be a big deal.

  • I think a nice run is about due here.

  • Reply to

    objection filed

    by bushloss04 Mar 30, 2016 10:25 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Mar 30, 2016 10:31 PM Flag

    Cant post a link. Google: "kcc paragon offshore"

    click on kcc/paragon case webpage to load page, then on left hand side click on "court documents"

  • cben15606 cben15606 Mar 30, 2016 9:41 PM Flag

    Objection to the reorganization plan was filed today on behalf of the term loan holders.

  • cben15606 cben15606 Feb 25, 2016 2:24 PM Flag

    "100 patients per month is 25 per week is 5 per day (skip weekends). You
    really think this is a problem?"

    Possibly yes. How many people would be candidates for probuphine? And how many MDs will do these implant procedures? Lots of addiction MDs(psych)won't do them. Lots of pain docs eg anesthesiologists such as yourself may not either-not you personally.

  • in number of suboxone prescriptions he could write(and hence Probuphine as well) but could write UNLIMITED prescritions for oxycontin. The Frontline interviewer was stunned at the apparent lunacy of this policy. The doctor responded in a very reserved fashion that "the irony of that is not lost on me". The narrator then interjects, in his typical way that has you hanging on every word: 'the new FDA review is looking closely at changing this policy'. That could seriously open the doors, literally, to Probuphine mills around the country.

  • cben15606 cben15606 Feb 22, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    Hi insider, i'll play a bit of the devil's advocate. I'm not sure where the share price should be today. I agree with you at least that PGN should be $2 if/when they finish the reorg as is and they start winning contracts but until then I think there will be strong sentiment preventing that upward draft.

    One thing to remember too is that the numbers in the reorg plan were I believe, drawn up and sold by Paragon to the banks. Much of the market will look at these numbers as Paragon talking their book. And while you and I and the banks may believe the numbers it is also true that the banks are not in a good position to quibble with Paragon's pitch. They definitely do not want to take possesion of these rigs.

    For example, look at Vantage and their hi-spec fleet of newbuilds and lack of cashflow. Their creditors had no choice but to takeover Vantage because they can neither reasonably sell nor contract the rigs. And those are top of the line rigs. Similar story with HERO too. And while I think PGN's rigs will go back to work I can't imagine banks wanting to have anything to do with possesion of an aging fleet of rigs in this market.

  • cben15606 cben15606 Feb 21, 2016 5:20 PM Flag

    And docket #0013:

    D. Approval of Procedures for the Filing of Objections to the Disclosure Statement(p.13)

    24. In accordance with Bankruptcy Rule 3017(a), any objection or response also must be served,,, so as to be actually later than Monday, March 21, 2016 at 4:00 p.m.

  • cben15606 cben15606 Feb 21, 2016 5:03 PM Flag

    Excellent thanks cl4p,

    Court Docket: #0012:

    2. Additional Requirements for Non-Consensual Confirmation (page 80)

    "The legal, equitable, and contractual rights of Class 4, the holders of Allowed Secured Term Loan Claims,are unaltered by the Plan......Accordingly, the Plan meets the “fair and equitable” test with respect to secured creditors."

  • cben15606 cben15606 Feb 21, 2016 12:30 PM Flag

    Good info insider, thank you. Also from that article:

    "According to a (Paragon Offshore) news release issued over the weekend, an additional lender under the company’s revolver signed on to the PSA, bringing support for the restructuring to holders of about 96% of the company’s revolving credit agreement debt"

  • Reply to comments

    by cl4p.tr4p Feb 20, 2016 4:54 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 20, 2016 7:09 PM Flag

    I think you're correct in that there has been no objection at least yet. My point was simply that there very well may not be one despite what I believe is fact that the term loan holders are upset about not having a seat at the table. I agree with you that there may not be an objection let alone a successful one based on Paragon's counsel(Weil) which is probably the world's leading firm on Insolvency and Reorganization Law .

  • From U of Minnesota law school:

    "Objections to Plan

    Creditors may object to the confirmation of
    the debtor’s plan in a Chapter 11 case. Such
    objections will usually challenge whether the
    debtor has met the technical requirements of
    Chapter 11. However, creditors may also
    challenge the debtor’s valuation of their
    collateral and the feasibility of the debtor’s
    plan. As a result, it is usually necessary for
    the debtor to obtain expert testimony
    concerning the current value of machinery,
    equipment and other assets. In addition,
    it will be necessary for the debtor to provide
    his creditors with detailed financial
    projections which will assist the bankruptcy
    court in determining that the business may
    be successfully restructured."

