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J. C. Penney Company, Inc. Message Board

chase07470 294 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 3, 2015 12:18 PM Member since: Mar 5, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Here's what's happening

    by chase07470 Aug 3, 2015 8:40 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Aug 3, 2015 12:18 PM Flag

    Here it is, seriously...all the stocks you mentioned except CMG, potentially can experience parabolic growth quickly with little infrastructure spend beyond what currently exists. The potential customers already have direct access to the product.

    Shake Shak? You have to find each and every location, build it, staff it, over and over and over again. CMG has been a great stock to own and it was clear early it was a winner, but go look at the first three years of that chart....very painful unless you bought the bottoms and even if you did, it took years for the stock to balloon as they slowly and methodically built out locations. Brick and mortar is never parabolic, you can't order a cheeseburger online and have it shipped out of a giant warehouse..custoners have to be close to locations and that takes time...lots and lots and lots of time. As it stands, SS has no aggressive plan to expand. 10 next year. Even if they are all home runs, the PE ration is still 300. Good luck having that hold up in this market. If you want to buy, wait. You will get a good chance.

  • It's all psychology. For the shareholders who can finally sell the stock, they see the big rise and think, "why can't it go higher?," and hold. For people who have been wanting to short, they think, "I don't want to short a stock that can go up $20 in two days, too dangerous." So when they start to bring it back down, the longs who didn't sell, get stubborn and hold, hoping it goes back up and the would be shorts think they missed their price and sit on the sidelines. Not to mention all the weak shorts who are now buying in the high $60's...

    If you make semiconductors and suddenly have a big demand, you can fulfill it it quickly. If you're an internet company that everyone discovers, you can have millions of customers, seemingly overnight. But to grow a restaurant? Years and years and years. This is a $35 stock and that's building in a lot of hope. The truth is, it's going to be very hard for SS to find locations. All their competitors are already in every mall, in every town, in every city and their burger just isn't good enough to steal all the business.

  • chase07470 by chase07470 Jul 7, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    30 years in the market, never saw a stock growing revenue at 40% quarter over quarter trading at 21 PE for next year's earnings. Mr. Market has outdone itself with this piece of brilliant manipulation.

    Takes and iron set, I doubled my position.

  • Reply to

    Here's the Problem with BABA...Short Interest

    by fredrickson01 Jun 23, 2015 2:19 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 23, 2015 4:02 PM Flag

    Exactly. Being long BABA is like playing US Open golf. The course just wears you out, little by little until you crack. The whole bounce to $94 happened so quickly and was completely manufactured to induce another slow, death bleed to wear out the resolve of shareholders. They can't bring it much below $80 so they throttled it and death bleed it. I mean, the company is growing revenue at 40% yoy, yet they have a 22 forward PE. It's crazy but it's also safe to own at these prices. They can't bring it lower than $80 so load up.

    Money in the market is earned through grit and will. It always has been, always will be.

  • Reply to

    every day a new low

    by polotengoal Jun 23, 2015 12:25 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 23, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Reminds me of Apple in 2006-2008. The writing was on the wall about the growth in front of it and the street absolutely tortured the longs for two years. Difference here is the forward PE of 22. They can on;y play the game for so long and with the 40% growth in revenue, quarter after quarter, it will end sooner than what they did in Apple.

    I'm just going to keep buying dips, nibbling away, taking advantage of the game being played with low prices and a reward that's coming down the road.

  • Reply to

    Alibaba = Netflix + Amazon in china

    by punjabifreaks Jun 15, 2015 11:14 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 15, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Don't forget Paypal, ebay, online banking, mobile/wireless and all the investment in India. This will be the first trillion dollar company and all the worry about china being unsafe for investment? Alibaba is too big to fail or be messed with.

    Mr. Market will have to get in gear come August earnings when they deliver another 40-50% revenue increase...going to be fun.

  • Reply to

    Not a big deal

    by chase07470 Jun 11, 2015 8:59 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 11, 2015 9:04 AM Flag

    In fact, the is may already be done in terms of finding a buyer. The stock traded somewhere around 15 million shares on Tuesday.

    Careful shorts, the second the market realizes their is no opportunity to suppress and force the sale lower, it will squeeze.

  • chase07470 by chase07470 Jun 11, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    Yes, it will kill upward momentum short term but it has no impact on the fundamentals or the outlook. The second it's reported he has completed the sale, the stock will pop back up. Might be over by tomorrow.

  • chase07470 chase07470 Jun 11, 2015 5:17 AM Flag

    This is not a momentum stock. This whole rise was created because the short float was more than 30% in the $40's. With no options to hedge the positions and a small float, they were sitting ducks. With lock up expiration months away, there was nothing to fear in running the stock up and destroying shorts. They did, now lock up looms and it's being walked back down.

