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chance_pocketwatch 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2014 1:05 PM Member since: Apr 11, 2012
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  • Reply to

    The QUIET before the storm?

    by thewisejman Aug 27, 2014 11:08 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 27, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    I'm in this camp too, cash 21% - a real drag on income during a bull market. Mr. Cook is in the majority, but then we have Jeremy Siegel whispering yesterday about Dow possibly 18-19k. Cook talks about things coming out of left field to be the catalyst for a drop. How many things have come out of left field this year that the market just shrugged off? Many! My belief is that the majority of investors - or should I say market timers, are looking at that hard number, interest rates, and when it will rise. In anticipation of that, we'll see the market start to sell off, then when it happens (I predict a quarter of a percent) the market will over react, as it always does, and we'll see a correction and an opportunity to buy low and for the shorts to make money. Then it will be back to earnings, employment and all the other quarterly numbers that move the market. A 10% correction would be a healthy thing for the market. 20%, not so much, but I don't see it.

  • Reply to

    Financial Services Majo r(OT)

    by frigator Aug 23, 2014 8:55 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 25, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    There's lots to like about SoCal and one place I'm considering is around the Carlsbad area - where I also have friends, because it's slower, cleaner etc, than LA, and I would be closer to sea breezes that help make July - September more bearable, temperature wise.
    But there would be absolutely no financial benefit - and maybe no water either.
    In my town, they have voted steady water rate increases for the next 4 years, at 4%, 4%, 4% and 5%. And that was before the drought. Yikes!

  • Reply to

    Financial Services Majo r(OT)

    by frigator Aug 23, 2014 8:55 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 25, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    I think you miss addressed your post jman, Chance ain't got no daughters.

  • Reply to

    Financial Services Majo r(OT)

    by frigator Aug 23, 2014 8:55 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 25, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    Very nice areas, Wilmington too, frigator. NC has a lot of beauty to it and I'm learning that a lot of old friends and classmates from my past are in and around Asheville - people that I like too. It would be nice to ditch the earthquake insurance and not have water rationed as well.

  • Reply to

    RIG is a great buy

    by thewisejman Aug 22, 2014 11:30 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 23, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    I started out as a buy and hold forever investor, but I was trading when I was in and out of Apple. I alway made money, but nothing compared to holding it. I still have the first 5 stocks I ever bought in the 60's. Allied Signal - now Honeywell, AEP, Mobile - now XOM, MRK and KO.
    I was taught, no forced by my mother, to buy one drip in each sector in the S&P, then diversify within each sector. I finally gave up when I had two in each sector and those 20 stocks are the core of my portfolio today. Too bad I let years go by without contributing every quarter, I'd probably have a higher number up front. And LUCK played a big part in any success, since every one is a mainstay of the S&P today. I could have just as easily bought Enron, Polaroid, Eastern Airlines, RCA, Montgomery Ward, Pan AM and DeLorean Motor Co..
    Ouch, that made me cringe.

  • Reply to

    Financial Services Majo r(OT)

    by frigator Aug 23, 2014 8:55 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 23, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    Thanks, I hadn't even considered auto and home insurance. Taxes in CA are ridiculous. My expenses would be effectively cut in half and I could buy twice the house for a little more than half, depending on the area. I plan to visit my cousin soon, so I can take a look. I used to go to Cape Hatteras to surf in the fall, when I lived in Boston. Living in a place like Asheville will be the first time I haven't lived by an ocean and that will be tough for me.

  • Reply to

    Financial Services Majo r(OT)

    by frigator Aug 23, 2014 8:55 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 23, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    Since this is OT, can I ask you where you live in NC? I grew up in Miami, went to FSU, then moved to Boston for 20 years and now in LA for 20 years. I'm looking for a place to reduce my expenses in retirement and have a cousin in Asheville, which sounds like a nice place. I also have a childhood friend who lives in Charlotte. When I check out the home prices and Google earth the landscape, I'm very impressed and I would have a good chunk of cash left over in a house swap. Southern California is drying up, it's a desert after all, and it's getting dirtier and noisier. What do you like/hate about NC?
    Thanks,

