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Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) Message Board

chad_work2001 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 7, 2012 10:54 AM Member since: Jul 26, 2007
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  • Reply to

    I'm still short.....

    by oc3711 Nov 5, 2012 8:27 AM
    chad_work2001 chad_work2001 Nov 7, 2012 10:54 AM Flag

    The current trend and price movements tell us that you made the right choice.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Very smart analysis

    by georgespelvin Nov 6, 2012 10:47 PM
    chad_work2001 chad_work2001 Nov 7, 2012 10:53 AM Flag

    I agree with your conclusion that ATHN may be a good company but a bad stock. I differ on the point about it creating value for its shareholders. It depends upon which ones you're referring to. The insiders who had shares at IPO or who bought below 30 and sold at $90.00? Maybe. The ones who purchased anywhere over $40.00 or are still holding? I don't think so. A Return on Equity of 7.04% says otherwise, unless you meant something else.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    I AM A BULL

    by daddybig639 Nov 5, 2012 9:24 AM
    chad_work2001 chad_work2001 Nov 5, 2012 5:33 PM Flag

    As can be seen in the 3-month chart, until a trend change occurs, the major trend is down. Prices move up and down every trading day no matter what the major trend is.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Mr. Rookie.

    It's good that you won a stock-picking contest once. Good work in that case. That doesn't mean you're correct this time.

    You're telling people it's a bargain at it's all-time high: falling precipitously from $90.00. It is likely heading to its overall low of $22.00. Maybe that would be a better time for you to buy low to sell high. Right now it's high, and it's time to sell.

    There is no need to curse using #$%$. Perhaps you subconsciously realize you are incorrect and are thus frustrated.

    Considering your perspective, are you buying now?

    Why do you care if others oppose your perspective if you are correct?

    If you've been buying recently, it seems stupid, since the price keeps going down.

    I have no doubt that it will turn and go the other way with positive temporary emotional market news and more QE3 injections. But the mark of this stock will be seen by how it reacts to times such as we had 5 years ago when the market was in a two-year downtrend. McDonald's stock price didn't blink back then. Let's see how your ATHN holds up under those conditions.

    As we can see, during the two-year downtrend in the market, ATHN's price went down for a shorter period, but went down to $22.00 April 2008 and was again at that price two years later in July 2010. Reminds me of how GOOG was around $750.00 5 years ago and was just that again 5 years later, and now it's falling, returning now value to the stock gambler, wasting 5 years of hope. See dividend paying stocks are good because the shareholder gets paid while he is waiting on his loan to return more value.

    Perhaps we are arguing over timing. You see ATHN's price increasing in the FUTURE and think people should buy NOW, whereas I correctly see it falling NOW and think people should waiting for the FUTURE to buy and should sell NOW.

    Right now it's falling and one doesn't buy long when the stock is falling. That is not intelligent. If you really believed what you are telling others, you wouldn't mind if the price moved lower, then this stock you believe so strongly in would be cheaper to you and then you could ride it up to the stratosphere again.

    Ignorant stock gamblers only know how to buy low and sell high. They waste their time waiting for the price to reach it's low and turn around. No need to wait. Make money when it's falling, make money when it's rising.

    Is it true what Georgespelvin said, that you own more stocks of this company than the CEO? Or was he being facetious?

    If you look at the market in general many stocks are having downward price movements that look like ATHN's. It's not wise to buy when the price keeps dropping.

    The P/E is too high. Too high. Your comment didn't add any value.

    Return on Equity is the measure of how efficiently shareholder money is being invested to produce profits. I said it was being done at a dirt-poor level, and your response was "so what?". Self-explanatory.

    When I stated that the price has peaked, you said "so what". The price peaking is to say that it is now in a downtrend. You're telling people to buy in a downtrend despite the truth I have spoken about why it is not wise to do so, which is common-sense to almost everyone. And yet you persist. Illogical.

    Your advice is dangerous. I hope you are the only one to follow it. Why don't you follow your own advice and buy when others are selling? I'll sell, and you buy them from me.

    So it's wise to "buy when everyone is selling" is it? For example, take a look at MSTR in March of the year 2000. When one of the biggest sell-offs in the history of the stock market was happening with that stock. If you had been buying from the top on down, you'd still be a loser today.

    Your advice is dangerous.

    No, it isn't wise to buy when everyone is selling. It is wise to buy when there is value and no one else wants to, when insiders slowly consolidate their holdings and there is no hot speculation, such as with (WLT) between 1996 - 2005.

