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chance_pocketwatch 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 5, 2014 7:56 PM Member since: Apr 11, 2012
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  • chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Oct 5, 2014 7:56 PM Flag

    Here's the way I'm going to play this. Dentistry will get more competitive, discounts will get deeper and I'll have a chance to invest in some dental work that I've been putting off for years ;-)

  • chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Oct 5, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    I initiated a position in Seadrill last week @26 then @24.25, so that's my answer. It could have been RIG, but I basically gambled that the divvy would be paid for four quarters. All theses companies could slash their div if earnings get really thin, so why not start high??
    Coin toss between the two and the article doesn't change how I feel. 50% of my allocation for this has been invested, with two more increments of 25% to be determined. The big question, of course, is how frickin' low can they go? Long term, demand should rise again, so we should be ok.
    I believe the single biggest factor for the decline of oil and gold is China. Sure Russia and the Middle East too, but China uses a lot of oil and buys a lot of gold.

  • Due to the recent discussions here I thought this might be interesting to some. It compares some driller stocks.

    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/10/05/a-financial-ratio-analysis-of-transocean-ltd-stock.aspx

  • chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Oct 3, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    Interesting guys, I'll look into it. If I'm going to start a position in gold, I definitely want a div. Gold is on the move and will probably go south a bit more. In the meantime my 24.25 SDRL buy got executed and I'm back to even on FSC. And the world keeps turning......

  • chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Oct 3, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    I'm looking to establish a position in gold soon, preferably something with a div. AUY fits this bill, any others I should consider? I was going to just go with a gold mining etf, but may want some more risk. Mmmmm, risk, ...... with a side of anticipation.

  • Reply to

    NO RIG, BUT CLOSE

    by chance_pocketwatch Oct 1, 2014 7:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Oct 3, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    Wow, 26% div on AWLCF. Just as good a bet IMO , I guess we'll see how safe these divs are.
    Will the driller with the last dividend please turn off the lights.

  • Reply to

    NO RIG, BUT CLOSE

    by chance_pocketwatch Oct 1, 2014 7:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Oct 2, 2014 6:27 PM Flag

    Well, if I wanted to defend a possibly indefensible position, I could call it a sector bet too. Historically, when a sector has been beaten down more than the others, it has a higher "expected" return in the future. So, I guess that makes me an expecting daddy, I just hope the gestation period isn't much longer than a humans.

  • Reply to

    NO RIG, BUT CLOSE

    by chance_pocketwatch Oct 1, 2014 7:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Oct 2, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    Like is a strong word ;-) Desperate to make a bet on something oversold and in the middle of geo political turmoil, is a better description. Not my usual well researched investment to be sure.
    Just a bet that oil and the whole Russia situation will come around and if it doesn't, well I hope it won't get beat up much more and still pays it's div. Now where's my dice?
    Placed an order for 24.25 - not filled yet.

  • Reply to

    NO RIG, BUT CLOSE

    by chance_pocketwatch Oct 1, 2014 7:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Oct 2, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    That's probably a good strategy. This is as much a geo political bet as it is an oil bet. I cancelled my 25 order when I saw oil go under 90, but will try to catch it at 24, then follow it down to 22 if necessary, then I'll be done.
    I may double down on my small cap ETF that I bought in Jan. Who knows? Thanks to my bonds and utilities, I'm not suffering too much.

  • Reply to

    NO RIG, BUT CLOSE

    by chance_pocketwatch Oct 1, 2014 7:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Oct 2, 2014 12:33 AM Flag

    Sounds like a plan! 2916, I'd say your golden..... as long as they have converted to solar by then ;-) The sale should be over in a week or two? Or else I've got a big hole to climb out of. Still buying.

  • chance_pocketwatch by chance_pocketwatch Oct 1, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    After the RIG discussion here I looked around and initiated a position in SDRL today, with 25% of my total allotment for this sector, @26. I've got another order in for 25 now. They have cash, so I'm assuming the div (over15%) will be good for at least a year. Of course you know what they say about assuming ;-)
    GLTA

  • Reply to

    RIG is dirt CHEAP

    by thewisejman Sep 24, 2014 12:04 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Sep 26, 2014 9:04 PM Flag

    Did you see my quasi buy signal yesterday? Even if this is a bounce, I think you're out of the woods on this one.

