Obviously, we can't trust ourselves because too many mistakes were made. Can we trust the Wall Street, those million dollar compensated analysts (experts)? They said to buy at $30. Can we trust the management team? Can we trust Patrick Soon-Shiong? He led several successful companies, but how about this time? The stock price voted no.
NRZ has over 15% yield, but it's stock price down and down.
Here are my takes: like all other companies has some paper assets (securities), when the economy goes bad, the paper value decrease. How interest rate change would affect its book value, I don't know. But, what I sensed, book value risk may be the number one people are considering. The second one is related to its MBS business, for some reason, some analysts mentioned the business is fading away (why they said this, I don't know), at least the management admitted it does not have growth potential any more. If you read their annual report of 2014, you can see Excess MBS was more than half of their businesses.
I heard they are trying to "transfer" from MBS to something else. When this happens, there are always risks associated with it. They may find some good opportunities, or may not. 15% dividend provided a comfortable cushion, But, since the unsteady of its stock price, after I did some research, I would not buy in for now.