    I do not know what your agenda is passing out dangerous advice, but I do not detect a loving concern in it for your fellow man.

    Bottom line: We'll see who is correct.

    Record since August 2012:

    Chad_Work2001 = 1
    Rookie.Stock = 0

    So far, I and all the other people who know not to buy in a down-trending price movement are. Let us see how long it lasts.

    What? We should buy now with you? Okay, and then hold to when? Where's it going? What's your plan?

    Give perspective to backup your opinion. It's good to see that you have more since I wrote that. Comments in general people make like "Strong buy" or "Strong sell" without anything else are useless.

  • Reply to

    Bulls Are Bait

    by chad_work2001 Nov 3, 2012 9:26 AM
    chad_work2001 chad_work2001 Nov 3, 2012 9:37 AM Flag

    Oh, I forgot to add:

    - Earnings are weak

    - No dividends paid. Let me ask you: Would you loan money to someone without getting paid interest or have collateral? Banks don't do it. If you wouldn't loan me money without a guarantee of payment in the future why would you loan ATHN money by buying their stock, without them paying you a dividend? Why would you simply "hope" their price will be higher in the future than you bought it in the past? That's referred to as "gambling".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chad_work2001 by chad_work2001 Nov 3, 2012 9:26 AM Flag

    Any comment posted on this message board that is without support for the perspective, should be ignored.

    Here is my support for a Strong Sell:

    - Insiders selling like rats escaping a sinking ship,

    - P/E should be 10, but it's 125!

    - Return on Equity dirt-poor,

    - Sell signals on October 8th,

    - Price gap between Oct 18th and 19th indicating an avalanche downward,

    - Price peaked on August 6th 2012 and has been in a down-trend since.

    - Downtrends indicate one should be short not long. The trend is your friend: When the market goes up, one should trade long, when the market goes down one should be short,

    - These people posting Bull statements have no facts to backup their stupid opinions. They are trying to bait ignorant people.

    - non-Generally-Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) methods are typically used to "make the numbers look better". Let me translate that for you: to lie to you, to stretch the truth, etc.,

    - There is no company-provided news reflecting what can be seen by looking at the price, indicating a hiding of truth.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Question on Div

    by hairfarm Mar 18, 2008 4:50 PM
    chad_work2001 chad_work2001 Mar 28, 2008 9:28 PM Flag

    Yes but you should hold it for more than 61 days for it to be qualified at the 15% tax rate.

  • chad_work2001 by chad_work2001 Jul 26, 2007 2:05 PM Flag
  • If you believe that this is a good company to invest in, based on research and not baseless faith/hope, then this drop is a buying opportunity you should love.

    About 95% of all "investors" (Wallstreet's sheeple) react to stupid news and will react with emotion. So if this is a reaction to stupid news and emotion - an overreaction - what's the problem?

    Either this is a good company and this is a baseless emotional reaction, and this is a buying opportunity, or BAM is overvalued and coming back to reality in price, and fear of this drop is a sign that perhaps you bought at the wrong price or don't really know anything about this company. Not saying anyone specific has, but I think anyone who buys based on what "Jim Cramer says" and that's it, isn't an investor, but a gambler.

    BAM's stability of earnings growth for the past 6 years is not that good - about 30% stable. If it were 100% stable, that would mean it grows consistently every year by the same amount giving you good predictability of future earnings. Stability of sales growth is only about 56%.

    I think BAM should return about 24% per year over the next 5 years with dividends re-invested, using a conservative P/E at the end of that time of 15 and a conservative annual growth rate of 34% which they've had over the last thee years. If you think those numbers for the future 5 years are too low, then perhaps you think the return will be higher than what I think.

    The stock splits they've had over the last 5 years really were nice for early investors. Perhaps that will continue as well. Perhaps not.

    If you look at the stock chart over the last 5 years, with the stock splits, it's amazing - a nice, nearly 45 degree uphill climb. But that is a picture of the past.

    The real estate bubble built from the money from the stock market bubble deflation is now deflating itself. Now we'll see how well BAM does. If they do well in tough times, perhaps they have good management. Perhaps all of the mindless valuations of the real estate market - the bubble - weren't a part of BAM's business practices as well, and they'll do just fine. I'd personally like to see them increase the stability of their earnings and sales growth.

    The only thing that matters when you boil everything down is how much money will they make with your money you lent them, for which they pay you 1.3% in dividends? That's what all the figures and news are supposed to tell you.

ATHN
149.19-0.53(-0.35%)Dec 26 4:00 PMEST

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