I'm not sure if it will hit $5, but I think it could go to $6. Really the turnaround (if it is successful and again I'm seeing no evidence that it will be) is taking much longer than I modeled and with far lower profit due to the much lower margins. Not good metrics at all. Beats is just smoking them and I underestimated that.
I use to call you crazy, but I'm starting to paraphrase you myself here and there. Funny that my articles have never moved stocks even a penny but now this, so what you are saying makes sense. They are probably short from $11. Earnings were not good and really although I was very very wrong by saying to sell, the big drop should have been the cue to buy knowing something was "up"
Agree with you there, OP. Earnings were not great. I still made one of the worst public calls in history. Will be interesting to see where this shakes out.
I have nothing to gain by "manipulating the price" and a couple things changed, like the RSH huge miss and the research I did about the online presence. For the record nobody had any information about my article being released and I haven't benefited from it by trading around SKUL in any way.
I may be initiating short on SKUL for the first time ever. Right now on the sidelines after selling Tuesday, been trading short other stocks, nothing long. Fundamentally this story looks terrible, I agree with your assessment.
If you read my latest article, you would see I didn't bash SKUL. I just brought up a few reasons why I decided to cash my chips ahead of the call. Those reasons still seem pretty compelling to me and were not addressed. If I held I'd be out today, maybe $0.50-$1 higher. This was a "best case scenario" for anybody holding. I took the easy money with no risk, I do that all the time and will continue to do it, over and over. The day I posted the article the stock was mid-$8s. I was screaming buy the loudest in the $5s. I like to sell into hype and in the $8s there was alot of hype. I wasn't impressed with the earnings and lower margins and think that the beat was due to some early signs of channel stuffing. Question is, did you make money or not?
Almost like the proverbial hatch door opened and everybody wanted to sell the past couple days. Tough to turn down the guaranteed 50% profit. OP is right about one thing, there is not a lot of buyers for any decent sized blocks.
I'm averaged in SKUL in mid to high $5s over the past 15 months. Of course that trade looked very bad when it was briefly in the $4s. I'm still ways away from a "double", but thats not my goal here. The valuation is just too low with a market cap still around $200m. Return to growth will return quickly to the IPO price so if you believe that it can show just a little growth then you will see all the promise come back and it get back to the high teens. That could happen quickly. I think that $30s will require double the sales of their best year (2012) and double the profit. Really not impossible and IMO likely eventually. But the easy money is made between now and $15-$20. Shorting this though, just silly. Why not short NFLX, TSLA, P, FB etc… I can go on and on for you of great potential short candidates with compelling reasons for each but clearly you are here just to be a rabble rouser because shorting a stock halfway through a turnaround, with zero debt and plenty of cash that is being upgraded that is down still 60% off its IPO price is just silly with all the other real short opportunities that exist in the market. Don't you think?
This is precisely why I stopped "trading" a couple years ago. Day to day action is meaningless. If I had an itchy trigger finger I'd have been out in the $4s, $5s, $6s and $7s and here we are now and I'm shooting for at least a double before taking anything off the table. Long term still looking at $30s and I haven't sold a single share and am all-in with an average in the $5s. Been holding this over a year as my only position in the market. Why sell now when the fun is just beginning? Trades way too thinly to be able to buy it back easily (barring a catastrophic event). Those looking for an entry see this quickly slipping away. I remember taking a similar long-term position in UAL (was UAUA at the time) and averaged down to below $4 and held for over a year sweating it out every day. It dropped to $3 and I was down huge (30%) and when it went back up I sold for a small gain after almost 2 years holding it as my sole position. I did OK, but then watched it skyrocket to now close to $50. When it was $7 and the story started to really look alot better and all the analysts were upgrading it again (bankruptcy was a fear at one point) I couldn't bring myself to buy as I just sold in the $4s and watched it slip away. I wont make that mistake again. I was right the whole time about the company and spent hundreds if not thousands of hours making sure that I was right but I let the fear mongers like OP on the boards get the best of me and convince me that something was critically wrong when the turnaround was really underway like I kept saying it was. My trading life is full of stories like these and I wont bore you with anymore details only to say that I'm in it for keeps this time. Not losing any sleep either as there is zero debt and healthy cash and the company in its worst year ever was still cash flow positive in the midst of a massive reset and restructuring. Its a very rare opportunity if you have the vision, and I believe that a double is imminent at the very least.
It is quite amusing, I concur with that sentiment. One moment OP considers analysts to be part of some massive conspiracy and irrelevant and now he is starting threads quoting a boilerplate report generated by a computer program that issues thousands of reports a day.
Regarding the float, theres only about 3-4 million freely trading shares if you back out insiders, institutional holdings and Goode.
The move up began with the BUY upgrade from Roth, so thats hardly "no reason". It continued with CES related catalysts and a price target increase from Roth to $9 (based on Toshiba deal).
First of all my credibility is all publicly documented and you are free to review all of my plays in the past several years. I think you will find that my record speaks for itself. Not to say I've never been wrong, but my wins greatly outpace my losses. SKUL is up a little more than a whopping $2 over historical lows while LOGI is up $10. While LOGI may very well be at the end of a parabolic move, SKUL's move so far has not been anything parabolic. The stock is still off over 60% from the IPO price in 2011, while the S&P is up over 50% from then. Parabolic is NFLX, AMZN, GMCR, I can go on and on… but hardly SKUL. I like SKUL and am confident with my long term position because its low risk, no debt, plenty of cash and the story makes sense. Still undervalued and you will see that within a couple quarters or so when I believe it will go "parabolic".