  • Reply to

    RIG is a great buy

    by thewisejman Aug 22, 2014 11:30 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 23, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    You missed that I purchased it in '83. It's quietly outperformed just about every index for at least the past 10 years,
    I bought 100 shares for 387.50 - total cost 487.50 - remember the days when brokers charged $100 a trade? It's split once since purchasing.
    It's a very well managed and diversified (in what they do) company. Moving oil on water and everything that goes into it. That big pipeline that's supposed to go through our country, but hasn't yet, and the crashing of oil trains has helped KEX recently.
    Of course one big oil spill by this companies barges and it will dip. Also KEX took a hit when the Mississippi river was drying up and the barges couldn't deliver.
    As for the future, I have no idea. The p/e is a bit high now, so I don't think now is a time to get in, but I haven't done any homework on this for a long time, it's just something that someone will inherit someday or maybe they will declare a div and I can get something back without paying taxes on LT cap gains.

  • Reply to

    RIG is a great buy

    by thewisejman Aug 22, 2014 11:30 AM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 22, 2014 8:58 PM Flag

    At least a small part of the reason for oil tanking, is that ISIS is selling the oil they stole for $26 a barrel to middle men who are turning it over for $50+ a barrel. Small, but psychological on the industry. I'll keep an eye on this RIG, because I sold some NS to buy FSC, because I didn't' think NS could keep paying their div - I was wrong - so far. I have other oil stock, but this is a little different.
    Let me just mention what my best performing stock of the last 5 years is. Maybe decades, I'd have to check. It's a company that moves oil, mostly domestically, on the water. It's my ONLY position that pays no div. Bought in '83 on a broker recommendation - remember those lol. Drum roll ... KEX - Kirby Corporation.
    I never hear ANYBODY talk about it, but, not including divs, it's out performed everything in my portfolio for at least 5 years. Maybe including divs too, but I'm not doing the math.
    Obviously not a "sexy" stock, but dang I wish I had bought more at 3.87.
    Sorry for the OT.

  • Reply to

    Bought Another Spec Today

    by chance_pocketwatch Jul 17, 2014 6:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 22, 2014 6:42 PM Flag

    Thanks guys. As with many specs, this could get hired or acquired by one of the big boys - or not. Since it only represents 1% of my portfolio, I'll probably hang on for the ride. At least it's a bright spot in my otherwise dull portfolio today.
    Time to do some more exhaustive work to try too find another deal.
    Have a great weekend!

  • Reply to

    Bought Another Spec Today

    by chance_pocketwatch Jul 17, 2014 6:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Aug 22, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    Patting myself on the back today; this turned into a good bet so far, up 45% in a little more than a month. Thinking about taking profit, but will probably let it ride to my 1 year timeline. That's the only way to collect the div, which only gets paid annually. Did anyone else try this?

  • Reply to

    Bought Another Spec Today

    by chance_pocketwatch Jul 17, 2014 6:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Jul 18, 2014 7:28 PM Flag

    Well, good luck with your short. I hope that if you're successful with your short, my small caps will be the outliers ;-) I initiated a very small position in a small cap blend index fund the same day I bought FSC, the first week of January, and I'm barely in the black now after a wild ride. I'm so heavy in large caps, I felt it was prudent to tilt a bit.

  • Reply to

    Bought Another Spec Today

    by chance_pocketwatch Jul 17, 2014 6:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Jul 18, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    Wise words on Portugal Telecom. Now and for the foreseeable future, it's just plain ugly.
    I hope you're wrong about the small caps though. I don't see a drop in the magnitude of anything in the realm of say 10%, unless the whole market tanks, which is always a distinct possibility. Like I say, I know nothing, I can't even wrap my head around why the market is rebounding before a weekend while the geo political landscape is in such turmoil. Good earnings and a numbness to bad news, I guess. ?

