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J. C. Penney Company, Inc. Message Board

chase07470 59 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 14, 2015 6:53 AM Member since: Mar 5, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Greenberg and Chanos are my heros...

    by hulahula101272 Nov 13, 2015 6:38 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Nov 14, 2015 6:53 AM Flag

    "certain costs of shipping etc" Come on, this is vague nonsense. And if they're enticinging people to use mobile, good for them. One more good mobile number in the next earnings report and this thing is going to take off.

    Baba started going down off the jobs number which indicated lift off for the fed. Strong dollar is bad for their earnings. That and the lower than expected China consumer growth number, the re-crash of's not fraud fear that's moving this. There's no smoking gun, just vague accusation. "A ball of wet yarn" I mean, a phd in accounting going through the books for weeks, meeting with PWC in Hong Kong and that's it?

  • Reply to

    In the end...

    by chase07470 Nov 13, 2015 11:12 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Nov 14, 2015 6:44 AM Flag

    You're right, it has a much lower PE ratio than FB ever did. There's literally no risk in this stock, right now. Priced too low, growing too fast. Market crashed it to handle the lock up expiration and your confusing that with a lot of other nonsense. This is the pullback before the move to $100.

    Got to love Wall Street. Somehow able to sour the world on the biggest e-commerce company in the world. Trading near a 20 PE ratio. Unbelievable.

    Keep buying.

  • Reply to

    In the end...

    by chase07470 Nov 13, 2015 11:12 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Nov 13, 2015 8:38 PM Flag

    Just like Facebook?

  • Reply to

    Greenberg and Chanos are my heros...

    by hulahula101272 Nov 13, 2015 6:38 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Nov 13, 2015 8:17 PM Flag

    Why? For doing all that research and coming up with exactly nothing? I think PWC is aware of Baba's profile in the world and wouldn't be signing off on the earnings if their was fraud. It would only bring down the entire, global accounting firm.

    The shorts are clowns. Baba is going down because the strong dollar negatively impacts their earnings. Dollar goes up when the fed raises, simple as that.

  • Reply to

    In the end...

    by chase07470 Nov 13, 2015 11:12 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Nov 13, 2015 8:14 PM Flag

    Did you not see the rip from $57 to $86? I sure like the way this stock goes up.
    I have no idea what your talking about with the other nonsense. The day information surfaces that BABA's been cooking the books and the company has to be revalued, would be the greatest day in the miserable lives of the short sellers.

    This stock will blast through $110 in the next twelve months. Just wait and watch.

  • chase07470 by chase07470 Nov 13, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    The "accounting issues" play from the celebrity short artists isn't really working very well. Yes, they got a $10 pull back but we've seen what "real issues" have done to Valeant and others, they get cut by 65%.

    Greenburg and Chanos have been all through the numbers, they've been through the books with PWC in Hong Kong and all they can come up with is vague accusations, nothing close to a smoking gun. If things are so wrong with the company, why is it so hard to come up with something, anything with any substance?

    Hope they're covering because there is only so many times you can go to this tactic befiore your ignored. They're in the 8th inning of that game. I'm a buyer here.

  • Reply to


    by panorahan Nov 13, 2015 10:19 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Nov 13, 2015 10:47 AM Flag

    Fox Business News is much better. The team is more mature and seasoned. CNBC is a clown car. Did you see the difference in the handling of the debates? They assembled a much better team, Dobbs, Cavuto Maria are better journalists than anyone at CNBC. Cramer is clownish and wrong ALL THE TIME. Faber is way too in love with himself. Joe used to be humble, he's arrogant and not nearly as funny as he thinks.

    I'm done with CNBC. They can keep beating this BABA is a fraud drum. Bottom line is whether they are right or wrong, baba is just going to keep reporting outstanding numbers, acquiring huge growth business and turn into the biggest company in the world.

  • Reply to

    Chanos and BABA

    by fartnose1 Nov 7, 2015 12:41 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Nov 7, 2015 7:00 AM Flag

    Great post and so true regarding China's international reputation being inextricably tied to Baba. This is the WHOLE point of this investment. I can think of no other company in the history of finance as important to a country as this company is to China.

    The global financial community sent China the ultimate message in the late summer. The destruction of their market was ultimately triggered by the surprise and not properly communicated, devaluation but many, many events leading up to that played a part...from decimating Macau, to harassing BABA to the anti-business corruption campaign to all the hacking and surveillance...many other examples. But the market crash woke them up and they are doing EVERYTHING to become a trusted and reliable part of the financial community.

    That's what President Wu's whole trip to the UN General Assembly was about. Stopped in Seattle and talked to tech leaders, telling them the country would become more open and needed to act like Alibaba! Macau is being addressed as you can see from the rise of Wynn and other gaming stocks there, cyber security stocks are crashing because the hacking has stopped, many other examples of how things have changed based on the punishment their market was put through.

    This is a critical time in China's economic development. The very, very, very last thing they need is their highest profile company going up in the flames of fraud. It will never happen. They will do everything, including running gov. business through the books of Alibaba, to ensure the revenue and earnings are legit. Just watch this play out. Chanos is going to get run over if he is still short.

  • First, Baba is THE company that represents China to the world. When the President is in the US meeting tech leaders in Seattle, who is right next to him? Ma. He even said, "China has to become more like Alibaba." In China, when you have the government backing, you're f*cking invincible.

    He thinks there are accounting irregularities? Good luck getting anyone to investigate it. China's whole global business reputation is tied in to Baba. So, it's extremely unlikely the government would be in bed this closely with Baba if there was fraud and if there is, even more than extremely unlikely anyone will do anything to uncover it.

