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J. C. Penney Company, Inc. Message Board

chase07470 44 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 7, 2015 11:46 AM Member since: Mar 5, 2008
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  • chase07470 chase07470 Jun 2, 2015 8:06 AM Flag

    Not so smart to compare brick and mortar to technology stocks. With tech stocks, everyone is a potential customer, instantly. Brick and mortar takes years and years and years just to get to the potential customers. Nice company, a lot of growth ahead but nowhere for the stock to go but down at this point.

  • Reply to

    Shakeout ahead of earnings

    by chase07470 May 21, 2015 12:45 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Jun 1, 2015 7:08 AM Flag

    You're buying the bs doomsday argument being promoted and sold to investors to scare them from capitalizing on what is the greatest economic expansion in the history of the world. Across the continents, everywhere, billions of people being brought into the financial system and modern economies. This unprecedented economic expansion will continue, unabated, for the next twenty years. Keep shorting, keep losing. All the monetary policy moves have done is put this inevitable growth into super charge.

  • Reply to

    Shakeout ahead of earnings

    by chase07470 May 21, 2015 12:45 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 May 31, 2015 4:55 PM Flag

    Exactly. LULU is being dragged down b the sector and the overall market. I'm very confident about earnings. But getting there is creating some great buying opportunities. Good earnings and it will shrug off the sector, like Nike.

  • chase07470 chase07470 May 27, 2015 8:38 PM Flag

    And Chipoltle at $300 had 600 stores and killer food. This burger is average and they're ten years away from 600 stores.

    Shorting more and more. See you at $25.

  • Reply to

    Forbes LULU competition

    by errorfailedtopost May 23, 2015 12:37 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 May 26, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    Was out in Bridgehampton over the weekend. I was absolutely stunned by the number of men in LULU. They had a goal of reaching $1 billion in sales for men in a few years but they will get there much more quickly than that. Whatever concern there was about the brand alienating men is out the window. Whatever dent additional competition may have caused women's sales, it will be more than made up for by men.

    I'm buying more this morning.

  • chase07470 chase07470 May 25, 2015 7:31 PM Flag

    Shake Shak is late to market in a very, very, very competitive space. Five Guys already has a 1,000 locations, IN and Out has the West Coast locked up. There is definitely growth ahead but it will take a minimum of five years before it sees this share price again. And that's if it is able to ever get to 400-500 stores. It's a nice business in busy, tourists locations but any expansion into backwater locations will shred it's auv's.

    I've made a lot of money long and just started shorting Friday and will add all the way down to $20. They bring it higher and I short more. In fact, I'll be disappointed if it doesn't go higher. My only concern is I didn't start fading into the short soon enough.

  • This valuation is ridiculous.

    First, consider the growing gourmet burger competition: Five Guys Burger, Fatburger, Smash Burger, Unami Burger, Bobby's Burger, Elevation Burger, Bare Burger, Hopdoddy Burger, 5 Napkin Burger, In and Out Burger...the list goes on and on and that's just companies actively looking to franchise, fighting Shake Shak for the best locations, everywhere.

    Not to mention, every city and area in the country has multiple, mom and pop, specialty burger joints. And that's not getting into competition from the fast food giants in every nook and cranny of the country.

    It's burger fatigue! Shake Shak's product is comparable but not better, than any of them. The company has extremely appealing branding and has been very intelligent selecting locations. IN NY, which drives the bottom line, they are located short walks from major museums and tourist attractions. Droves of tourists line up to get what in NY is a reasonably priced meal with some locale cache.

    Certainly, Shake Shak has legs but these auv's will never hold up over a 1,000-2,000 store chain. They are cherry picking the best spots wherever they go and are extremely good at it. But everyday dozens of competitors are in the same markets, looking at the same opportunities and it's very, very competitive. Wonder why they are only opening up 10 new stores a year? Because there are only ten great locations and the next tier down will destroy their numbers.

    Be careful with this stock as an investor. It should be valued at $20 per share and here we are above $90.

