Now . Why would anyone give me thumb down on this Ukraine peace talk news ? You want more war more death because you are short RSX ? You are a sic person.
Sigh. Another casualty. But where can you put your money. Interest rate so low, gov't debt and deficit so large. is why I'm in the market. Can't keep it in cash.
I hope today is bottom reversal day. I see a quick bounce to $16 if market sense oil bottomed. Or a Ukraine solution is signed. My gut feeling both are at hand.
I'm not buying more unless RSX drop to $12. Own too much RSX now.
RSX traded as low as 12,5 premarket. Recovered to 13.2.
Washington is waging economy war on Russia. How low , how long can Saudi keep oil price down ?
Not very long. Their petro dollar is all invested in money center banks, stocks , bonds ,real estate. They can not sell them without creating financial crises around the globe.
Down 22% now. Russian companies have intrinsic value. Micex is up. Market does not believe they deserve 22% shave. Another day of pain for me. My gold is up this morning so the pain will be less than yesterday.
Gold is up 100% in Ruble term.
Your gold has risen 100% in Ruble term in one year. Just a reminder.
The American dollar has lost 98 % buying power in the last 100 years. This happened without a war on her soil. Rest of the world not so lucky. Many countries fiat money come and gone multiple times Gold is forever.
I'm buying $14.38. Downside momentum in oil seem to be waning. Micex index and Ruble combined for 10% intra day loss. This last plunge correlates to American market plunge. Think American stock plunge is actually dragging Russian market lower.
Six years ago oil was $60. Ruble was twice valuable than today. Russian economy was fine. I think Russia will be fine this round too. Russian gov't ran budget and trade surplus for years. They 've built up surplus . They might even outlast Washington and Riyad.
to shut down all US shale drilling program. We will lose 800k barrels a year starting in 2015 as old wells dry up. It takes only 3 month to drill a shale well. So the change will be quick. North Sea is depleted, Falling offf 8% a year. Iran , Venezuela , Russia saw no new investment so their production going down too.
Wait 6 month we will be back to $90.
US shale well permit dropped 40% after oil dropped below $80. Now that is under $60 projections are US oil production will turn from 800k barrel increase to 800k barrel decrease as shale wells dry up and no new wells added. They are drilling shale wells at 3 month a piece. So the change will come quickly.
All the world's oil fields are depleting. even Saudi fields. North Sea falling by 8% annum. We will see $100 + oil within two years. Ruble trades with oil . RSX will be back. Just sit tight.
Zerohedge article. They know something . Something will drive gold drastically up or down that much in 5 minutes. Maybe they expect war ? Or major paper default ?
Since I don't believe anyone have enough gold to sell down $400. It could only be up.
Another sign US$ may have topped. Chinese RMB Yuan has fallen this month against the dollar. It had risen gradually for 3 years. World's strongest currency. Now their export is hurting Having risen 20 to 40 % against world currencies. They are bringing it down. Cheaper Chinese import will cringe US jobs. This will drag US$ down. We know Yen and Euro are having their own problems. What currency is left that is safe ???? We all know the answer.
My hunch is this.. They sign a cease fire , at least good through winter. Euro will rally as well as Euro area stock. $ will correct , drop. Capital will flow out of US into Europe. US stock are high. International hot money will ring the US cash register. Buy European stock.
Gold should do alright in a falling $ enviroment. Especially if Oil rallies when deal is reached to end economic sanctions , end pressures on Russia.
What is there is no deal. All hell break loose. Big military budget around the world. Blowing budget deficit and debt. Euro region PIIGS crises come back. Full economic crises . Stock revisit 2009 low. Gold goes up.
My conclusion is either way gold has nowhere to go but UP.
Ukrina swan song in the works. This could turn Euro up. Oil with it. Hopefully gold too.
Its beginning to drag world economy down so pressure is mounting for a deal. Western Europe needs it. Fingers crossed. Buy Russia RSX today.