    Anyone here think Weil, Gotshal and Manges forgot to think about all this basic stuff?? Or that the owners of $600 million+ revolver just rubber stamped it??

  • Reply to

    Bankruptcy News!

    by freekfn Feb 17, 2016 5:53 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 17, 2016 6:59 PM Flag

    Could be the reason bushloss. Then again after a 300% one day runup some give back should be expected. Hard to assess the potential for the term loan holders to shoot this down. It's entirely predictable that term loan guys would object if none of them were consulted so I would be surprised if Paragon's legal team(Weil) hadn't addressed this.

  • The usual suspects I suspect, are lavishing y'all on SA with graphs, figures, tables and pontificating as nauseum on the indisputably inevitable demise of Paragon. Y'all know, the same "experts" that got it totally wrong up to just a few days ago. How could they possibly be wrong....again.

    Why on earth would one bother even contemplating those "knuckleheads" that actually run the company and who have been in this industry for numerous cycles. Or worse, even think about those bigger "knuckleheads", you know,the ones that actually own Paragon's $1.2 billion secured debt and apparently see fit to just free and clear and out of the goodness of their knuckleheaded hearts GIVE AWAY $400 million(incl bonuses) to those wily unsecured debt holders.

    Seriously though, the folks with perhaps the most neutral and best assessment of the value and potential of Paragon's rigs are the same folks who spent a lot of very recent time with Paragon employees, including with rig crews and rig tours. They are the same ones who apparently think its OK to keep their $1.2 billion investment in Paragon, not forcing a more severe bankruptcy that would have prohibited giving $400 million to get rid of the unsecured debt holders who would have been looking at getting nothing.

  • Reply to

    PGNPF BEATS by one cents

    by insider_expert Feb 16, 2016 9:27 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 16, 2016 9:59 AM Flag

    insider_expert, you cut and pasted incorrectly. Paragon has not reported. You copied the end of another company's(Ceragon) brief just above Paragon's:

    "6:02 am Ceragon beats by $0.01, misses on revs (CRNT) :

  • Reply to

    How many shares will I have after bankrupcy?

    by mike007_1956 Feb 13, 2016 6:44 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 14, 2016 2:51 PM Flag

    ATW is a very good company with a young fleet. But ATW will actually have substantially more debt than Paragon's debt if you include yard payments for their delayed newbuild drillships. These are not reflected on ATW's balance sheet yet but will eventually.

  • Reply to

    How many shares will I have after bankrupcy?

    by mike007_1956 Feb 13, 2016 6:44 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 14, 2016 1:45 PM Flag

    Mike, I thought I would chime in. This deal does three big primary things for shareholders. First it gives 65% of the newly restructured Paragon to current shareholders. Second, the deal significantly reduces their net debt by about one third. Lastly it will give the company 2-3 years minimum to turn its fleet utilization/backlog around.

    The last point I made is a big deal because despite their fleet's age, Paragon has one of the best fleets equipped for safe, cheap and reliable lower specification drilling like workover drilling ops. In this oil price environment, this type of drilling(eg workover) is the most price sensitive to oil prices due to its short term nature-its the easiest and fastest way for oil companies to cut expenses. By the same token it is typically the first to recover. So as oil starts to correct back up, Paragon's rigs should start seeing good demand for their rigs. I think this will start to materialize in the next few quarters by year's end.

  • Reply to

    How many shares will I have after bankrupcy?

    by mike007_1956 Feb 13, 2016 6:44 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 14, 2016 1:31 PM Flag

    Farmer is correct sc3408. You are, for whatever reason, incorrect. Do you have any idea who Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP is? Or what they do? They have done this successfully with plenty of companies and pioneered these out of court deals that maximize value for all stakeholders. I could give you a dozen examples, look at what they did for American Capital Ltd(ACAS) shareholders

  • There is one covenant in place per PR and that is the $110 million cash requirement. Paragon is very good at controlling costs and now they look to have around $250 million+ cash(after payments to bondholders of $345M and revolver of $165M) so they should be OK.

    Eventually, Paragons rigs will start trickling back to work. Look how well they performed in 2015. Of the top three drillers in the world in adding backlog in 2015, Paragon was essentially tied in second place with Seadrill behind #1Ensco. Pretty impressive for what is now about a $1 billion company versus Seadrill(SDRL/SDLP/NADL) which is about a $25 billion company including all their debt and pending yard payments.

  • OK I'm a spelling #$%$

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