I read the new ATLS 10 K last night and ARP is hedged heavily for gas through '18 at prices of min $4.25. Oil hedges are a 1/3 less for '16 and then drop another 50% from there in '17 & '18. I expect more hedges to be layered on as time and prices rise for oil but the bottom line is there is no real worry here about gas prices till '19.
pg 103 of ATLS 10 K is anyone wants to look
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Griffin I agree on MEMP with a 3.6 X's coverage they are the one to own if you think prices will stay low past '17. MEMP is my second choice due to hedges into '19 but lower coverage ratio. I think prices will drift higher by '17 so I sold MEMP and bought more ARP. Invest on how you see the future and how much risk you want to take.
I lost 10 times more money than you have ever seen but made half back and have tax losses now so will not be paying taxes for a long while. I am happy you did so well. Did you repaper the doublewide?
Sure you didn't sell at $5 or $50? are you even on the right board? Never saw you post before poser. So how much did you profit from your 100 shares?
They don't need any drop downs as they have more land then they can drill on in 50 years. I don't think they get credit for it people just look and see that they don't have cash to do more deals and ignore that they have more land than the BLM. They can expand the drilling partnerships for many years. What you also want to look at is its yield and the coverage ratio and the ability to raise the distribution and for that they are alone at the top.
The partnerships were front and center in the presentation which gives ARP an extra two stars in my book. Look at all the land they have- how can anyone complain the GP doesn't have any dropdowns to give? What would they do with more land?
BBEP has a shadow GP now, Quantum, and anyone who wants to invest with them will need lots of luck. LGCY slashed the dist today. MCEP has slipped and is going nowhere and I sold my shares and LINE is a mess. You want MEMP with all production hedged? Not if prices keep rising and don't forget its lousy 0.86 Xs coverage. LRE 0.95 Xs coverage. I'll stick with ARP thanks.
I am looking forward to the presentation. The slides look awesome. Net Acreage of nearly 1.5 million acres with 776,000 undeveloped. Ed was a real land collector so this has loads to grow into.
As for the charts, it looks to me like has broken out with the next resistance at $10.45. I expect we will be there in days. A break out above $11.69 will have ARP sailing smooth till mid $15. Since fundamentals are important to me I will point out that ARP is the best valued MLP with a current yield of over 14%. I don't like Zach's either but they are not going to pry these shares from my hands.
I thought it went fine. They talked about being conservative and reducing leverage but also how they have good property and are lowering drilling costs etc. Nothing earth shattering.
ARP will pay $200 million upon closing the transaction, subject to purchase price adjustments, and the remaining $25 million will be paid in three quarterly installments beginning March 31, 2015- from the press release last year. Later they detailed the exact pavements and I recall the last one is bigger. So maybe its something like $6m, $6m & then $13m.
The $6 million was in the cards so no mystery as the last deal calls for quarterly issuance as payments through Q4 if memory serves me. That being said this thing is cheap under $10 and doubly so if oil prices are currently off the floor. This is now my largest holding as I want to get paid to wait as oil bounces around for the next six months or more.
I have loaded up with ARP in the past few weeks. I expect bumps on the road for the oil rebound so I like the hedges this has and its bargain basement price. Under $10 is too cheap even with $45 oil so I expect growth and income and i can still sleep well.
you can still get to the ARP board using the "Get Message Board for" but the hyperlink on ARP to the Board is gone for some reason