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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

cemadh_99 31 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 3, 2016 10:23 AM Member since: May 8, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Riona 2015 sales

    by hooclaus Feb 3, 2016 9:55 AM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Feb 3, 2016 10:23 AM Flag

    This is awesome news. Is it posted on a Japanese language site? I went to Torri's English language site and the total is given for the entire company - not the Riona numbers. Please let us know the website to get this info. Thanks

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Scripts for week ending 1/22

    by fsulevine Jan 29, 2016 12:21 PM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Jan 30, 2016 12:31 PM Flag

    dave - am I happy with the script numbers? No. I hope the specialty pharma numbers will show better growth. That being said, if you look at quarter totals, the refill rates are growing.
    Refill totals April to June - 626, July to September -1232, October to December 1892

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Black rock

    by sellnhms Jan 26, 2016 5:08 PM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Jan 26, 2016 5:56 PM Flag

    Looks like BlackRock added about half a million shares to their existing position
    According to the 13G/A filing BlackRock now has 5393789 shares sole voting power and 5620225 shares Sole dispositive power.
    They had about 550,000 less in both categories when they filed the earlier 13G/A on Feb 02, 2015.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Double Bottom ?

    by stjudepa Jan 17, 2016 11:16 AM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Jan 18, 2016 7:21 PM Flag

    Received! Thanks again.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Double Bottom ?

    by stjudepa Jan 17, 2016 11:16 AM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Jan 18, 2016 4:24 PM Flag

    mims12886 - would love to read the report. My email is cemadh at hotmail. Thanks

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SA article on KERX not behind paywall anymore

    by cemadh_99 Jan 15, 2016 2:42 PM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Jan 15, 2016 5:31 PM Flag

    I do not expect people to be PC - esp. in an anonymous message board like this one. But I am curious as to what religion has to do with CKD or Auryxia or anything related to Keryx?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Google: "street show me the money Keryx" to find it on Seeking Alpha

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Strange days indeed.....

    by davecarmen48 Jan 15, 2016 12:30 PM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Jan 15, 2016 1:22 PM Flag

    Not to mention- in two years the company would have added $40M to $100M in Auryxia revenue and milestone payments from Torii and .....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Chance of BK or pull out

    by cemadh_99 Jan 8, 2016 6:16 PM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Jan 14, 2016 9:00 AM Flag

    rayonman11 - I looked at a few drugs. As far as I can tell, Western Europe sales for most drugs exceed Japan in terms of revenue. Would like to hear your thoughts on why you said $8M for Fexeric in Europe given $40M for Riona and given the pre dialysis label. For example , google "rituxan pharma western europe japan sales". Western Europe is multiples (8x to 10x) of Japan sales. France and Germany by themselves exceed Japan. Japan 4.3%, France 4.4%,Germany 5.1%

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cemadh_99 by cemadh_99 Jan 12, 2016 4:27 PM Flag

    Another take on the webcast - GM is signalling to BP. "We have the cash and we are confident that we can make the company profitable in 2-3 years. We also have good data on the IDA trials and we will share that with the world soon. We can be an itch that morphs into a big payne in the buh-hind for years or you can buy us out now."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • GM is signalling to BP. We have the cash and we are confident that we can make the company profitable in 2-3 years. We also have good data on the IDA trials and we will share that with the world soon. We can be an itch that morphs into a big pain in the axse for years or you can buy us out now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There are many smart and thoughtful posters on this board. So I thought I would ask you all if a bankruptcy or abandonment is possible. Seth has invested an additional $125M in a 5 year zero coupon convertible. The company has about $230M total cash and no debt. Riona is at $40M a year in Japan. Auryxia is probably at $20M per year in the US. Fexeric can do $40M or more in its first year in Europe. Trial results for IDA look good. Given all the above - what are the chances that Keryx would declare bankruptcy or pull its product and cease operations? I think that the chances are close to 0% - at least till mid 2016. At that point we will know if the IDA opportunity is valuable. In any case, with all this going for Keryx I would be very nervous shorting Keryx. But it seems that the shorts have had a very profitable time so far. When do they stop paying 20% to borrow and decide to cover? Why are so many shares still short?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Scripts for week ending 12/11

    by fsulevine Dec 18, 2015 8:56 AM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Dec 18, 2015 10:07 AM Flag