  • Reply to

    RIG is dirt CHEAP

    by thewisejman Sep 24, 2014 12:04 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Sep 24, 2014 8:32 PM Flag

    I've been keeping an eye on this since you mentioned it. My thoughts.
    Bellweather XOM has corrected over 10%, ISIS oil facility just bombed, RIG seems to have lots of cash to pay the div for a good while, so I think that's safe.
    I think the downward momentum is pretty strong right now, so it may have further to drop and then meander for a while before reversing course. That goes for the whole industry.
    Not in yet, but I'm getting close. I would feel safe buying here, but I'm notorious for missing out because I try to squeeze an extra percentage out of the downside. (That's a buy signal right there - lol)
    @30 Yield = 10% and that round number will attract a flood of buyers, so I'd want to get in before that. OXY had a nice bump today, but that was on an analyst report. Oil has to rebound, not go under 90!
    Enough rambling,

  • Reply to

    BABA

    by mkanxs57 Sep 18, 2014 7:07 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Sep 19, 2014 9:45 PM Flag

    When I was with Morgan Stanley, I always got in every IPO I wanted, they get first tier shares.
    Fidelity - never for a big one. I keep trying anyway.

  • Reply to

    Holding AVNR....up 62%..

    by keltus1952 Sep 15, 2014 10:22 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Sep 15, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    Nice one, congrats.

  • Reply to

    The QUIET before the storm?

    by thewisejman Aug 27, 2014 11:08 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 27, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    I'm in this camp too, cash 21% - a real drag on income during a bull market. Mr. Cook is in the majority, but then we have Jeremy Siegel whispering yesterday about Dow possibly 18-19k. Cook talks about things coming out of left field to be the catalyst for a drop. How many things have come out of left field this year that the market just shrugged off? Many! My belief is that the majority of investors - or should I say market timers, are looking at that hard number, interest rates, and when it will rise. In anticipation of that, we'll see the market start to sell off, then when it happens (I predict a quarter of a percent) the market will over react, as it always does, and we'll see a correction and an opportunity to buy low and for the shorts to make money. Then it will be back to earnings, employment and all the other quarterly numbers that move the market. A 10% correction would be a healthy thing for the market. 20%, not so much, but I don't see it.

  • Reply to

    Financial Services Majo r(OT)

    by frigator Aug 23, 2014 8:55 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 25, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    There's lots to like about SoCal and one place I'm considering is around the Carlsbad area - where I also have friends, because it's slower, cleaner etc, than LA, and I would be closer to sea breezes that help make July - September more bearable, temperature wise.
    But there would be absolutely no financial benefit - and maybe no water either.
    In my town, they have voted steady water rate increases for the next 4 years, at 4%, 4%, 4% and 5%. And that was before the drought. Yikes!

  • Reply to

    Financial Services Majo r(OT)

    by frigator Aug 23, 2014 8:55 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 25, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    I think you miss addressed your post jman, Chance ain't got no daughters.

  • Reply to

    Financial Services Majo r(OT)

    by frigator Aug 23, 2014 8:55 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 25, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    Very nice areas, Wilmington too, frigator. NC has a lot of beauty to it and I'm learning that a lot of old friends and classmates from my past are in and around Asheville - people that I like too. It would be nice to ditch the earthquake insurance and not have water rationed as well.

  • Reply to

    RIG is a great buy

    by thewisejman Aug 22, 2014 11:30 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 23, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    I started out as a buy and hold forever investor, but I was trading when I was in and out of Apple. I alway made money, but nothing compared to holding it. I still have the first 5 stocks I ever bought in the 60's. Allied Signal - now Honeywell, AEP, Mobile - now XOM, MRK and KO.
    I was taught, no forced by my mother, to buy one drip in each sector in the S&P, then diversify within each sector. I finally gave up when I had two in each sector and those 20 stocks are the core of my portfolio today. Too bad I let years go by without contributing every quarter, I'd probably have a higher number up front. And LUCK played a big part in any success, since every one is a mainstay of the S&P today. I could have just as easily bought Enron, Polaroid, Eastern Airlines, RCA, Montgomery Ward, Pan AM and DeLorean Motor Co..
    Ouch, that made me cringe.

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