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Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

ch47ady 20 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Feb 3, 2009
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  • initially every surgeon had to do several open procedures under osiris supervision. with partner arthrex arthroscopy is introduced and perfected.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ch47ady by ch47ady Jul 5, 2015 3:47 AM Flag

    of course we discussed a bit our earnings models. there are no big differences.its pretty clear that based on our 78 % gross margin we will have a tremendous run up in eps once those incremental sales come true. it depends how much build up costs have to be charged in the present early phase. we can count on a 20 % net profit margin once we are in normalized business. using 50 m sales in q4 as a sample would lift us over 1 $ eps. we agreed that a pe of 50 would be reasonable at this time. for our products, we have to more think of a platform to be developed. this will keep us busy for many years. the time for biggest stock appreciation is right in front of us. enjoy !

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    meeting top analyst of osiris

    by ch47ady Jul 3, 2015 2:52 AM
    ch47ady ch47ady Jul 3, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    i guess blue sky is the right expression. our fundamental scientific basis is very sound and breakthrough. once living stemcells are accepted then the sky is the limit.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • i consider Edward A. Tenthoff of Piper Jaffray the best analyst covering our co. i had yesterday a chance to discuss our co. with him at lenght. he likes osir a lot and keeps an overweight rating and a price target of $ 28. this is mostly based on grafix product sales and does not include our two new product lines. as soon as our co would split those new lines, a much more acurate forcast could be made. the amazing thing is really that his forcast is made based on only sales of 22m, 23m and 25m for the remainder three qus of the year. he is well aware that those figures probably are much to low, but for lack of information it is not possible not make a better forecast. finally getting full insurance coverage is a must. based on the cc`s and my former posts you know that i expect already in q2 sales exeeding 25 m and by year end a run rate towards 50 m. our tightly controlled shareholding is a clear disadvantage for now. we may still stay with the steep discount of our stock price for a short time, but when the cashbell starts ringing all will change.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Where is ch47ady?

    by ozark580 Jun 8, 2015 3:21 PM
    ch47ady ch47ady Jun 8, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    hi ozark, i am just relaxing. i have not much more to contribute about osiris. its very difficult to find another stock with similar potential and such low risk profile. its a good time to keep the powder dry and only stay with the best horses. lets go fishing .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Recognizing planted stories [+ a little]

    by jacosa Jun 3, 2015 10:34 AM
    ch47ady ch47ady Jun 4, 2015 10:08 AM Flag

    you describe 100 % how ws is working ! congrats ! the opportunity is here, lets hope management is not screwing it. they lost on their stock option plan and now they golden parachute ceo change with 12 m. pressure is high on them to perform and not only enrich themselves. i stay long as i am convinced that we have only scratched the tip of the iceberg on genetics testing. soon many new products will start to kick in. its always a good start to be single long but having made homework. keep going please.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New branch?

    by bub.bles22 May 21, 2015 4:47 PM
    ch47ady ch47ady May 22, 2015 7:16 AM Flag

    yes, i guess thats the case. if a product is sold in the us and you have a worldclass distributor that can be held liable for any damages, not many countries will disallow it. for little osiris with grafix thats another story. i am not an expert on this matters.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New branch?

    by bub.bles22 May 21, 2015 4:47 PM
    ch47ady ch47ady May 22, 2015 2:53 AM Flag

    i think that is done for international sales of bio4 and cartiform, because international companys do not want to get their international profits get taxed in the us. grafix will come later, after having us bla.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ch47ady by ch47ady May 16, 2015 2:19 AM Flag

    lets have a closer look at form 10-q. they say q1 sales from cartiform and bio4 is still less than 20 % of sales or lets guess 17 % of 21 m or 3.6 m. we know bio4 started only close to the end of q1. we can guess that cartiform was therefore pretty good selling already in q1. then they say those two new products are complementary products to grafix, simplifying the sales efforts. meaning partnerships let us make direct sales and leveraging our sales force over more products. our sky high sg&a of 61 % should benefit handsomely from that. since our gross profit margin remained at 78 %, we get first indication that the new products have the same margins. those facts make my prediction of a strong q2 all the more plausible. we could even better prognose q4 at a run rate of over 200 m. ( grafix should make it to 25 m and new products the same). at that level we should be valued at about $ 50. i do not think our undervaluation will remain until then. do not forget, with our high margin, we will have the joker of free cash flow in our hand that will be played out for stock repurchases as soon as company financial needs permits it. its not our interest to have a low stock value, there are just other priorities at the moment. thank you for that amazing no. of thumbs up last time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A blast from the past

