Sorry, but this is long selling. Also almost 700k shares by 12:30pm is a ton of volume for this stock
They were talking about sales growing into 2015, i.e. q1. They were asked point blank about full year 2015 and said it was too early to say.
You are aware that they guided to gross margins of 30%+ for Q3 and missed it by a mile so why do have so much faith in this management team to execute going forward? If sales are up in 2015 and margins are 31%, then I agree with you, the stock is at a bottom here. I just don't think they will do either of those things.
They didn't say that revenue would grow for full year 2015. They specifically said it was too early to say. Im sure they will have growth in Q1 on very easy comps, but full year growth (which is what the stock needs to work) is very much a big question mark.
Of course I'm speculating. So are you. Yes, Star Wars is popular. Unfortunately JAKK only has the license to make the giant sized dolls. Go to their website and check out the whopping 3 Star Wars item they offer. The real money is in the normal sized action figures and toys and those licenses went to real toy companies. JAKK's top toy will be down YoY by their own admission. Yeah, they might be wrong about that. They have been wrong about almost everything they have predicted over the past 6 years. If you actually do have kids then no doubt you have heard older kids saying that Frozen is for babies now - the death knell for any fad
fiberbull, you are missing the point on Frozen. I don't think anyone thinks that Frozen is going away entirely and I'm sure there will be renewed excitement around the expected sequel in a couple years. However, the question is about the rate of change. Will JAKK generate more sales off Frozen in 2015 than they did in 2014. I think the answer is no which puts their ability to grow revenue next year into doubt. JAKK's top toy is Snow Glow Elsa, but on the conference call they explicitly said they thought it would be DOWN in 2015. The other big driver for JAKK is Frozen role play. Again, I don't see that being up YoY as most kids already own their Frozen costumes so you need to more than double the installed base of kids who buy Frozen gear to see growth. That doesn't seem plausible to me. Most of the rest of JAKK's business is quite frankly garbage - there are only so many 40 year old virgins out there to buy 3 foot tall Darth Vader figurines.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The minimum guarantees weren't that big of a deal this quarter. Not nearly as much as they were in 2013 anyway. They said that near term they expect they are through the worst of it. They did NOT say that they will never have a minimum guarantee clause in a license contract again or assure anyone that they won't blow themselves up with these like they did in 2013, just that they wouldn't do it again in the next few quarters.
They didn't technically try to hide it of course. It was right there in the income statement. But zero mention of it in the press release. Compare that to the Q2 release where they fell all over themselves trying to explain all the "extraordinary" negative items (like increased R&D) that caused them to miss. They didn't treat the Maui earn out reserve release in nearly the same way. It just feeds into the market's 100% accurate perception that management are a bunch of slimy incompetents.
As it pertains to Frozen they flat out said on the call that their most profitable Frozen item, Snow Glow Elsa, would likely be down in 2015. I think it is pretty obvious that Frozen Disguise related revenue will be down, so what is going to drive an increase in the business in 2015?
So let's see the stock has ~70% of the float short already before earnings and over 100% of the float traded in the last day and half and it's all due to shorts pushing it down. So I guess 170% of the float is short now, lol? I got some news for you that you might not want to hear. It's down because large institutions are bailing left and right. Wait until the Q4 13G filings start rolling in and you will see what I'm talking about.
I assume you are netting out the $200M in payables. The valuation will fluctuate significantly for a company like this depending on what time of year you look at it because their cash flows are so lumpy (as with all retailers). Probably supposed to look at an average for the year. I just don't see how you put any faith in management's view. They have repeatedly missed targets over the past few years. They even missed EPS the past 2 quarters when Frozen was in full gear! If minimum guarantees are going away then the content owners will get it back through higher royalty rates. Make no mistake, Disney holds all the cards here. JAKK's is a low margin commodity biz run by clowns. Those types of businesses typically get the type of depressed multiple you are seeing now. PE can't just borrow at 6x EBITDA for any deal. The banks aren't just writing them blank checks. I highly doubt someone would lend at 6x for someone to buy JAKK and no bank would make a loan where the PE firm was putting up zero equity. That said, I'm sure a PE firm could improve the business with new management, but I doubt they'd be willing to pay the type of premium that would get JAKK management to sell.
I got the idea from JAKK management who said it explicitly on the Q2 call.
I see it currently trading at 5x EBITDA ($145M mkt cap + $126M of net debt divided by $52M midpoint of guidance). The reason why I wouldn't pay a dime more than that is that I see equal risk that 2015 EBITDA guidance ends up lower than higher than 2014. I don't want to pay a big multiple on what I view as a windfall year due to Frozen. To me something between the 2013 disaster and 2014 is where the truth lies in terms of EBITDA generation potential for this business. I think MAT and HAS are also overvalued. The toy industry has changed. Kids would rather play a game on an iPad. There will always be some market for traditional toys, but it's in secular decline in my view. Those industries should get very depressed multiples.
The short interest is probably almost entirely convert related, but good luck with that
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Yes, 2014 is definitely better than 2013 when they were on the brink of insolvency. The big problem I have with the company aside from management being the absolute worst public team I have ever encountered is that their business is structurally challenged. The only thing they have that is remotely proprietary is DreamPlay and even that they don't own the IP on. At one point I thought they might have something there but I think it would have to be described as a failure. Barbie may be fading, but it is still a cash cow and only MAT has it. MAT invested a lot in Monsters High and that has become a decent franchise. JAKK has nothing of the sort. They are forced to subsist on the scraps that fall through through HAS and MAT's hands, and even a big success like Frozen ends up cannibalizing their other biz (which you might recall on their Q2 call they said wouldn't happen in Q3 - oops). They took massive charges last year for failed license minimums and its happening again this year. That is because management is incompetent and chronically overbids. Frozen was pure luck and they missed a few quarters of sales being slow to respond. Could a different management team come in and improve things. Definitely. But as long as they have the support of Soon Siong, it ain't happening. Why he lets this go on is beyond me.