would be more useful if you point out flaws in my arguments. I'm actually mystified why people would buy this. Even if you know nothing about the company and just gambling on the charts that doesnt look good either.. just failed to breakout to the upside
i have not shorted this but thinking it might be a good time..
It's always been overvalued, even now. Take a look at other P&C insurers - they mostly trade around low teens forward PE, MCY trades like 19x. Its an underperformer too - consistently higher expense/loss ratios. Why wouldnt you just buy PGR - a much better managed company with better margins, more advertising budget to grow the brand..etc. The only thing decent going on at MCY is its high dividend but thats not even sustainable b/c of the payout ratio as the other poster mentioned.
If anything I would short this. The 5% or so dividend sounds nice thats easily be overwhelmed by capital loss in a couple days.