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chance_pocketwatch 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 18, 2014 7:28 PM Member since: Apr 11, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Bought Another Spec Today

    by chance_pocketwatch Jul 17, 2014 6:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Jul 18, 2014 7:28 PM Flag

    Well, good luck with your short. I hope that if you're successful with your short, my small caps will be the outliers ;-) I initiated a very small position in a small cap blend index fund the same day I bought FSC, the first week of January, and I'm barely in the black now after a wild ride. I'm so heavy in large caps, I felt it was prudent to tilt a bit.

  • Reply to

    Bought Another Spec Today

    by chance_pocketwatch Jul 17, 2014 6:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Jul 18, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    Wise words on Portugal Telecom. Now and for the foreseeable future, it's just plain ugly.
    I hope you're wrong about the small caps though. I don't see a drop in the magnitude of anything in the realm of say 10%, unless the whole market tanks, which is always a distinct possibility. Like I say, I know nothing, I can't even wrap my head around why the market is rebounding before a weekend while the geo political landscape is in such turmoil. Good earnings and a numbness to bad news, I guess. ?

  • Reply to

    Bought Another Spec Today

    by chance_pocketwatch Jul 17, 2014 6:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Jul 18, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    I agree, here too. Using my funky calculations, I think another 3-4% downside might max out the bottom for the year - hopefully not that much, but a shift from the large caps to the smalls seems eminent later in the year. I confess to knowing nothing though ;-)

  • Reply to

    Bought Another Spec Today

    by chance_pocketwatch Jul 17, 2014 6:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Jul 18, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    Thanks, that pretty much sums up how I feel too. Using the parameters I use for screening, I’m finding it pretty difficult to find deals these days in something I feel comfortable with. Heck, for a few seconds I was even considering making a bet on Portugal Telecom - still watching.
    Anyway, it looks like I might get a first day bump on this bet, since the sector is up so far today, which might be good for a few minutes of self verifying warm fuzziness. Maybe.

  • chance_pocketwatch by chance_pocketwatch Jul 17, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    My opinion is that small caps are close to a near term bottom, so I made a bet today on HIMX, a real gamble on their possible future with Google. Got in at 5.75, with a 1 year wait and see time frame. I didn't buy it for the yield, but if they can keep their div it would be about 4.7% at 5.75. The fundamentals seem decent.
    I'd love to see it at 11 or 12, by this time next year - if news is positive.
    Anybody follow this company? Thoughts?

  • chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Jun 28, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    paulstutz -Thanks for the commiseration. I had a tight bond with this particular animal, that I won’t have again.
    I spent the first four years of her life following her around at night until she was trained to come inside at night, for one example. Being outside was not her problem.
    The amount spent just got out of hand, like doubling down on a losing investment. The first four days cost $1200, then a few hundred here and there, then the specialist for $1700, etc, etc. I really thought I could save her. I should mention that this was over a period of six months, which ended with me force feeding her, until she wouldn’t even accept that.
    A new pet will be in my future, but not for a while.

    Sorry, I missed the thumbs up and hit down by accident. MY thumbs are still trying for accuracy on the iPad.

  • chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Jun 25, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    It depends on your age and how much you need to live each year; plus inflation, taxes, location, health, etc.

    Tools like firecalc (dot) com can give you probabilities, but nobody knows what might happen in the future. A forty five year old woman with a million and annual needs of 15k should make it to 95 and still have money. If she needs 50k per year, she probably won't make it.

    Over the past 3 years I've been extremely diligent to rebalance my portfolio in an effort to have the dividends and fixed income pay my yearly expenses, including clothes, eating out and a few small vanities. This is the first year that I will meet that goal 100% and still be able to hold 20% cash, which I call crash insurance - money to live on if the divs dry up or invest during or after a crash. Of course there's always the unexpected; like I spent 6k this year in a vain effort to save my cat. (That got balanced out by a 5k inheritance)

    I figure at least 200k needs to be set aside for the last few years of my life, for assisted living, so IF I can keep my portfolio intact and live off the divs, I have confidence that someone will inherit something from me.

    I also plan on moving to a cheaper location in the next few years and pocketing some extra change. Every bit of frugality helps, but don't be frugal to the point of an unhappy existence. Work, save and invest longer, if you have to.

    My two pennies....

  • chance_pocketwatch by chance_pocketwatch Jun 20, 2014 10:32 PM Flag

    I don't expect this to continue to climb for the rest of the year, though the numbers on paper, I confess, make me feel good. I hate this stock and my broker recommended I trim my holdings by 75% 3 years ago, but I fired him instead. I hate what oil and the business of oil is doing to our health, but I've been in this via a Mobile Oil DRIP since the seventies and now that I'm no longer reinvesting the dividends, it pays a good portion of my yearly bills.
    Of course world turmoil has always been about oil and we get this knee jerk reaction every time the oil companies look like they will be able to profit from it.
    So while I'm hating what oil is doing, I'm addicted to the payouts the companies provide.
    It's tough, I'm truly addicted to oil!
    I thought by now we would see XOM go after the green energy business, by creating it's own green energy business, which it is doing, but on way too small a scale. It's baffling to me, but financially speaking, I'm glad I didn't listen to my ex broker, because I've always been a buy and hold forever investor and at this point capital gains taxes would hurt.
    So I hope that I will be dead and making future crude in the ground, when the planet stops burning this #$%$.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Any BDC's Loan Short Money?

    by chance_pocketwatch May 13, 2014 10:34 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch May 14, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    Thanks. I really know nothing about what goes on in the world of p2p, only what I've done personally - which is all I care to know. Looking at some of these sites and having to enter information to get a response is something I'll pass on, but will pass it onto my friend to see how he'll make out.
    Thanks,

  • Reply to

    Any BDC's Loan Short Money?

    by chance_pocketwatch May 13, 2014 10:34 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch May 14, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    You're preaching to the choir, brother, I am the private lender, but I feel bad that my rate is 15% for a two year loan and thought my friend might be able to do better. We've done this before in the past and it's a no brainer for me, but I'm just trying to help out his bottom line.
    What are the averages on a secured business loan by private lenders these days? Can he do better?
    Thanks,

  • chance_pocketwatch by chance_pocketwatch May 13, 2014 10:34 PM Flag

    Say 100k or less for two years? It's for a 30 year old business that needs an additional location due to exploding business.
    Thanks,

    Btw, back to even on FSC from Jan. in point - fun ride.

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