Its the LINN Permabulls who think they were given a late Christmas gift with the dist slashed. They must really be nuts. I replied to one of the twits on the ATLS board today. Its good for a laugh and insight into protohuman delusions.
It seems most of the BBEP holders know they are on unsteady ground.
Once everyone is satisfied that ATLS & or ARP dists are safe and after oil prices stop falling. I think they will be buying. Well. maybe a couple of them who are not so deep into the cool aid they pass out in that LINN cult.
You must be one of those LINN permabulls. They get their dist slashed after the thing has been run into the ground. Those last two deals before Blackstone they did were terrible and you would think they are craping gold. I read the SA article comments and on here for a good hearty laugh.
QRE was run by crooks. I think BBEP bought the farm buying them- great assets but way too many share awards to the GP even after BBEP slashed them by 60%, Now they are all vesting. IF BBEP survives I might get some shares in the $2s with my ARP distribution money.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think the whole IDR and corpore structure will be redone. The GP lost one of its two legs of its IDR stream with the sale of Apl. I expect another leg will be added in some form and other various changes. I expect the changes to make people bullish on ARP & ATLS spin co. Ed has more rabbits in his hat.
We export tons of fuels and now exports of condensate are cleared for export. The regs on exporting condensate were not clear until now. Condensate is very light oil perfect for easy refining. It only needs to be stablized for safety to export. US E&P produces lots of light oils that previously all were imported at high expense. To save money many US refinerys spent billions in the past to be able to refine heavy sour crude so we now have a surpluss of the light sweet kind and will export it. We import the cheaper heavy stuff mostly from CA & VZ.
just look at the Baker Huges rig report from today. Canada rigs are down 175 in the last two weeks!!! US & CA over 3 weeks rigs are down 246. I still agree with rrb though. this will take time there are a lot of drilled wells not behind pipe yet or completed.
no mistake, that heavy oil gets a big discount and has a big cost to bring it by rail to the US where it competes with Mexico and Venezuala. This is the real oil battle that stuff you read about the Saudi's taking out US shale is bunk. Bottom line- selling heavy crude for $30 a barrel is bankrupting CA and VZ fast. Sure the US and Saudis are not making money but they hold better cards. Light oil producers Iran & Iraq, Nigera, Colombia and Angola have the next lowest cards. high cost & high debt producers will go under and supply will meet demand and life will go on and oil will be back in the $70 & $80s before i get my shorts out of the closet.
Did you see the Canadian rig count? Down 135 and down 40 the week before. Three week US & CA change of negative 246 rigs.
I agree that storage is way down in Cushing but its has been replaced as the focal point for WTI this past year as there is now new pipeline capacity to the gulf coast. You need to look at the Gulf Coast as well as Cushing now when determining deficit or surplus.
Contango is now huge about $5 more for the next month's delivery so its a big factor now and may be the reason USEG's production seems to have been mostly shut down. VLCC rates are now $87,000 a day!
I watched CNBC yesterday and John Kilduff, their oil guy, said its Saudi flooding us with imports and the price is going to $30 so I checked the report and the imports increased from CA, VZ, Kuwait and Iraq. Saudi imports were actually down. Then I read oil is in Contango so people buy barrels now at $56 and sell them months later at $60 or so they make a nice profit after paying storage. Not knowing the score and listening to shorts can be unnerving.
No as bullish as i thought buy still not negative.
It showed a build of over 5 m barrels in Texas when a withdrawl was expected as happens nearly every Dec. A tax will need to be paid on all storage in TX next week, its effective at year end. Thus people are making a big bet now calling the bottom betting on higher oil prices if they are will to buy and import it and hold it for the tax. The market did not see it this way, they must think these guys must really love the state of Texas as purchase delivered Jan 1st in TX will not need to worry about this tax for 364 days.
some highlights from the Street's sell report: The company's current return on equity greatly increased when compared to its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a signal of significant strength within the corporation. The gross profit margin for U S ENERGY CORP/WY is rather high; currently it is at 63.38%. It has increased significantly from the same period last year. Net operating cash flow has increased to $5.41 million or 29.55% when compared to the same quarter last year. The firm also exceeded the industry average cash flow growth rate of -1.59%. USEG's debt-to-equity ratio is very low at 0.07 and is currently below that of the industry average, implying that there has been very successful management of debt levels. To add to this, USEG has a quick ratio of 1.91, which demonstrates the ability of the company to cover short-term liquidity needs.
This is more bullish than anything put out by IR!
USEG is not the only energy stock thats up today. We are going into the weekend so its dangerous to be short as something good for oil could happen like a war. People are starting to bet that oil is close to bottoming. The newst IEA oil demand cut looks even less convincing than the last 3 as the same day a report comes out that VLCC rates have more tripled as everyone wants the oil.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
that depends. Next well will be an EF and its the first one in a few years and will be done differently so cant be sure as there are no specifics yet. Past two wells were fracked Budas that were not worth it and wont be repeated so they only matter historically and for making last Q look bad.. Other Budas were not fracked and very cheap to get out of the ground. I would guess $20 a barrel for lifting cost. Then you have ND wells with a different set of numbers. Would be a good question to ask IR.
somebody will buy somebody and prices will rise. I think gas and gas sotcks are near max low for the heating season but not buying yet. my body is covered 90% with burns!
That could also be the target. CA produces heavy oil which is exactly what the Saudi's sell as well as VZ. The reason I didn't say CA is that once a oil mine is built it wont be shut easily with all that sunken money. I recon other nuts will crack first. VZ is a mess and its refineries in the US are already for sale but the money wont last them very long.
I don't know what type the Iranians sell. US light crude competes with Nigeria so putting US shale out of biz wont hadly help the Saudis at all. The refinery specs dont let you choose between the two types. Your plant either takes heavy or light. Its millions of dollars and years construction and shut down to change your crude slate.
I dont want them to be an operator at any oil price. I believe that was said in desperation. They think the quarter was a dud because of US Enercorp and it was. Sure they could have done a better job as operator but they should have done a better job as nonoperator and not made a interest in a driller who is unproven.
As for today's oil drop, demand is understated and there is no oil glut and thus no OPEC cuts. If this is meant to hurt someone its the Iranians or the Venezuelans.
The view of the pros and I just heard it again today from Doug Kass interviewed by Yahoo Finance, when asked if he is short energy shares, after just announcing he was bearish on the oil price, was that we was planning to go long energy shares - but not yet. Some event will cause everyone to get back in.
The EF will all the puds it would make would also add a lot of PV-10 to MCF and I think they want increases for doing deals with the low prices out there now. Its been hard for me to figure out MCF as there have been many sharp turns recently. Suddenly cold on offshore drilling and cooler talk on the Buda. Seems to me he wants to build a big land position given the gift of low prices. Not a bad idea.