Seen last night at Carnegie Deli eating a Pastrami Sandwich (no joke either)... Strange.
Just came across the wire. Kinda toppy here I think.
Charles Moscoe's take on Estee Lauder's 'recession-proof' business.
Of course I covered. Was a speculative earnings play. Made 4% on the overnight, covered within 20 min. of the open.
The more I think about data and mobile, I keep thinking how useful of an asset they would be to Facebook. Facebook has more data than anybody and can't crack mobile. Groupon is misunderstood by the non-tech savvy. Clearly poorly managed with a dreamer at CEO and kids in sales positions without too much of a clue, but the valuation still is insane at these levels. A takeover would not shock me here. I won't be holding long term, but I can't see this getting too much lower and the upside certainly greatly outweighs the downside here.
I've been a huge Groupon bear from day 1. In fact I have posted many times here about my personal experiences with the company and their idiot salesmen.
However, you hit the nail on the head with MOBILE and even I today went long. Pessimism has reached too extreme of a level here. They are a major buyout target at this level.
They are trading at a forward PE of less than 10 right now, which is insanely low for what is still a growth story.
This will bounce at least $1 from these levels, you can bet on that. I'd be shocked if this goes into the $4s, but I'll double my position.
The gig is up for Groupon. No more good merchants want to partake. How many 87% off dog walking can you sell?
This is the next BBY, HGG, CMG or whatever you want to call it. Dead and overpriced retail play with declining margins and slowing sales growth. Upside is a few points, downside is the edge of a cliff... We shall see tomorrow.
Contacted by Groupon Goods basically begging to do a deal with one of my popular products months ago, and they botched the entire deal. These people are impossible to deal with. Very amateur sales people with zero business experience. Right when the deal was coming to fruition they did a 'shakeup' and put a new person on the deal who just dropped the ball. Glad it never happened though as they were killing us on price and I doubt we would have benefited at all from it.
Just to expand on the rating agency's view of Genworth. They are seen so positively not only because of the financial strength of their holding company but their loss reserves are about 20% higher than RDN or MTG per claim. Either they are overly conservative and will be seeing a windfall in reserves shortly once the claim cycle runs its course, or RDN and MTG will have to significantly increase their reserves and that will bury them. Definitely the best of the breed here and priced for disaster.
1) Many positive potential catalysts, from MI spinoff to complete sale of the company all looming. The CEO says they can't discuss it publicly, but the decisions have been made, so anticipate an announcement shortly.
2) Book value is nearly 7 times the current share price. Huge value just in runoff alone. This intrinsic can't be ignored and barring disaster the share price will eventually move towards this number.
3) Company is still very profitable. Will earn over $1 per share next year, and as high as $1.50 share. Absurd valuation at a forward PE of 3 or 4 when sales are still growing YOY.
4) Heavy institutional ownership, including big hedge funds like Highfield owning a significant stake.
5) Insider buying at higher levels throughout the last year. I imagine we aren't seeing any the past few weeks due to pending material news and the inability to trade on that.
6) Macroeconomic trends surrounding the business are improving, and in some segments like MI, the improvements are dramatic.
7) Diversified portfolio with significant Canadian and Australian assets. Just part of these could be sold to one of the big mega banks in either of those countries for more than the current market cap.
8) Analysts are behind this company. No downgrades following the latest earnings and the lowest PT is still 15% above the current share price (UBS at $5.50).
9) Rating agencies so far positive on GNW overall financial health. While they have significantly downgraded other MI companies like RDN and MTG, they have been bullish on GNW. Company seems to have close working relationship with Moodys and I expect them to work within their framework and avoid an impending downgrade that seems to be a topic of fear at the moment.
10) Not normally one to read too much into technicals, but a strong 20% bounce off the lows and some obvious signs that capitulation is likely in following the drop on earnings and the day after to cement a near-term low. Not likely to retest or see $3s. Chatter is turning positive.
That same Dahlman Rose analyst had a $100 price target on MCP all last year... I wouldn't put too much faith in his opinions.