Gilead generated 2.3B of sales in first quarter. Agreed. What about Idenix? It had only $1M (with an "m") of revenue in the year before it was acquired. How much sales does Keryx need to reach a 2.5Billion market cap. About $250Million. Surely that is far above current expectations of $30M in 2016. But the fact is, Keryx has $200M in cash and a number between $0 and $55M due from Torii. There is a small but non-zero value for Fexeric. There is a $6M royalty revenue coming in from Torii this year. Add in the Phase 3 IDA results and I do not see a $2.5B buyout as "unreal"
spooledup77 - They are saving money on the IV iron and ESA treatment. So they are choosing Auryxia when they are able to (over competing phosphate binders) and then cutting back on the iron. This is not "technically" off label. The divergent growth rates in IMS versus Davita speak for themselves.
hooclaus - on the CC they said 62%. But I have been tracking Rx numbers reported by fsulevine, dough (Twitter) and keystone. IMS Rx is 3166 for 3Q and 4310 for 4Q. Also, the company reported 4500 total for 3Q and 7800 total for 4Q. It does work out to 162%. Please check my math. I could not believe my eyes when I saw this.
Folks - get this.
Between 3Q'15 and 4Q'15, Auryxia Rx reported through IMS grew 36% (3166 to 4310) while Specialty Rx (Davita/Fresenius) grew 162% (1334 to 3490)! Wow!!!!! Clearly, Davita is not waiting for Ph3 IDA results. They are seeing the Iron and ESA benefits and acting accordingly. Once the market realizes this - KABOOM!!!
There were so many speakers on the call yesterday that I think the company is trying to take the focus away from Greg Madison. Perhaps GM's days at Keryx are numbered? Perhaps Seth will engineer a merger with Akebia (AKBA) and install Ron Butler as the CEO of the combined entity??