    If anything, the market's going to run this up his a88 because there are too many of these guys now holding press conferences and trying to destroy companies on rumor and accusation. It worked for awhile, now watch what happens to Chanos. He's going to be taught a lesson and everyone will be watching.

  • Company blows out earnings, analysts with price targets all through the upper 30's and into the 40's. A clear growth story, with doves and dozens of untapped markets ahead of it and the market just kills the stock.

    Short term frustration equals opportunity. You can buy this under $30 with no fear or trepidation. If the market makers want to play games, buy the lower prices and they lose. That's what I'll be doing pretty soon. Hoping for $28.

  • chase07470 by chase07470 Oct 27, 2015 7:18 AM Flag

    Expect to see $110 to $140 estimates. These earnings were blowout based on expectations.

  • why would you be short baba going into tomorrow? LOL.

  • Reply to

    CMG simply too big to grow exponentially anymore

    by chase07470 Oct 21, 2015 8:21 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Oct 21, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    I'm looking for my next addiction place. If Chuy's was in the area, I'd be eating there.

  • Reply to

    CMG simply too big to grow exponentially anymore

    by chase07470 Oct 21, 2015 8:21 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Oct 21, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    Proof of concept is very, very solid. It's working wherever it goes, profitably. Revenue and profit growing 20% yoy on opening 10-12 new locations every year. Numbers should get better as the brand becomes more well known in the states they expanded into as they open more locations around the original locations.

    Management has proven to be operationally sound. They improved margins by instituting new procedures that worked across the whole base, lifting profit margin in 2015.

    I would like to see higher same store sales growth as it seems to come in at around 2% every quarter.

    I got interested after a glowing recommendation to eat there on a golf course in Orlando. Went there, it was a very crowded, lively atmosphere and the food was so good, I went back the next night.

    In the end, it's been through the IPO and crash cycle and think it's in that sweet spot for growth over the next two years.

  • Reply to

    CMG simply too big to grow exponentially anymore

    by chase07470 Oct 21, 2015 8:21 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Oct 21, 2015 9:10 AM Flag

    Beyond just the number of stores, I think we're seeing an inevitable fatigue in the addictiveness of Chipoltle. I was a huge addict and while I still enjoy the taste, I've had it so much that I really don't go out of my way for it, anymore. I think that's probably true for many people.

    Investing in restaurant stocks is about finding low risk growth stories. To me, the best one us chuy. It started in Austin, TX and for decades has ruled the tex mex category there, which is very competitive. As it expands into places like Florida, Tennessee and Ohio, they just have very little competition for a highly addictive menu.

  • I've invested CMG winnings over at chuy. Addicting mexican food competing against on the border more than cmg.

    Only 60 restaurants, every one they open is an instant hit and they have a whole country of growth in front of them. With a PE in the 30's, its a great buy. CMG traded at pr's higher than 100 for most of its growth run and the pe in chug will expand exponentially as investors catch on to the opportunity there.

  • Profit Margin:
    Baba 52%
    sbux: 14.6%

    QTR Revenue Growth
    Baba: 28%
    Sbux 17.5%

    QTR Earnings growth
    Baba: 148%
    Sbux: 22.3%

    Forward PE Ratio:
    Baba: 2.92
    Sbux: 31

    Stock Price November 2014
    Baba $120
    sbux $37.70

    Current Stock Price
    Baba: $62.70
    sbux: $57.50

    Go figure.

  • Reply to

    Lower Dollar

    by chase07470 Oct 2, 2015 10:32 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Oct 2, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    Chinese are a relentlessly commercial people. I don't bet against relentless in anything. But GLTY.

  • Reply to

    Lower Dollar

    by chase07470 Oct 2, 2015 10:32 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Oct 2, 2015 2:29 PM Flag

    Thanks. A few more thoughts. When China devalued their currency, it surprised everyone. It's not the way you do business in the global community. The consequence of acting independently and without regard for everyone else was the global financial community hammered their stocks. To send a message.

    The message was received loud and clear. On the recent visit, the Chinese President first stops on the west coast to meet with business leaders to say, China is going to become more open, more business friendly. He even brought Jack Ma with him and said, "like Alibaba." He then reiterated the same message in Washington and New York. That is a big reason for the pop as well. The punishment is over, the mistake was acknowledged, the lesson learned. BIIIG reason for the pop as well.

    Now anyone who saw the President of China sit Ma next to him and say, "China will be like Alibaba going forward," and still thinks Baba is a scam, is an idiot. Sorry, but you are.

    Ma worked very hard, he envisioned it, he tactfully put the company in that position by being as open as he could without getting the party angry. And when the party made the currency misstep (which was the final straw in a whole host of anti-business decisions), I'm sure he was there to explain what they needed to do which has led to the new road they re on.

    Ma is keenly aware of Alibaba's position as the face of Chinese business. He knows he has to run that business to the highest ethical standards for that very reason.

    Baba is a buy in bright, blinking lights. The barriers have been removed. It will go to the $80's and then await the inevitable growth to show up on the bottom line, quarter after quarter, going forward, for as far as the eye can see.

  • Reply to

    Lower Dollar

    by chase07470 Oct 2, 2015 10:32 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Oct 2, 2015 1:35 PM Flag

    If you look at the biggest decline in your stocks, it correlates with the Chinese weakening their currency which happened at the same time the market was lifting the dollar because of expectations of a fed rate hike. No rate hike and the $ declines more that 1% against all other currencies today and causes the pop.

    The market isn't going to respond to chinese stimulus. They have stimulated and stimulated and stimulated some more and the countries stocks have just gone lower and lower as the spread between the dollar and the RMB widened. That gap closes, Chinese stocks pop.

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