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J. C. Penney Company, Inc. Message Board

chase07470 84 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Mar 5, 2008
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  • The 5 million share float. This potentially could be the short squeeze of all short squeezes given how few shares are available for trading.

    You have to love this short given the valuation but man, it's a scary trade.

  • chase07470 chase07470 Mar 31, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    Been around the market long enough to know that every game gives way to reality, sooner or later. With improving margins, 12 new stores coming on line, a 24 forward PE ratio and a whole country of growth in front of it, the story changes from manipulation to growth story, right here and now, at this level.

    if you're short, you better cover. Time is running out. You can just feel it in the way it's trading that the bulls are gaining control.

  • chase07470 chase07470 Mar 31, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    What I see is a fast growing company, priced like a moderate growth story with a margin issue caused by rising food costs that they've addressed.

    Should be better numbers going forward and a price that reflects the growth trajectory towards full roll to of over 400 stores in the US and double that, abroad.

    Short this stock? You'd have to insane or stupid to do that.

  • chase07470 by chase07470 Mar 31, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    Only just over 5 million available shares to trade. There are over 18 million shares due to hit the market at the end of July. The squeeze can only last so long. Who in their right mind would not cash out come 7/29 at those prices?

    Do you really think the market is going to give them the opportunity to sell when the valuation amounts to $212 for every burger currently sold?

  • Reply to

    The haircut is over now the slaughter begins

    by madtrader666 Mar 6, 2015 12:04 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 2:13 PM Flag

    24 PE, growing at 20% on new store openings alone. Improving margins by raising prices and opening new restaurants in already opened markets to leverage costs....

    What I see is Mr. Market making one last plunge to get shares from the weak. I'm buying with them. Lets see where we are in a year. Hint: $52.

  • Reply to

    Name your bottom price

    by chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 8:26 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    I don't see a price anywhere near what you've suggested.

    In the end, this a company with a 26 PE ratio that grew 40% YOY. No matter how many shares come on to the market, there will be value buyers ready to snap up those shares and we're pretty close to that price right now.

    We are talking about the biggest internet company in China. Nothing but growth in front of them.

  • Reply to

    Baba $68 on lockup expiration day

    by fatedecides21 Mar 10, 2015 9:41 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 9:57 AM Flag

    The whole point of the anti-corruption crackdown is to make the market more transparent in the future.

    this is a GOOD thing for investing in China but will be a little bumpy. If you REALLY think that China is going to ruin it's number one tech company, then you have NO grasp on what is going on there.

  • Reply to

    Baba $68 on lockup expiration day

    by fatedecides21 Mar 10, 2015 9:41 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    Never get there. This is EBAY, Amazon and Pay Pal all rolled into a market five times the size of the US.

    They are in the middle of the corruption crackdown because of their positioning as the number on internet commerce site. But in the end, illegal business is simply replaced by legal business, the platform remains the same.

  • chase07470 by chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 8:26 AM Flag

    Linked In went from IPO of $80 to $101 and then crashed on its expiration like Baba, down to $63. Four years later it's trading at $260.

    My prediction for Baba's bottom is $75.

    What's yours?

  • chase07470 chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 8:13 AM Flag

    Great post. You can get a real bargain with AMZN at 90 billion revenue and only a $170 billion market cap. Should be worth $270 billion!

    Oh wait. They lost $250 million.

    Maybe valuing companies on revenue and not profit is a pretty stupid idea, after all.

  • Reply to

    Should be interesting from here

    by chase07470 Mar 6, 2015 4:58 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 8, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    What about Chip Wilson resigning from the board? He still has a billion in this company. Walking away makes a lot more sense if you know it's going to be sold and you're money is safe.

    Could be a coincidence but the guy doesn't strike me as someone who is real comfortable with other people in charge of his money.

  • Reply to

    Shorting More

    by chase07470 Mar 5, 2015 9:09 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 7, 2015 7:45 AM Flag

    Meanwhile you have a company like CHUY, that does have that crave factor, has better numbers, further along in its growth, a more proven concept, trading at a fraction of what SS is.

    I own CHUY and am short SS. Give it one year and watch how reality catches up to both stocks.

  • Reply to

    Should be interesting from here

    by chase07470 Mar 6, 2015 4:58 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 6, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    I'm riding this to $125 or the merger. Bought more today, like everyone else.

    With the money Nike has and the brand equity here, I honestly have no idea what they're waiting for. They could explode this brand, wrap up the women's segment and make billions. They have the global infrastructure to roll it so much more quickly while leveraging the people and systems already in place. It just makes too much sense.

    The timing of the GS downgrade, coupled with the fact they had absolutely nothing to report in terms of new information is just too odd for something not to be up.

    My first thought was like yours, that they were breaking it down through support. But the more I think about it, the more I'm thinking something bigger is in the works.

    We'll see.

  • Is Nike trying to buy LULU? Perhaps GS trying to get the price down to provide value in an effort to win the banking on the deal? Timing was just odd. The reasons were all the same things being discussed for months.

    There was an outsized move, then the volume of buyers stepped in. Perhaps one last flush to run stops before a move to $80?

    LULU is winning a HUGE share of the men's business. It's on a brand tier all it's own in the segment. The numbers are going to be real good next quarter.

  • Reply to

    The haircut is over now the slaughter begins

    by madtrader666 Mar 6, 2015 12:04 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 6, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    By the time I stop buying this, it will be the biggest position I've ever owned. Success in food is all about cost and craving. CHUY has them both.

    All they have to do is keep opening restaurants. Sooner or later the street will figure it out, then it's going to $75.

  • Reply to

    From DJ Newswire

    by dunrunnin2 Mar 6, 2015 8:38 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 6, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    Watch another bank with net long clients come out and reaffirm their $72 price target.

    I don't know when the day will come but it will come, when the market ignores analysts. The corruption and ineptitude is just striking.

    At $39 there wasn't a single analyst suggesting the most profitable retailer in the world was going to rebound. SMH.

    What does it matter. This is the best brand in the fastest growing fashion segment. We have great management and a world to grow into.

    I just bought more.

  • chase07470 by chase07470 Mar 5, 2015 9:09 AM Flag

    I have the funds to take this to the limit, regardless of how crazy the squeeze gets. Beyond the fact it will take years and years for this company to grow into the current valuation, the burger just isn't that good. I've had it a handful of times, never crave it, don't even really want to eat it.

    Big Mac is better. Five Guys is better. In and Out is way better...the list goes on. This became an NYC tourist phenomenon. It was something people could get in the big city that they couldn't get back home and the company smartly situated near major attractions to fit nicely into almost every tourists itinerary. But the bottom line, it lacks the crave factor of a Chipoltle or an In and Out and that will mean mediocre sales and an eventual cratering of the stock.


  • chase07470 by chase07470 Feb 27, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    Sold this morning. Don't think the earnings were too bad and the company is trending in the right direction. I think it goes higher from here, but am selling because I fell in love with another company and want to put my money to work there. JCP is possibly a 100% return, at best from here. CHUY is a possible 600% return over the next couple of years, soI'm heading over there.

    Still, 30% in 90 days is not to shabby.


  • Reply to

    lulu buyout by Macy's

    by naplesknight Feb 4, 2015 9:38 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Feb 20, 2015 11:58 AM Flag

    Macy's has $1 billion in cash and $7 billion of debt. Not a chance in the world they would try to swallow LULU. Nike on the other hand....

  • chase07470 chase07470 Feb 19, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    The only thing that matters is whether the affordable car sells like an iPhone to the masses or if it's just another car. Stock is either dirt cheap or wholly over-priced.

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