That's probably a good strategy. This is as much a geo political bet as it is an oil bet. I cancelled my 25 order when I saw oil go under 90, but will try to catch it at 24, then follow it down to 22 if necessary, then I'll be done.
I may double down on my small cap ETF that I bought in Jan. Who knows? Thanks to my bonds and utilities, I'm not suffering too much.
Sounds like a plan! 2916, I'd say your golden..... as long as they have converted to solar by then ;-) The sale should be over in a week or two? Or else I've got a big hole to climb out of. Still buying.
After the RIG discussion here I looked around and initiated a position in SDRL today, with 25% of my total allotment for this sector, @26. I've got another order in for 25 now. They have cash, so I'm assuming the div (over15%) will be good for at least a year. Of course you know what they say about assuming ;-)
Did you see my quasi buy signal yesterday? Even if this is a bounce, I think you're out of the woods on this one.
I've been keeping an eye on this since you mentioned it. My thoughts.
Bellweather XOM has corrected over 10%, ISIS oil facility just bombed, RIG seems to have lots of cash to pay the div for a good while, so I think that's safe.
I think the downward momentum is pretty strong right now, so it may have further to drop and then meander for a while before reversing course. That goes for the whole industry.
Not in yet, but I'm getting close. I would feel safe buying here, but I'm notorious for missing out because I try to squeeze an extra percentage out of the downside. (That's a buy signal right there - lol)
@30 Yield = 10% and that round number will attract a flood of buyers, so I'd want to get in before that. OXY had a nice bump today, but that was on an analyst report. Oil has to rebound, not go under 90!
When I was with Morgan Stanley, I always got in every IPO I wanted, they get first tier shares.
Fidelity - never for a big one. I keep trying anyway.
I'm in this camp too, cash 21% - a real drag on income during a bull market. Mr. Cook is in the majority, but then we have Jeremy Siegel whispering yesterday about Dow possibly 18-19k. Cook talks about things coming out of left field to be the catalyst for a drop. How many things have come out of left field this year that the market just shrugged off? Many! My belief is that the majority of investors - or should I say market timers, are looking at that hard number, interest rates, and when it will rise. In anticipation of that, we'll see the market start to sell off, then when it happens (I predict a quarter of a percent) the market will over react, as it always does, and we'll see a correction and an opportunity to buy low and for the shorts to make money. Then it will be back to earnings, employment and all the other quarterly numbers that move the market. A 10% correction would be a healthy thing for the market. 20%, not so much, but I don't see it.
There's lots to like about SoCal and one place I'm considering is around the Carlsbad area - where I also have friends, because it's slower, cleaner etc, than LA, and I would be closer to sea breezes that help make July - September more bearable, temperature wise.
But there would be absolutely no financial benefit - and maybe no water either.
In my town, they have voted steady water rate increases for the next 4 years, at 4%, 4%, 4% and 5%. And that was before the drought. Yikes!
Very nice areas, Wilmington too, frigator. NC has a lot of beauty to it and I'm learning that a lot of old friends and classmates from my past are in and around Asheville - people that I like too. It would be nice to ditch the earthquake insurance and not have water rationed as well.
I started out as a buy and hold forever investor, but I was trading when I was in and out of Apple. I alway made money, but nothing compared to holding it. I still have the first 5 stocks I ever bought in the 60's. Allied Signal - now Honeywell, AEP, Mobile - now XOM, MRK and KO.
I was taught, no forced by my mother, to buy one drip in each sector in the S&P, then diversify within each sector. I finally gave up when I had two in each sector and those 20 stocks are the core of my portfolio today. Too bad I let years go by without contributing every quarter, I'd probably have a higher number up front. And LUCK played a big part in any success, since every one is a mainstay of the S&P today. I could have just as easily bought Enron, Polaroid, Eastern Airlines, RCA, Montgomery Ward, Pan AM and DeLorean Motor Co..
