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Xyratex Ltd. (XRTX) Message Board

cben15606 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 13, 2014 9:33 PM Member since: Dec 8, 2006
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  • Reply to

    WTI crude at 104 can't hurt

    by nysfparachute Apr 11, 2014 10:45 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Apr 13, 2014 9:33 PM Flag

    That's true chunky though DO is leveraging up more now as they do add newbuilds. DO has more in common with NE than most give credit for I think. DO has 7 6G's 7 5G's and 6 good 4G's as well as a number of older rigs modified for the North Sea giving it a hi-spec fleet of 20+ rigs; comparable to NE when adjusting for DO's much smaller EV. They do have 15-20 older 2G/3G rigs which stirs up the shorts and some of which will be retired but for the most part even these lower spec rigs are contracted thru 2014.

  • 'Diamond has 7 low margin rigs rolling off contract in 2014 in addition to 3 currently idle rigs. Most/all destined for the scrapyard as are DO's earnings.'

    Hogwash.

    Do has 9 rigs starting contracts in 2014 significantly expanding revenue that are either newbuilds(5) or rolling over to significantly higher dayrates. These rigs should provide incremental EBITDA far in excess of that lost by stacking any of those 7 low margin rigs rolling off contract. Besides the five 2014 newbuilds, a couple examples of increased dayrates are the idled Patriot starting 3-year contract in October@$400KPD and the Rover going from $305KPD to $465KPD as of last month for 2 year extension.

    Also keep in mind that DO has been doing a good job of keeping rigs working that have rolled off contract. For example their idled 'old' Ocean Victory recently signed a very nice 2 year GOM contract@$400KPD. Others like the Saratoga continue to find well-to-well work. So don't be surprised if some of their old rigs keep on working.

  • Reply to

    moving down

    by my2bits44 Apr 1, 2014 2:41 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Apr 4, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    "On the other hand, the sector has been spanked already, Yellen is very dovish, and another decent dividend is 5 weeks away."

    And:

    China approved stimulus to bolster growth
    GOM going ganbusters
    NOCs(egPemex)accelerating offshore
    Projects delayed not cancelled
    Offshore drilling still a growth industry
    Plenty of old rigs that can be pruned allowing newer rigs to flourish
    Onshore not without big problems(eg poor safety record)
    Drillers'(IADC)good recent history of supply/demand management
    Rig orderbook will likely slow(sets the stage)
    Offshore drillers most shareholder friendly industry IMO
    Called Black gold for a reason
    I just bot a Yukon XL(still commute by bike tho and am avoiding more cars than ever)

  • Reply to

    Go to DO website, proves spin of Motley Fool

    by shotshooter99 Apr 3, 2014 10:25 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Apr 3, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    Yes. 7 new rigs coming online including the two last quarter. Now considering DO has an EV of $7.5B, this would be like SDRL bringing online 30 newbuild floaters or Ensco bringing online 15. And that's in addition to DO's substantial upgrades and distressed newbuild acquisitions the last few years. Ignoring DO's 15-20ish standard/old/low spec fleet, almost all of which are still working, DO has an impressive 20+ high spec floaters that again, for $7.5B, makes it the best value play of any driller. Now when I say high spec, I am comparing these 20+ rigs to Noble's high spec fleet they will retain post Paragon spin-off.

    DO is also by far the most heavily shorted driller, on or offshore. So expect more of what you point out. I am adding shares of DO though.

  • Cash accounted for. Been a good ride these last few years and a good time running my mouth here. Still heavy into storage tho so i'll be around tryin to make a little money. Later y'all...

  • Reply to

    GOM

    by airweaponsteam Feb 26, 2014 8:48 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Mar 14, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    oilpro again:

    "A few more details have emerged regarding Diamond’s potential contract for semi Ocean Victory. It is now understood the term will be multi-year, but that work will not begin until 2015. Diamond Offshore has finally signed its contract with GoMex Energy Offshore for idle jackup Ocean King. The deal is for three wells plus an option in Vermilion Block 282/East Cameron Block 272, with work starting early next week. The firm portion of the contract is pegged at 105 days, which keeps the rig busy through June."