  • Reply to

    Shakeout ahead of earnings

    by chase07470 May 21, 2015 12:45 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 May 21, 2015 9:28 PM Flag

    Volume is the floor being put in above $60. Once again, shorts thwarted here.

  • I'm a buyer here.

  • Reply to

    Somebody wants out

    by beardisaster May 20, 2015 9:33 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 May 20, 2015 5:43 PM Flag

    Stock will go into earnings between $64 and $66. Anything above those numbers and below those numbers is noise. Only bad numbers will crack this and frankly, that's not going to happen.

  • Reply to

    Massive Short Squeeze Underway

    by chase07470 May 19, 2015 7:51 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 May 20, 2015 7:08 AM Flag

    We're in a window where uncertainty is guaranteed for the next few months. You can make a bull case or a bear case. The bear case has been in control and cleaned out all but the most ardent longs, who will likely just buy more on any further down move.

    In the end, it's all about money. The easiest money to be made is squeezing 37 million shares of shorts. If the market forces wait, the bear case may become more clear and they won't be able to do it. Now is the time when they will strike. I expect a big upside finish here, this week.

  • Reply to

    Massive Short Squeeze Underway

    by chase07470 May 19, 2015 7:51 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 May 19, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    Anyone wanting to dump the stock would have been wise to do it last year. Only suckers are dumping it here.

    Are there concerns? Certainly. Is their uncertainty? Certainly.

    But if it all works out and they get through this period, which is well short of a restructuring, more like some alignment issues, then it's off to the races. Right now, the market is practically pricing in a 50% chance of bankruptcy and that's simply not the case. in fact, given their market experience and experts, the odds are much higher this all works out then gets worse from here.

  • Reply to

    Massive Short Squeeze Underway

    by chase07470 May 19, 2015 7:51 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 May 19, 2015 8:07 AM Flag

    This stock has been trading like it's going out of business, closing down factories, etc... The reality is it has a market leading position in a fast growing, new industry with seemingly unlimited potential. They have nearly $700 million of revenue. Seriously, it may not stop going up until it hits $45.

  • 111 million share float, 38 million shares short. Buy and keep buying, this is going to be a doozy.

  • Reply to

    LULU board should consider sell of the company

    by spwangsu May 7, 2015 3:20 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 May 13, 2015 4:52 PM Flag

    LOL, I haven't the slightest clue what you're on about. Who says the company isn't going to the next level? You? They have an aggressive growth strategy between international expansion, north American expansion, men and teens.

    The last thing I'd want is to have this growth story diluted into a weaker brand like UA or a fully grown out brand like Nike so I could pick up an extra $15 per share in the near term.

  • Reply to

    LULU board should consider sell of the company

    by spwangsu May 7, 2015 3:20 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 May 13, 2015 9:32 AM Flag

    Company is running better than it ever has. Everyone I've talked to and it's a lot of people, say the new CEO and management is a night and day improvement over what was there. Teams are motivated and winning.

    Big investors are ticked off because they're kept on the outside and not a lot of time is wasted holding their hands. The game is played on the front lines so I'm happy management is focusing on the business and not the investors.

  • Even if it doesn't turn a profit due to high rents, at least the investment community will become familiar with the food. The volume in this is anemic. Meanwhile, the stores are packed and people keep coming back for the delicious food.

    Sooner or later, the street will figure this one out.

  • chase07470 by chase07470 May 11, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    There is nothing left in the negative, short thesis worth being concerned with. They solved mobile, Chinese Govt backed off, it's up, up and away from here.

    This is the biggest bargain I've seen in the stock market in a decade.

  • chase07470 chase07470 May 11, 2015 9:40 AM Flag

    The manipulators pushing this down are doing us a great favor. Had they brought it straight up to $150-$200, I'd own a fraction of the shares i do and will own, as they keep this nonsense up.

    I have no stops on Baba. The fundamentals, with a forward PE of 30 and an ever improving story of growth, just means the lower it goes, the more I'll own when it finally releases to the upside.

  • Huh? Sooner or later this is going to bury any and all, currently holding it down. In the meantime, I will keep buying.

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