Ouch, that made me cringe.
Thanks, I hadn't even considered auto and home insurance. Taxes in CA are ridiculous. My expenses would be effectively cut in half and I could buy twice the house for a little more than half, depending on the area. I plan to visit my cousin soon, so I can take a look. I used to go to Cape Hatteras to surf in the fall, when I lived in Boston. Living in a place like Asheville will be the first time I haven't lived by an ocean and that will be tough for me.
Since this is OT, can I ask you where you live in NC? I grew up in Miami, went to FSU, then moved to Boston for 20 years and now in LA for 20 years. I'm looking for a place to reduce my expenses in retirement and have a cousin in Asheville, which sounds like a nice place. I also have a childhood friend who lives in Charlotte. When I check out the home prices and Google earth the landscape, I'm very impressed and I would have a good chunk of cash left over in a house swap. Southern California is drying up, it's a desert after all, and it's getting dirtier and noisier. What do you like/hate about NC?
You missed that I purchased it in '83. It's quietly outperformed just about every index for at least the past 10 years,
I bought 100 shares for 387.50 - total cost 487.50 - remember the days when brokers charged $100 a trade? It's split once since purchasing.
It's a very well managed and diversified (in what they do) company. Moving oil on water and everything that goes into it. That big pipeline that's supposed to go through our country, but hasn't yet, and the crashing of oil trains has helped KEX recently.
Of course one big oil spill by this companies barges and it will dip. Also KEX took a hit when the Mississippi river was drying up and the barges couldn't deliver.
As for the future, I have no idea. The p/e is a bit high now, so I don't think now is a time to get in, but I haven't done any homework on this for a long time, it's just something that someone will inherit someday or maybe they will declare a div and I can get something back without paying taxes on LT cap gains.
At least a small part of the reason for oil tanking, is that ISIS is selling the oil they stole for $26 a barrel to middle men who are turning it over for $50+ a barrel. Small, but psychological on the industry. I'll keep an eye on this RIG, because I sold some NS to buy FSC, because I didn't' think NS could keep paying their div - I was wrong - so far. I have other oil stock, but this is a little different.
Let me just mention what my best performing stock of the last 5 years is. Maybe decades, I'd have to check. It's a company that moves oil, mostly domestically, on the water. It's my ONLY position that pays no div. Bought in '83 on a broker recommendation - remember those lol. Drum roll ... KEX - Kirby Corporation.
I never hear ANYBODY talk about it, but, not including divs, it's out performed everything in my portfolio for at least 5 years. Maybe including divs too, but I'm not doing the math.
Obviously not a "sexy" stock, but dang I wish I had bought more at 3.87.
Sorry for the OT.
Thanks guys. As with many specs, this could get hired or acquired by one of the big boys - or not. Since it only represents 1% of my portfolio, I'll probably hang on for the ride. At least it's a bright spot in my otherwise dull portfolio today.
Time to do some more exhaustive work to try too find another deal.
Have a great weekend!
Patting myself on the back today; this turned into a good bet so far, up 45% in a little more than a month. Thinking about taking profit, but will probably let it ride to my 1 year timeline. That's the only way to collect the div, which only gets paid annually. Did anyone else try this?
Well, good luck with your short. I hope that if you're successful with your short, my small caps will be the outliers ;-) I initiated a very small position in a small cap blend index fund the same day I bought FSC, the first week of January, and I'm barely in the black now after a wild ride. I'm so heavy in large caps, I felt it was prudent to tilt a bit.
Wise words on Portugal Telecom. Now and for the foreseeable future, it's just plain ugly.
I hope you're wrong about the small caps though. I don't see a drop in the magnitude of anything in the realm of say 10%, unless the whole market tanks, which is always a distinct possibility. Like I say, I know nothing, I can't even wrap my head around why the market is rebounding before a weekend while the geo political landscape is in such turmoil. Good earnings and a numbness to bad news, I guess. ?