  • Reply to

    prudent speculator

    by nysfparachute Mar 6, 2014 2:34 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Mar 6, 2014 11:30 PM Flag

    (cont'd) While details are sketchy, the new terms are thought to range from around 1.5 to three years. Further details will be reported once the new deals are in place.

  • Reply to

    prudent speculator

    by nysfparachute Mar 6, 2014 2:34 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Mar 6, 2014 11:27 PM Flag

    You're probly right about a slow recovery but at least industry yields are outstanding. But ya never know, if contracts start showing up maybe sentiment will creep. Oilprodotcom put out a report posted on SDRL IV board showing DO keeping some of those supposedly dead rigs working:

    "Market reports are that Diamond Offshore should have a contract signed shortly for idle jackup Ocean King. It is believed work will consist of at least one well and could be a multi-well deal, with work starting toward the end of next week. The rig has been stacked in West Cameron Block 184 since the middle of the month after it completed work for Energy XXI. It is now expected that LLOG Exploration will complete its well in Mississippi Canyon Block 705 with semi Ocean Saratoga, which will extend the contract another 30 days into early April. Currently, Diamond does not have any follow-up work for the rig. The company is reportedly close, however, to signing a follow-up deal for semi Ocean Victory, although no details are yet known. The rig will complete its current contract with Stone Energy early next month and Diamond says there could be a gap between the end of the contract and start of the next. Finally, ultra-deepwater newbuild drillship Ocean BlackHawk is due to arrive in the Gulf of Mexico in late April and should begin its five-year contract with Anadarko Petroleum around June 1. Diamond took delivery of the rig from Hyundai Heavy Industries in South Korea earlier this month. Sister ship Ocean BlackHornet will be delivered later this year and will mobilize to the Gulf of Mexico, also for a five-year deal with Anadarko. In Mexico, semi Ocean Ambassador arrived earlier this week, and is now undergoing customs acceptance before starting its two-year contract with Pemex. On the jackup side, it is understood Diamond will likely receive multi-year extensions from Pemex on jackups Ocean Scepter and Ocean Titan, which have contracts that expire in April and May respectively. While

  • Reply to

    GOM

    by airweaponsteam Feb 26, 2014 8:48 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Mar 3, 2014 11:15 PM Flag

    From oilprodotcom posted on IV SDRL board:

    "Market reports are that Diamond Offshore should have a contract signed shortly for idle jackup Ocean King. It is believed work will consist of at least one well and could be a multi-well deal, with work starting toward the end of next week. The rig has been stacked in West Cameron Block 184 since the middle of the month after it completed work for Energy XXI. It is now expected that LLOG Exploration will complete its well in Mississippi Canyon Block 705 with semi Ocean Saratoga, which will extend the contract another 30 days into early April. Currently, Diamond does not have any follow-up work for the rig. The company is reportedly close, however, to signing a follow-up deal for semi Ocean Victory, although no details are yet known. The rig will complete its current contract with Stone Energy early next month and Diamond says there could be a gap between the end of the contract and start of the next. Finally, ultra-deepwater newbuild drillship Ocean BlackHawk is due to arrive in the Gulf of Mexico in late April and should begin its five-year contract with Anadarko Petroleum around June 1. Diamond took delivery of the rig from Hyundai Heavy Industries in South Korea earlier this month. Sister ship Ocean BlackHornet will be delivered later this year and will mobilize to the Gulf of Mexico, also for a five-year deal with Anadarko. In Mexico, semi Ocean Ambassador arrived earlier this week, and is now undergoing customs acceptance before starting its two-year contract with Pemex. On the jackup side, it is understood Diamond will likely receive multi-year extensions from Pemex on jackups Ocean Scepter and Ocean Titan, which have contracts that expire in April and May respectively. While details are sketchy, the new terms are thought to range from around 1.5 to three years. Further details will be reported once the new deals are in place.

  • Reply to

    GOM

    by airweaponsteam Feb 26, 2014 8:48 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Mar 1, 2014 2:46 PM Flag

    Hi airweapon,

    Any details on these contracts you refer too? No PRs or fleet status showing new Victory contract etc. Thanks

  • cben15606 cben15606 Feb 24, 2014 7:51 PM Flag

    Last week on the Ensco call we were told:

    "Regarding the worldwide order book for floating rigs, we count 27 competitive new rigs to be delivered before the end of 2014, of which 13 are uncontracted. We believe that approximately 5 of these rigs are in discussions with operators and could be committed at this time."

