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Lululemon Athletica Inc. Message Board

chase07470 46 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2015 12:35 PM Member since: Mar 5, 2008
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  • chase07470 chase07470 Apr 14, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Yes, I know all about Danny Meyer, ate at his restaurants, have eaten many times at SS. Simply, the valuation here is far beyond the companies' capital available to fund the growth they need to be anywhere near worth what this is priced at. There is like, five years of outstanding growth built into it at this price. That's not the way the market works normally. But there are the AMZN's where it goes out the window, I just don't think it really ever does for restaurants. Too much infrastructure, too slow a pace of growth, too many potential economic, market and competitive risks to assume it will have five straight years of perfect growth.

  • chase07470 chase07470 Apr 14, 2015 10:43 AM Flag

    Until management finds a way to open 100 stores a year, it's going to take years for this to see $56 a share after the lock up smash down. They will get it to a 35-50 PE and from there, it's how fast they can open profitable stores which is limited to capital taken in...it's a slow process. Expect 20 new stores a year for the next few years. Unless the raise and dilute which will also smash the stock lower initially.

  • chase07470 chase07470 Apr 14, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    Here's what happens from here, mark it down.

    It squeezes up, quickly over the next month. What's the top number? Who knows, $70, $80, $90 maybe even $100. Then they will crash this thing down to $25 a share just as the lock up expires.

    Enjoy the ride, sell near the top and invest after the lock up expiration.

  • chase07470 chase07470 Apr 14, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    I can't even short stock in my account, none available. The 5 million share float and no options, with a 34% short position in this means this could be a short squeeze for the ages. Scary to be short this stock. 5 million shares is nothing.

  • The 5 million share float. This potentially could be the short squeeze of all short squeezes given how few shares are available for trading.

    You have to love this short given the valuation but man, it's a scary trade.

  • chase07470 chase07470 Mar 31, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    Been around the market long enough to know that every game gives way to reality, sooner or later. With improving margins, 12 new stores coming on line, a 24 forward PE ratio and a whole country of growth in front of it, the story changes from manipulation to growth story, right here and now, at this level.

    if you're short, you better cover. Time is running out. You can just feel it in the way it's trading that the bulls are gaining control.

  • chase07470 chase07470 Mar 31, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    What I see is a fast growing company, priced like a moderate growth story with a margin issue caused by rising food costs that they've addressed.

    Should be better numbers going forward and a price that reflects the growth trajectory towards full roll to of over 400 stores in the US and double that, abroad.

    Short this stock? You'd have to insane or stupid to do that.

  • chase07470 by chase07470 Mar 31, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    Only just over 5 million available shares to trade. There are over 18 million shares due to hit the market at the end of July. The squeeze can only last so long. Who in their right mind would not cash out come 7/29 at those prices?

    Do you really think the market is going to give them the opportunity to sell when the valuation amounts to $212 for every burger currently sold?

  • Reply to

    The haircut is over now the slaughter begins

    by madtrader666 Mar 6, 2015 12:04 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 2:13 PM Flag

    24 PE, growing at 20% on new store openings alone. Improving margins by raising prices and opening new restaurants in already opened markets to leverage costs....

    What I see is Mr. Market making one last plunge to get shares from the weak. I'm buying with them. Lets see where we are in a year. Hint: $52.

  • Reply to

    Name your bottom price

    by chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 8:26 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    I don't see a price anywhere near what you've suggested.

    In the end, this a company with a 26 PE ratio that grew 40% YOY. No matter how many shares come on to the market, there will be value buyers ready to snap up those shares and we're pretty close to that price right now.

    We are talking about the biggest internet company in China. Nothing but growth in front of them.

  • Reply to

    Baba $68 on lockup expiration day

    by fatedecides21 Mar 10, 2015 9:41 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 9:57 AM Flag

    The whole point of the anti-corruption crackdown is to make the market more transparent in the future.

    this is a GOOD thing for investing in China but will be a little bumpy. If you REALLY think that China is going to ruin it's number one tech company, then you have NO grasp on what is going on there.