    Thanks for the Script numbers fsulevine. Much appreciated!
    As I posted earlier - starting Jan 2016, many plans will not have precertification requirements. Many plans will have Auryxia at Tier 2 in place of Tier 3. Others will have Auryxia at Tier 1 even! Script numbers will show a significant increase by mid Jan.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This is a very strong action

    by kerx4sale Dec 18, 2015 10:00 AM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Dec 18, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    This may a delayed reaction to all the updated and improved insurance coverage news. Starting Jan 2016, many plans will not have precertification requirements. Many plans will have Auryxia at Tier 2 in place of Tier 3. Others will have Auryxia at Tier 1 even! Script numbers will show a significant increase by mid Jan. Onward and upward!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Dec 17, 2015 7:10 PM Flag

    My take
    1) Fexeric is to be prescribed as a phosphate binder. IDA is not in the picture for Fexeric at this time.
    2) They were in talks with one or more BP entities to partner in Europe even before Fexeric approval
    2) Poor Auryxia sales caused BP entities to demand weaker terms that Seth/Keryx said no to
    3) Current plan is to show got traction in Auryxia sales (as a phosphate binder) and get back to negotiations in January after 4Q2015 results for Auryxia

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Predictions about tomorrow?

    by stocktradernoob Dec 8, 2015 12:57 PM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Dec 8, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    Capita extended its offer to Dec 16. Not sure how that impacts the Dec 9 deadline.
    I am going to play anyway - I say that there are no higher bids from existing players and no new offers. Capita will try to convince the Xchanging board that they should look beyond price (as another poster commented in an earlier thread)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Well folks...

    by daoryebba60 Dec 5, 2015 8:11 PM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Dec 6, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    "focus" not focused"
    Also - $28.5M in Japan was in 9 months. The 12 month numbers will be higher. Also,we are owed milestone payments from Torii/Japan Tobacco.Some number between $0 and $55M
    Besides Japan, Europe and US - we have some potential for "Rest Of World" sales- yes/no?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Well folks...

    by daoryebba60 Dec 5, 2015 8:11 PM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Dec 6, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    "focus" not focused"
    Also - $28.5M in Japan was in 9 months. The 12 month numbers will be higher. Also,we are owed milestone payments from Torii/Japan Tobacco.Some number between $0 and $55M
    Besides Japan, Europe and US - we have some potential for "Rest Of World" sales- yes/no?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Well folks...

    by daoryebba60 Dec 5, 2015 8:11 PM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Dec 6, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    daoryebba60 - I for one hope you stay. You have provided a valuable counterpoint to my "irrational exuberance".
    I agree - script numbers are extremely poor and the share price is "in the dumps"
    But...
    1) We got a 5 year "interest free loan" from Baupost
    2) Baupost has rights for one board member and one observer
    3) United HC Oxford removed precertification requirement. This is just a month after the one year anniversary of the US launch. Other insurers might follow suit
    4) Even with #$%$ poor" script numbers, we are at a run rate of $16M a year in US sales and we did $28.5M in Japan.
    5) I do think the company is focusing its marketing and sales. Adding sales effort where the traction is - such as Fresenius and Davita and removing sales efforts in non-metro areas with less nephrologist density
    I am sure with Baupost's "guidance" cost control and focused will only get better
    6) I do not think this is the right time to sign up a partner in Europe. I think mid-2016 when (hopefully US sales are at a more respectable number is the time to do it. Better terms for the next several years is worth a few months of lost sales
    With all the above, plus the potential for label expansion to include IDA AND the fact that the current market cap is only about $600M - why would anyone short this company or sell their long position?
    Long and strong....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It's a cut throat environment...

    by daoryebba60 Nov 29, 2015 12:20 PM
    cemadh_99 cemadh_99 Nov 29, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    daoryebba60 - The following is from Keryx's latest earnings call
    "The total of Auryxia prescription increased 45% in the third quarter from the second quarter. On the bar chart on this slide, you can see the consolidated prescriptions as reported by IMS shown in pink and the DaVita Rx and Fresenius Rx pharmacies is shown in blue. These data are showing that today approximately 40% of our business is being generated through pharmacies that are not reported by IMS. You can also see that a disproportionate share of growth is coming this segment"

    It seems that Keryx is securing prescriptions from Davita and Fresenius. Why do you feel that Keryx does not stand a chance in light of the above statement by the CEO?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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