    So I think there's a good chance one or more of these rigs are now or will soon be contracted. Besides this operators obviously prefer newbuilds and Seadrill is good as they get when striking a deal. Finally, and this was cross posted on the IV board, Rubin/Ensco mentioned PBR has a couple tenders for "one or more rigs" that he speculated could be to hedge extensions of current rigs up for renewal.

    Out of about 70+ rigs drilling, PBR has probably about a dozen rigs that are decrepit 2G rigs that are really old/never been seriously upgraded and will be rolling off contract late 2014 or 2015. They may get low-ball renewals or more likely I think is that these are the typical rigs that get put out to pasture-they're terribly inefficient for any large organization seriously aiming to reduce costs on these expensive wells. If that's what PBR is doing then these could be tenders for enough rigs to blow the diapers off some of these analysts. Most of the legacy drillers, led by DO but also RIG,NE and ESV have some of these 2G's in Brazil.

  • Reply to

    Chirp Chirp

    by pismire_03 Feb 18, 2014 10:52 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 18, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    That's a whopper of a JU deal. The 1.8 billion is for 5 JUs for 6 years-30 rig years and I believe that will be incremental JU demand. So while Pemex is going for newbuilds here it shows there is incremental demand for JUs and should be good news for NE/Paragon.

  • Reply to

    44.44

    by soupkitchen44 Feb 17, 2014 7:11 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 18, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    Google or bing: bloomberg shanghai china wafer level csp

  • Reply to

    44.44

    by soupkitchen44 Feb 17, 2014 7:11 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 17, 2014 8:15 PM Flag

    OK thanx to both of you Soup and DB100. Remarkable PE-like payoff.

  • Reply to

    44.44

    by soupkitchen44 Feb 17, 2014 7:11 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 17, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    That 44 share price is CNY which is 6.1:1 USD. Which would make OVTI's stake worth closer to 50 M USD. Still pretty good return though.

  • Reply to

    One message on this page, 19 ignored, amazing

    by soulec Feb 12, 2014 5:24 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 14, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    Thanx and luck to you too. Still in STX/WDC. XRTX too. Skimmed over CRAY's transcript from yesterday. For STX longs it's a good read since they focus on their Sonexion/data storatge(read Xyratex Clusterstor)business at length and clearly the market is extremely bullish on CRAY.

  • Reply to

    IN THE MEANTIME

    by soupkitchen44 Feb 11, 2014 10:23 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 11, 2014 11:38 PM Flag

    Disregard. I saw robertnesta's post. It looks to about $200M if that pr is correct,

  • Reply to

    IN THE MEANTIME

    by soupkitchen44 Feb 11, 2014 10:23 PM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 11, 2014 11:26 PM Flag

    I think that puts WLCSP well over $1B market cap. Do you know how much OVTI owns? TIA

  • Reply to

    Anyone have a comment about the SA article...

    by twhite113 Feb 6, 2014 7:22 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 8, 2014 10:45 PM Flag

    What Gatrz said. Henry Newman, an IT exec and blogger wrote a pretty scathing review debunking this Backblaze report titled: "How Not to Do Research". He backs it up with a lot of data

  • Reply to

    Spinco is now Paragon Offshore

    by pismire_03 Feb 4, 2014 10:47 AM
    cben15606 cben15606 Feb 4, 2014 7:56 PM Flag

    Agreed Petro. I thought there seemed to be some heavy hitters at Noble going with Paragon. During Stilley's stint@HERO, GOM shelf was in decline and with the glut of GOM JUs, drillers were stepping on each other trying to get their ILC JUs out of GOM, long before Macando. The mat-supported JUs like HERO's were stuck in the GOM and getting #$%$ work if at all and HERO was basically living on their liftboat fleet as I recall. Didn't make a profit for 6 or 7 straight years. HERO or Seahawk those days would make anyone look lousy.

    But I think the African ops guy and VP of marketing among others going to Paragon sounds good.

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