It's hard to know why someone would sell. But, from Google's perspective, buyout or not depends on the anticipating settlement cost. I don't see the need of a buyout if the settlement is under $500 million. On the other hand, if it's in the $1+ billion range like Tivo predicted, then Google buying Tivo would make a lot more sense.
We will have a better picture when both Tmobile and MetroPCS report their number in 17 days.
At the moment, the combined Tmobile/MetroPCS company is valued at $6.71/share, which is crazy.
AUGT is the biggest loser in my porfolio with a average cost of $1.80+/share. However, it seems like the current CEO is doing all the right thing, and HC is growing at a good pace. I will wait until the announcement of the new IP strategy he mentioned in the CC, then to see if I should add more shares or just let it rot in my porfolio until a buyout.
Have been a Groupon customer for about 2 years, then until recently, for no apparent reason, I have found myself buying a lot of Groupon deals and goods, averge about $50-100/month...
Groupon with a $15 billion valuation was ridiculous, but at $3 billion, it seems like a good bet. In for a 10k long position.
Excessive spectrum is one of the easier problem to solve in a merger, look at what AT&T propose when it wants to merge with Tmobile and how Verizon divest its spectrum in the recent deals. For Sprint, it doesn't lack spectrum, what it lack at the moment are customers that could expand their scale to compete with Verizon and AT&T.
By signing Sprint, Clearwire is somewhat in Softbank's pocket unless they do something very stupid. MetroPCS on the other hand, Softbank has no control yet and they only has a few months to make a decision. With the timing, speed, and method Softbank is using to acquire Sprint, I don't believe it's a pure coincident to the recently anounced Tmobile/MetroPCS deal.
Assume Sprint took out Clearwire and take over by Softbank, the best move next is to buy MetroPCS to avoid future uncertainties of regulation approval.
It's really a question about how many customers Sprint is willing to lose. If the gov't prefer 4 players instead of 3, do you rather lose 42+ million customers (MetroPCS/Tmobile combined) or the 33 million (Tmobile only)? The answer is obvious.
Some betting that MetroPCS/Tmobile combine is going to get weaker, but what if they get better? It's going to cost more for Sprint to acquire and it's harder to get approval. More importantly, why gamble when there is a more sure way? Which is to acquire MetroPCS first. Moreever, by taking away MetroPCS, Tmobile's LTE initiative would delay by at least 6-12 months and without the scale, Tmobile is more likely to continue it's downward spiral. That, would give Sprint a better chance of landing Tmobile in the forseeable future.
To add to your list, MetroPCS also has $1+ billion in annual EBITDA, since Sprint is operating at a loss and has tons of loss carry forward, most of this $1+ billion will be tax free for several years if MetroPCS and Sprint merged. Combine this extra billion income and the $2+ billion cash MetroPCS to Sprint's balance sheet, Sprint's future refi and debt default expenses are going to be significantly lower as well.
Also, I never value Tmobile/MetroPCS with a VZ or T multiple, I was using the current MetroPCS multiples to come up with the $20/share estimate.
No, this is not a Sprint/Nextel remake, the situation is totally different. One biggest difference is when they merged in 2005, there is no smart phone and there is no LTE, which every wireless company now is intergrating as the foundation of their future.
With that said, it takes about 6-9 months to get this merger to be approved (if Sprint don't step in) and by that time, MetroPCS already finish its LTE launch in majority of its markets, this alone could improve the margin tremendously. Not to mention this would also speedup Tmobile's LTE intergration by nearly a year. Such opportunities set them up very well to introduce "Iphone 6" in Sep/Oct 2013.
Deutsche Telekom AG has a current market cap of $54 billion USD. The $42.2 B is in Euro.
Tmobile USA is said to contribute about 25% of DT's total income, not valuation. However, we could also try to use the EBITDA valuation, Tmobile/MetroPCS combined ttm EBITDA is about $7.9 Billion, using MetroPCS' current 3.26x market cap/EBITDA multiple, the new company should worth about $25.7 billion. (VZ has a 4.26x and AT&T has a 6.22x MC/EBITDA multiple for comparison's sake)
Personally, I wouldn't use any Sprint's multiple to value the new Tmobile/MetroPCS company, because Sprint hasn't make a dime for so many years.
It seems like Mr. Market is valuating the MetroPCS/Tmobile company with a Sprint multiple, which is under 0.5x to its revenue. People forget that AT&T just recently offered $39 billion for Tmobile USA alone, even if one discount that by 50%, the new company would still worth $23.5 billion when adding PCS current market cap of $4+ billion.
According to the latest article, combined revenue is about $25 billion for the two merged company. If we give no credit to Tmobile's bussines and assign a 0.9x valuation to the revenue (PCS is currently having a 0.9x valuation) we get a market cap of $22.5 billion (VZ currently has a 1.15x and AT&T has 1.72x market cap/revenue), MetroPCS current shareholders' take would be $5.85 billion, divide that by 365 million shares outstanding, that's $16.03/share, plus the additional $4/share, the fair value for the current MetroPCS share should be around $20/share...
Please correct me if my math is wrong.
I bought this stock expecting it to hit $15+ by year end because of the Yahoo and AOL trial, when those two are still in the process, I wouldn't be happy with anything below $10, but now, $8 is a god send, I will vote yes with both my hands and feet if that happens.
If history repeats itself, TA Associates selling is actually very good for the stock price.
MetroPCS stock bottoms at $5.65/share in Nov 2009, when the price went back up to around $9/share in June 2010, TA Associates started its massive selling. During this process, the stock went all the way up to $18, then when the stock came back down to around $16/share at the end of July 2011, TA Associates stoped the selling.
So from when TA Associates started to when it end, between 2010 to 2011, MetroPCS stock price has gained about 80%. Fast forward to September 2012, now TA Associates is unloading again from around the $10/share mark, also during a comeback from $5.53/share in June 2012.
PS: I think TA Associates was one of the original investors back in 2007 who invested millions in MetroPCS and as a result, received about 30 million shares of the company stock.
It's sad, but true.
Personally, I still believe the value of the company, but I was so wrong about the timing, and that's why my Augme holding is under by almost 50%. PA took a good bet, but he lost.