There's no doubt that the whole market has pulled back on a possible Tuesday taper by the fed and it will continue on Monday for sure, but let me ask you this, do you really think the fed will add to the wobbliness of the market a week before Christmas?? A taper now would mean tightening of wallets nationwide and bring down retail sales which will effect the economy in a negative way short term, just at the time it least needs it. Do you really think the brilliant minds at the fed don't know that the timing of a taper for late December would really SUCK?
Do you think they will do this or don't you? Personally, I think it would be stupid and won't happen. What do you think?
No, he doesn't SEE, he says the possibility STILL exists - just like it did in 2013.
Fama indexes all his investments and believes that the market is efficient, so he's not saying he's bailing on stocks and bonds.
What he's saying is that "there MAY come a point where the financial markets say none of their debt is credible anymore and they can't finance themselves," which means they may NOT.
"IF there is another recession" Well IF you believe that there WILL be another global recession, you need to liquidate all your holdings and wait until it hits and buy low. Of course, IF there's NOT another one, you'll be out of the market, which, as Fama notes, is efficient. You may be waiting for years for a global recession that never comes, while inflation eats away at your cash.
What to do? If you believe that Fama's warning is gospel and that his investing strategy is sound, then index all your holdings and get the total market return, reinvesting the dividends, which will allow an accumulation of more shares at the cheaper recessionary price; like Fama.
Fidelity Large Cap Stock Fund?? I found this to be curious, so I looked it up. Sure enough, under the Developed Markets portion, which is only 9.2% of the fund, there's our small cap CRME.
Cardiome Pharma Corp. Market value = $348,376 Percentage of assets = 0.018% - As of 9/30/13 -
It's not unusual for a large cap fund to contain mid and small caps, but it's nice that some big fund managers are taking notice of our little pharma play. Crank up the cheerleaders; rah, rah, rah......
It could be about losing profits. Selling after a run up always sounds good at the time, but you could be selling right before a 20% new run up. Then you would have to wait and perfectly time the market bottom to get back in, which is very hard to do and involves nothing but luck. In the mean time you pay capital gains taxes, trading costs, and miss out on the div and possibly solid take over news, which will run the stock up before you even hear about it. Where if you simply held, you'd come out further ahead than if you sold and waited for a pull back. Just my opinion, but it's based on decades of trading and buying and holding. My buy and holds have beaten my trades by far over the long term.
It makes you feel good to make 100%, until another year goes by and you see you could have made 200% by simply doing nothing.
No one can really give you any solid advice unless they know your total portfolio. If you have more than 10% of your total assets in any one stock, I think trimming it, by selling some, and then diversifying further is a good idea.
I bought this a year and a half ago, thinking I would hold for about a month and get a pop, but it didn't happen and I was down about 40% for awhile. Now up over 110% I'm willing to hold for another year and a half to see how all these trials pan out and it's looking good - better than it did in mid 2012. With patience, sometimes you just get lucky. Congrats to all those with the virtue of patience.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Apparently you've never seen WB give an interview. You won't be able to find a single interview where he doesn't laugh at ridiculous questions and stupid statements.
Maybe you're thinking of the Wicked Spoon Buffet, where everybody is laughing and buying. Or crying and buying.
There is absolutely no correlation between laughing and buying. If that were true, we'd be living in a much happier society. It was just a response to an interview question about short term price fluctuations.
In a recent interview, Charlie Rose asked Warren about IBM and Warren laughed and said, "IBM is going to make more money than it ever has".
“They will have a record per-share earnings this year", “That can be disappointing if you expected more. But it is not a bad record, believe me.”
“Every company, including Berkshire,” faces tough periods, Buffett told Rose. “We’ve had a fair number of blips over time.”
Buffett wrote last year in a letter to shareholders that long-term investors like Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire should cheer for IBM shares to languish in the short term. A lower price means IBM can repurchase more of its stock, increasing Berkshire’s ownership stake in the company.
Investors comforted by short-term share increases “resemble a commuter who rejoices after the price of gas increases, simply because his tank contains a day’s supply"
Those stocks don't ever seem to go lower, until they do. High flyers can come down a lot faster than they go up. Things happen; they miss earnings, they lose patent lawsuits, the Fed can regulate them so they can't do business the way they want, two other larger companies can come together and do what they do better and cheaper, it can be found out that they are misrepresenting their earnings, etc, etc. Or maybe two or more of these things can happen at once. Suddenly your down 50%, then the economy takes an unexpected downturn and your down another 25%. Financial news programs are considered noise by professional investors, they are paid for by brokerages who advertise to get you to trade, trade, trade. They are investment porn.
To get some serious answers from those who have been there and done that, go to bogleheads dot org and ask your question. Read the Wiki on that site and go to the recommended reading page and read a few books. There you will find irrefutable proof.
The best, most profitable, long term investment you can make right now is in an education - DON'T BLOW IT!!!
For CCE, HON, ED, VZ, VOD, CVS, BA and many other smaller positions as well as rebounding bonds and REITs today, because if I relied on Big Blue Balls, I wouldn't be up today.
Two years of gains wiped out this year = BAD. Up 28 out of 30 years with IBM, but still this year has been a bummer.
Stay the course and diversify so you won't get hurt when one stock makes poop.
Aw shucks; are you saying he CAN'T predict the future?? That he's DOESN'T have insider information? Dang!! But it DOES seem that it is the "Same story....", the story of ned_digger.
I'll wait for the comic book version....
Oh, this is it.
Yes, the worldwide market place is opening up for CRME, now if the US government would just open up so the FDA could get back to work and approve some drugs, we'll be up another 100%.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Don't forget Asia, lots of countries in the process of screening trials past Phase 3.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Just imagine if you got in at the time you made that silly post. 25% profit in 5 hrs.