  • Reply to

    Baba $68 on lockup expiration day

    by fatedecides21 Mar 10, 2015 9:41 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    Never get there. This is EBAY, Amazon and Pay Pal all rolled into a market five times the size of the US.

    They are in the middle of the corruption crackdown because of their positioning as the number on internet commerce site. But in the end, illegal business is simply replaced by legal business, the platform remains the same.

  • chase07470 by chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 8:26 AM Flag

    Linked In went from IPO of $80 to $101 and then crashed on its expiration like Baba, down to $63. Four years later it's trading at $260.

    My prediction for Baba's bottom is $75.

    What's yours?

  • chase07470 chase07470 Mar 10, 2015 8:13 AM Flag

    Great post. You can get a real bargain with AMZN at 90 billion revenue and only a $170 billion market cap. Should be worth $270 billion!

    Oh wait. They lost $250 million.

    Maybe valuing companies on revenue and not profit is a pretty stupid idea, after all.

  • Reply to

    Should be interesting from here

    by chase07470 Mar 6, 2015 4:58 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 8, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    What about Chip Wilson resigning from the board? He still has a billion in this company. Walking away makes a lot more sense if you know it's going to be sold and you're money is safe.

    Could be a coincidence but the guy doesn't strike me as someone who is real comfortable with other people in charge of his money.

  • Reply to

    Shorting More

    by chase07470 Mar 5, 2015 9:09 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 7, 2015 7:45 AM Flag

    Meanwhile you have a company like CHUY, that does have that crave factor, has better numbers, further along in its growth, a more proven concept, trading at a fraction of what SS is.

    I own CHUY and am short SS. Give it one year and watch how reality catches up to both stocks.

  • Reply to

    Should be interesting from here

    by chase07470 Mar 6, 2015 4:58 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 6, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    I'm riding this to $125 or the merger. Bought more today, like everyone else.

    With the money Nike has and the brand equity here, I honestly have no idea what they're waiting for. They could explode this brand, wrap up the women's segment and make billions. They have the global infrastructure to roll it so much more quickly while leveraging the people and systems already in place. It just makes too much sense.

    The timing of the GS downgrade, coupled with the fact they had absolutely nothing to report in terms of new information is just too odd for something not to be up.

    My first thought was like yours, that they were breaking it down through support. But the more I think about it, the more I'm thinking something bigger is in the works.

    We'll see.

  • Is Nike trying to buy LULU? Perhaps GS trying to get the price down to provide value in an effort to win the banking on the deal? Timing was just odd. The reasons were all the same things being discussed for months.

    There was an outsized move, then the volume of buyers stepped in. Perhaps one last flush to run stops before a move to $80?

    LULU is winning a HUGE share of the men's business. It's on a brand tier all it's own in the segment. The numbers are going to be real good next quarter.

  • Reply to

    The haircut is over now the slaughter begins

    by madtrader666 Mar 6, 2015 12:04 PM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 6, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    By the time I stop buying this, it will be the biggest position I've ever owned. Success in food is all about cost and craving. CHUY has them both.

    All they have to do is keep opening restaurants. Sooner or later the street will figure it out, then it's going to $75.

  • Reply to

    From DJ Newswire

    by dunrunnin2 Mar 6, 2015 8:38 AM
    chase07470 chase07470 Mar 6, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    Watch another bank with net long clients come out and reaffirm their $72 price target.

    I don't know when the day will come but it will come, when the market ignores analysts. The corruption and ineptitude is just striking.

    At $39 there wasn't a single analyst suggesting the most profitable retailer in the world was going to rebound. SMH.

    What does it matter. This is the best brand in the fastest growing fashion segment. We have great management and a world to grow into.

    I just bought more.

LULU
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