There are also positive Black Swans. It's a rare, unforeseen event - not necessarily negative. It's the Albino Black Swans that I'm worried about ;-)
Gotta love Taleb.
Thanks, I'll take a look. I'm always hesitant to buy bonds from companies I own stock in - eggs in basket syndrome.
Yes, I saw that, but haven't checked it out yet. I have a GO bond being called in December and something like that may be a replacement.
Once again, we mostly agree, but while I don't hold anywhere close to my age minus 10 in bonds, I do have a place for them. Reason: Fear!
They provide some ballast during hard times.
Yes, short term, that's why 20% is too much for me. Cash loses out to inflation everyday, but also having enough to live on in a crash situation, without having to sell stocks, is comforting to me. I've never panicked and sold in a crash. I learned my lesson in '87, when I was just getting somewhere with investing and I woke up one morning to see my portfolio dropped 30% while I was sleeping. It was too late to do anything about it, so I did nothing. It worked out, as did holding during 2008 and letting my drips accumulate more shares at a cheaper price. Now, in 2014, I only have a token amount of drips, the rest pays cash, which is enough to cover 80% of my yearly expenses. Part of the reason for buying FSC was to help make up the difference. Not there yet.....
Agreed, which is why I used the quotation marks. This is money from bond funds I sold in Dec. 2012. During 2013 my cash beat the finds I sold, so I'm thinking at worst I will break even over the next 6 months. It's all risk, but after 5 years of hearing about higher interest rates and seeing the current economic situation, I still see the rates as being flat for a while. So while it's still a bet, I think it's worth taking short term
Besides, short term bonds rebound fairly quickly on a raise in rates as the old bonds are sold off and the newer - higher yielding bonds, are bought, so worst case scenario, I may have to hold them a little longer. A tax-equivalent yield of about 2.35% at least gives me a little wiggle room.
The one thing that cash can yield, that no other investment can, is a good nights sleep, so maybe I'll go 5% instead of 10%.
I'm currently sitting on slightly more than 20% cash and would like to park about 10% of it in something "safe" that earns "something" rather than the dismal cash accounts offered by brokerage houses. I'm thinking short term national munis, since I believe rates will stay low for the next six months.
Ideas? Something like USSTX? Tax free 1.86% with a fairly low expense ratio seems like a better than nothing option and it seems fairly priced. At least that's where I've been looking. I'm sure there are many other options individuals choose, so let 'em rip.
Ain't that the truth! Trolls are especially attracted to the Dow 30 stocks and have totally ruined most of their boards. It's nice to be under the radar here. Of course, any spike in FSC, that generates news, will surely attract them, so lets hope for a simple, strong and steady, yet stealth, rise in our equity.
Not trying to troll myself, or pump, but my earlier mentioned equity is having a nice run this week.
Couldn't agree more. I'm not any more compelled to play with this than I am betting black at the roulette wheel. Someone will probably make money on a quick short or a long hold, but there are much better options for both. I'll keep it on my radar for a while anyway. NLY has been on my radar for a year, but I need to get in around $10 and it won't let me.
This came up on my screener last week @2.22, as oversold, but I haven't dug too deep yet. Negative earnings with an accidental high yield, but it's been beat up quite a bit. Has anyone done any research on it?
Might be worth a look for you traders.
I totally know where your coming from. Yes patience - analness more likely, Mostly lucky, with some research, but for 50 years. I watched CRME for a year before I bought it. It entered my radar when Merck dropped them. As a 5 decade drip holder of Merck, I had to look deeper. It was a $45 stock at one point and it had less going for it then than it does now - umm, except for the Merck alliance - a big deal, I know. Most of the time I want to get a deal that I can hold onto for life. Late 2012 it was VOD, for $25 and change, and I watched that for almost a year too. But that was much less speculative - I always wanted some.
So you do trade within your Roth, right? I would imagine so - to avoid short term gains taxes? But you can't deduct your losses, can you? I'm an old IRA - traditional - guy who never changed over, so I'm not sure about that. I trade in a taxable account for now, so I want mostly deals I can hold forever - or at least a year - I hate taxes. Different strokes....
Anyway, this board is one of the more civilized boards on yahoo, so I'm kind of glad I stumbled onto FSC, whether it works out profitably for me or not (hoping for 10% cap appreciation and the 10.62% div for the year).
Happy trading, I'll watch. And contribute if I find anything.
I wonder if anyone checked out CRME? If so, what did you think? Up 33% so far this year. I'm up 195% as of today. If the FDA lifts it's ban, it surely has another 100% upside, possibly more. Lots of little good news lately, but the one that matters is US approval. If it doesn't get approved in the US, it will tank, but it's getting approved in other countries and they're making distribution deals, so with caution, I'm optimistic .
I should make it known that I'm not a trader like a lot of you here. I wait a long time for something to get beat up so I can buy it cheap, then wait a year or two for it to flourish. I day traded for two decades and did well, but over time my buy and holds beat my trades by a wide margin, so I try to buy a dollar for .50 cents now, when I can, and hold everything else long term. I want to buy things before they get positive press, when they start getting a lot of trading action, and before analysts rate them a buy.
BTW, you guys are trading inside your ROTHs, right?
I have no problem with traders, btw, I totally get the attraction. I've just developed a strategy that keeps me away from it. But, of course, I still like to hunt.
So, back to the original question: Anyone check out CRME?
Best of luck to everyone!
Not sure if we're saying the same thing or not , mr.phil. Fidelity deposited the cash div into my account on the 31st. Fidelity told me that FSC re invests the shares in house and then forwards the re invested shares to Fidelity, thus the lag time between cash and re invested shares. Yes, you can get varying info depending on the rep, but that happens everywhere. It's all good.
Never mind. FSC is one of the few companies that still invest their shares in house before sending them to the brokerage, and at a slight discount, causing the lag time. I should read the whole prospectus next time.
Yes, I agree, it would seem unlikely that he would accept an interview to defend bad earnings. Possible, but unlikely. Today may prove to be the dip of the year, who knows, I'll accept the 50% gains from last year and not worry about even a 10% pullback, if the market corrects.
I owned Allied Signal in DRIP form and got the blessing of Hon stock when they merged - what in '99?. Three years ago I brought my drips into my brokerage account and realized that it was in the category of overweight, representing 7.5% of my total portfolio, so I trimmed it by a third over two years. Now it represents 9% of my total (due to it's phenomenal growth), so that didn't work out too well. Maybe it would be 12% by now and logically way overweight, but 20/20 hindsight, I wished I never sold a single share. All companies hit bumps and miss earnings, so I'm always anxious when it's earnings time for Hon, but this has been one of the best long term investments I've ever made, so I'm holding. Probably forever. Dave Cote has made a lot of smart moves and has done wonders with this company, so even if they miss from time to time I'll still be an owner at some percentage.
FDA approval = triple gain. FDA rejection, back to square one. Obviously I holding until that date with reality. It is speculation after all. I feel good though and will hold.