  • Reply to

    Bought Another Spec Today

    by chance_pocketwatch Jul 17, 2014 6:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Jul 18, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    I agree, here too. Using my funky calculations, I think another 3-4% downside might max out the bottom for the year - hopefully not that much, but a shift from the large caps to the smalls seems eminent later in the year. I confess to knowing nothing though ;-)

  • Reply to

    Bought Another Spec Today

    by chance_pocketwatch Jul 17, 2014 6:58 PM
    chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Jul 18, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    Thanks, that pretty much sums up how I feel too. Using the parameters I use for screening, I’m finding it pretty difficult to find deals these days in something I feel comfortable with. Heck, for a few seconds I was even considering making a bet on Portugal Telecom - still watching.
    Anyway, it looks like I might get a first day bump on this bet, since the sector is up so far today, which might be good for a few minutes of self verifying warm fuzziness. Maybe.

  • chance_pocketwatch by chance_pocketwatch Jul 17, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    My opinion is that small caps are close to a near term bottom, so I made a bet today on HIMX, a real gamble on their possible future with Google. Got in at 5.75, with a 1 year wait and see time frame. I didn't buy it for the yield, but if they can keep their div it would be about 4.7% at 5.75. The fundamentals seem decent.
    I'd love to see it at 11 or 12, by this time next year - if news is positive.
    Anybody follow this company? Thoughts?

  • chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Jun 28, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    paulstutz -Thanks for the commiseration. I had a tight bond with this particular animal, that I won’t have again.
    I spent the first four years of her life following her around at night until she was trained to come inside at night, for one example. Being outside was not her problem.
    The amount spent just got out of hand, like doubling down on a losing investment. The first four days cost $1200, then a few hundred here and there, then the specialist for $1700, etc, etc. I really thought I could save her. I should mention that this was over a period of six months, which ended with me force feeding her, until she wouldn’t even accept that.
    A new pet will be in my future, but not for a while.

    Sorry, I missed the thumbs up and hit down by accident. MY thumbs are still trying for accuracy on the iPad.

  • chance_pocketwatch chance_pocketwatch Jun 25, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    It depends on your age and how much you need to live each year; plus inflation, taxes, location, health, etc.

    Tools like firecalc (dot) com can give you probabilities, but nobody knows what might happen in the future. A forty five year old woman with a million and annual needs of 15k should make it to 95 and still have money. If she needs 50k per year, she probably won't make it.

    Over the past 3 years I've been extremely diligent to rebalance my portfolio in an effort to have the dividends and fixed income pay my yearly expenses, including clothes, eating out and a few small vanities. This is the first year that I will meet that goal 100% and still be able to hold 20% cash, which I call crash insurance - money to live on if the divs dry up or invest during or after a crash. Of course there's always the unexpected; like I spent 6k this year in a vain effort to save my cat. (That got balanced out by a 5k inheritance)

    I figure at least 200k needs to be set aside for the last few years of my life, for assisted living, so IF I can keep my portfolio intact and live off the divs, I have confidence that someone will inherit something from me.

    I also plan on moving to a cheaper location in the next few years and pocketing some extra change. Every bit of frugality helps, but don't be frugal to the point of an unhappy existence. Work, save and invest longer, if you have to.

    My two pennies....

  • chance_pocketwatch by chance_pocketwatch Jun 20, 2014 10:32 PM Flag

    I don't expect this to continue to climb for the rest of the year, though the numbers on paper, I confess, make me feel good. I hate this stock and my broker recommended I trim my holdings by 75% 3 years ago, but I fired him instead. I hate what oil and the business of oil is doing to our health, but I've been in this via a Mobile Oil DRIP since the seventies and now that I'm no longer reinvesting the dividends, it pays a good portion of my yearly bills.
    Of course world turmoil has always been about oil and we get this knee jerk reaction every time the oil companies look like they will be able to profit from it.
    So while I'm hating what oil is doing, I'm addicted to the payouts the companies provide.
    It's tough, I'm truly addicted to oil!
    I thought by now we would see XOM go after the green energy business, by creating it's own green energy business, which it is doing, but on way too small a scale. It's baffling to me, but financially speaking, I'm glad I didn't listen to my ex broker, because I've always been a buy and hold forever investor and at this point capital gains taxes would hurt.
    So I hope that I will be dead and making future crude in the ground, when the planet stops burning this #$%$.

    Sentiment: Hold

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