    Anyone holding long is going to lose their money.

  • chase07470 chase07470 Jun 10, 2015 6:20 PM Flag

    That's an interesting way of looking at it. Here's the deal, the low volume is bad for longs, it mans no one is stepping in to stop the decline because no one thinks it's a good value here.

    You know why? Because not only isn't it a good value, it may be the worst value of any publicly traded company in the world!

    The rise was a short squeeze, plain and simple. The decline is about getting the stock priced right so Danny Meyer and all the other insiders will be allowed to redeem their shares come July 29th into a market that feels the price is a good value.

    What is that price? $25-$40 and that's still awfully high. It could be below $20.

  • Reply to

    A lot of very worried shorts

    by chase07470 Jun 9, 2015 8:52 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 9, 2015 9:20 AM Flag

    Ru-Oh. LP is pumping the story like the master he is. By far, my favorite CEO of any company I've ever invested in.

  • Wait until you hear Laurent pump this thing through $66. Nine minutes. Better cover now.

  • Reply to

    Good morning longs!

    by fogg39 Jun 9, 2015 6:42 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 9, 2015 7:05 AM Flag

    Very good quarter. I didn't realize just how good a CEO we got when LP was hired. He's going to take LULU to another level and am really looking forward to the 9am call to hear all about the progress of the company.

    Again, if you're short, cover before the call. No one pumps it like LP.

  • Reply to

    ridiculous drop!

    by qktrdr Jun 8, 2015 12:50 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 8, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    Yes, a LOT more guys wear LULU than last year. Do I think it will account for blow out sales? No. But it mitigates weather and port issues, for sure.

    I've been following this company very closely since piling into a monster position last June, below $40. There's not a thing I see that worries me heading into tomorrow. At worst they meet expectations, at best they beat by three cents. But one thing I LOVE about LULU earnings calls is the CEO's ability to pump the company. Among the best in the world, imo.

    I would not want to be short heading into that call.

  • Reply to

    ridiculous drop!

    by qktrdr Jun 8, 2015 12:50 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 8, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    Guys wearing LULU all over Manhattan, on golf courses and at the beach. I've been amazed at the numbers although I recently talked to a sales rep who came from the south and she said they didn't sell much there.

    Should be interesting tomorrow.

    I bought more today, as I do on all dips. This is a great brand with a lot of growth in front of it.

  • Reply to

    Buy the dips, sell the rallies.

    by pumpkinoat Jun 2, 2015 2:54 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 3, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    This stock going up requires big players stepping up and buying. Gets riskier and riskier as lock up expiration gets closer and other big players look to cash out.

    I do look forward to seeing what SHAK's real valuation ends up being. It's a great concept and should grow for years.

  • Reply to

    Going to 44.35 after earning!

    by straddlepro Jun 2, 2015 3:50 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 3, 2015 7:22 AM Flag

    Best, most profitable brand in the hottest trend in fashion. Good luck with that prediction.

  • Reply to

    Buy the dips, sell the rallies.

    by pumpkinoat Jun 2, 2015 2:54 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 2, 2015 4:38 PM Flag

    Look at the volume. She's out of gas. Take your money and run because this is going to get ugly fast. 3/4 of the people who own this stock own it as a momentum play. Guess what they become when the momentum goes against them? Sellers.

  • Reply to

    Burger Fi vs Shake Shack

    by stevezimmerman7 Jun 1, 2015 10:51 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 2, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    If you think this valuation will hold up over the next three months, you're going to be sadly disappointed. Bubble valuations can last a long time with internet stocks but not brick and mortar. With tech, they turn on the switch and there is no barrier to the customer, everyone has instant access. With shake, it's going to take ten years to get the number of stores up and running to support this valuation.

    Great restaurant, horrible investment here. I'm a buyer at $22.

  • Reply to

    Burger Fi vs Shake Shack

    by stevezimmerman7 Jun 1, 2015 10:51 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 2, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    You guys don't like burgerfi. Sounds like you feel you get less for more money. You're a value consumer with your burgers. But the beef is better at Burgerfi, so for a health conscious consumer, who is aware of their weight and likes a little bit more atmosphere, the choice might be completely different.

    Another point, you already have three choices. What happens when Habit, Fat, Smash, Bobby's and all the others come to town? OR will some avoid Ft Lauderdale after the first two jump in? SHak is in a real estate race and with 10 planned next year, it sure doesn't seem like they're going to win.

    I have no doubt the Shak will grow. But this isn't an internet company, it cost a lot of money to expand, it takes a lot of time and other chains are moving in, everywhere. Generally, a high valuation for a no brainer, brick and mortar grower is 60-90 pe ratio. This is at 500.

    It's a short squeeze. If you like Shak as a long term investment, wait until the 7 million additional shares are dumped on the market and options open. You'll be picking up shares for $33.

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