The only premium i see is the change in control premium. You may do well with the shares you are getting but APL was sold for peanut shells you didn't even get the peanuts. Why they should do a deal at somewhere near bottom of the market is beyond me. I still can't figure it out.
You only got paid on Monday exactly what the shares were trading before on Thursday in the case of ATLS. My idea of a takeunder.
the crude market at Cushing has not made sense for months. WTI was dropping for months when supplies at Cushing were near record lows becasue of small builds due to outages at the Coffeyville refinery. Oil was too high at $104 and its too low at $80 and the market in energy shares has lost its mind. Venezuela is likely to snap first and then oil and shares goes off to the races 3xs faster than the way down.
IMO there is not enough information to say which is a better deal with any certainty. With yesterday's ARP filing you can see its 4000 gross acres all HBP with 74% NRI but no spacing info or lateral lengths of the undrilled wells. With COG's deal is 30,000 net acres no HBP details with 400 feet spacing but no NRI #s.
Shell sold acres to SN not long ago with wells drilled all in the lower EF and better wells are expected on the upper EF by SN so lots of variables are possible in this vein as well. EF acreage is not all equal nor is it equally unrisked.
COG seems to have the better deal but the purposes are also different. COG wants to develop the acres and drill and ARP wants to do drilling parternerships. Hard to compare even if you had all the info.
Rip Van Trustee woke up after 6 years. What a joke! And when the money comes how much is thebacklog owed to cap the offshore LA wells?
You answered your own question: Egypt thrived the Nubian Pharaohs from the Sudan best period of the history there save the New Kingdom . Anwar Sadat also advanced Egypt, half Nubian, he was a great colored leader who took back the Sinai and later won the Nobel peace prize.
This stock has an invasion of Canada in to PA priced in. A 5% severance tax does not cause a 50% value drop.
I doubt he can keep Iraq oil independent. Baghdad is hanging by a thread and airplanes help wont cut it. How long till they take the oil fields?
The point is that CVI gets its profits from both UAN and CVRR but doenst seem to track those stocks. Looks like you are one of many that don't get it.
there is no rational relationship between the prices of CVI and UAN. I think its because many investors like myself, until recently, know nothing of the fertilizer biz. I would like to hear other ideas if anyone has any. CVI is down 2% this year and UAN over 20% while CVRR is up 2%.
No rational reason. Other shares are down too and again but with exception of some highly leveraged dry gas drillers this poor stock has fallen more than any others i know of.
Permain oil is also getting poor pricing and Canada oil sands has bad pricing too but for drills to be put down these low prices need to stick. CCs are going to say things like rigs will be put down if oil goes to X. Oil was too hot this summer and now its too cold. Fundamentals call for WTI in the $90s IMO.
I agree with you. Lots of mostly nat gas producers are down as much as or more than oil drillers. The market is not logical just now.
Earnings could well do it but before that these other things could happen. Oil prices if they stabilized - this is the main one, oil stocks wont recover till the bombs stop falling. and also if the dollar were to weaken. More insider buying may do it too. Good earnings from any oil stock (or maybe even Alcoa) may cause the market to notice that these stocks are way way way oversold.