    by jacosa May 11, 2015 2:50 AM
    ch47ady ch47ady May 11, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    thank you jacosa for your many splendid contributions. your deep knowledge is amazing. its only a pitty so few follow this board. but that is another good reason to be bullish mygn. once product transition is completed we will trade again at 8 times sales, based on growth and sky high gross margin. we will no longer be single product company but a diversified one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ch47ady by ch47ady May 8, 2015 1:15 PM Flag

    we heard that ovation sales have started. this is a 200 m opportunity. with the big stryker sales organisation in place we can assume that market introduction should be pretty fast. if we take some initial stock building and only 10 % market penetration for q 2 thats 5 m sales. add to that some sales for cartiform and of course
    at least 2 more m grafix sales and we are getting close to 30 m sales level and clearly over 10 c. eps. a hint was given by saying inventory of 12 m was good for 5 month. at a gross margin of 78 % that is good for 55 m in sales or 33 m per quarter, a 50 % higher level than in q 1. after a difficult quarter (they said nothing about the bad weather !) we can be sure now that take off has started.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stealth items from CC

    by jacosa May 7, 2015 2:02 PM
    ch47ady ch47ady May 8, 2015 2:14 AM Flag

    those two items are part of the reasons for my investment into mygn, irrespective of short term stock fluctuations. another being myrisk for opening up a general cancer screening for everybodys risk check.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ch47ady ch47ady May 6, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    as i said a few times, 33 is the floor. even you turn around now. we still disagree with the future. i see it much brighter than you, good luck

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Arthrex - "The next generation in orthobiologics"

    by ozark580 Apr 15, 2015 5:33 PM
    ch47ady ch47ady Apr 17, 2015 1:58 AM Flag

    i agee with you that you find arthrex a very good partner. as mentioned in my last piece it is also an owner run business, but a private one. they very much needed cartiform and therefore the deal got struck very fast.
    nothing mentioned about minimal offtake limits like with stryker. quality wise this should be a top deal. with gigantic stryker we have much more to worry that our product does not get pushed to the sideline as company intern priorities may shift.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • we are very much an owner run business. statistics on comparable enterprises clearly prove those enterprises perform much better by far. following osiris for over two decades there was never any hesitation to make tough decisions when needed. only three years ago our company was completely new invented by going into biosurgical products. careful planning, strict cost control and quickly realizing opportunities are our strengths. creating a close to 100 m sales company in such short time is a big achievment. when we hear about 5 year r&d plan and see in 4q those cost jump big time, then we know ground for further progress is prepared. with so many shares in firm hands it is clear that we suffer from lack of liquidity. institutions shy away from those situations. but be sure, when the crop will be harvested, it will be a bumper one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    One of our major investors...

    by ozark580 Apr 10, 2015 2:48 PM
    ch47ady ch47ady Apr 11, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    we have seen those wide swings on both sides before. i do not think its for a particular reason. any day a large institution may decide to buy a million shares which are not available, or shorts may start to bite the bullet. its a prove that our shares are very well held and no liquidity exist.

  • Reply to

    One of our major investors...

    by ozark580 Apr 10, 2015 2:48 PM
    ch47ady ch47ady Apr 11, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    as all assets are in $ and nav is expressed in $. currency has only an impact as nev is traded in swiss francs in zürich. euro has no impact. $ and swiss franc both appreciated a lot (25 %) against the euro.

  • Reply to

    One of our major investors...

    by ozark580 Apr 10, 2015 2:48 PM
    ch47ady ch47ady Apr 11, 2015 3:37 AM Flag

    nev is trading at about a 50 % discount because there is some dilution coming. we will get 1.5 m more shares from convertible bond at 9.50 and then board got approval from shareholders for an additional 2.5 m share issue. we hope that issue comes only at much higher valuation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    My assessement

    by ozark580 Apr 10, 2015 6:12 PM
    ch47ady ch47ady Apr 11, 2015 3:24 AM Flag

    i was going to post something similar. in the last few days we saw blocks of over 20 k traded. this is usually done when large buyers get their shares crossed from brokers. shorts first tried to move us down because
    there is not much happening until cc. but we know they are running out of time. sellers are no longer willing to give away their shares. we have conservative piper jaffray target of $ 28 ONLY based on grafix sales. with two more huge product lines starting sales, we are clearly very undervalued. more days like yesterday will follow and getting closer to cc will heat things up. we are on the way to more realistic valuation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bright Future

    by ozark580 Apr 7, 2015 11:52 AM
    ch47ady ch47ady Apr 7, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    with gross margin the same and sg&a not increasing in q4, we saw a huge increase of r&d from 1.2m to 3.9 m. this hurt our bottom line full 8 c. we know about 1 m is for grafix bla, but the remaining 1.7 m is not detailed. i guess it is for agressive further development of bio4 and cartiform. any bottom line estimate is very difficult to make.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

OSIR
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