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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

chelonophile 79 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 23, 2013 8:42 AM Member since: Feb 5, 2013
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  • Apples initial sales numbers are a blowout....
    Their new IOS download numbers are a blowout....

    This means their Iradio numbers are thus a blowout.

    Pandora shareholders are starting to wake up to reality this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if we trade under the secondary offering price later.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • 1. As a high frequency trader, I had a commission discount. They switched me to full commissions without any warning or reasoning....they tried to sneak it through basically

    2. Their trading platform collapsed yesterday after the FOMC meeting. It was down about five minutes. Streamer quotes and trading were down the rest of the afternoon.

    3. I tried to short ORCL after hours yesterday. They locked the trade and said it was 'pending broker review'. What broker review? It was a simple trade well within my account capital. After five minutes I cancelled the trade. Great 'review' guys. Thanks for nothing.

    Stay away from this brokerage. There are too many other good ones that care about their clients to give this one your business.

  • chelonophile by chelonophile Jun 25, 2013 8:40 AM Flag

    Cost cutting is good for the company's bottom line and thus the stock price. I'm expecting a very nice bounce shortly/later today and into the near future.

    Obama isn't going to get what he wants...his true agenda/self is now apparent to one and all and even the liberal media is finally starting to peel back the onion of his presidency. His approval ratings continue to slide and these executive orders simply don't work (versus building a consensus with Congress and moving the country as a whole forward). The 2014 elections are going to eviscerate what little power he has left. Everything balances out eventually.

  • Reply to

    Why not buy more right now?

    by imarugerfan Jun 24, 2013 10:36 AM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 24, 2013 2:04 PM Flag

    Thanks for your reply. I disagree with your thought that the stock price will drop in accordance with the tender offer but that's what makes markets and we will all find out soon enough.

    Nice quiet unchanged day.

    Can't remember who called it but someone posted that the hedgies would drive the price down in the morning and it would go up in the afternoon. Kudos on that superb call.

  • Reply to

    Why not buy more right now?

    by imarugerfan Jun 24, 2013 10:36 AM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 24, 2013 11:03 AM Flag

    This is true for a dividend but I'm not seeing how it is true for a tender offer rugerfan. The number of outstanding shares is decreasing by x percentage which in turn offsets the $10 offer price. There shouldn't be any effect on the stock price itself.

    Kindly point out a reliable source if I'm incorrect in my assumptions.

  • Reply to

    Why not buy more right now?

    by imarugerfan Jun 24, 2013 10:36 AM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 24, 2013 10:47 AM Flag

    I did buy more. At 9.53 and then 9.48. Thanks for asking.

    (let me do the math for you...that's an average cost of 9.50....with a .50 gain GUARANTEED for a percentage of those share in the next three weeks.....which is a gain of 5.3% on those shares. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.....I'll take my 5.3% 'guarantee' and just sit on any extra shares that the company doesn't buy back because it is clearly a cash cow that will get taken out or recognized eventually)

  • chelonophile chelonophile Jun 24, 2013 8:36 AM Flag

    Anything may be possible....but I still don't think I'm going to get that unicorn I wanted for my birthday :). SWHC is already at firesale prices based on every known investing parameter.

  • Reply to

    SWHC... GAME OVER I WARNED YOU

    by rjpurg59 Jun 24, 2013 8:20 AM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 24, 2013 8:33 AM Flag

    Short squeezes are fun rides....when you're long :).

    Weak hands are just getting shaken out right now. Hell, if I were a big boy I'd try and drive this thing as low as possible on the low volume in order to pick up as many shares as possible as low as possible for the impending $10 tender offer. Easy cash in a very brutal investing market and with the hedgies having had a very rough year to date....they 'need' to make some moves to catch up.

  • Reply to

    Tender offer details

    by chelonophile Jun 21, 2013 2:13 PM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 21, 2013 2:40 PM Flag

    If everyone were to offer up their shares, your math is correct. Since I know I'm not offering up 80% of my shares...and that many others will also hold onto theirs versus a fairly lowball $10 offer....

  • Reply to

    Tender offer details

    by chelonophile Jun 21, 2013 2:13 PM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 21, 2013 2:28 PM Flag

    That is indeed the risk...though I think your 7/8ths and 9.20 estimates are highly unlikely with a company firing on all cylinders right now (and into the future with that beautiful backlog)! Just doing it with some play money right now pending news on Tuesday....which should be highly entertaining.

  • chelonophile by chelonophile Jun 21, 2013 2:13 PM Flag

    I received the following information from SWHC investor relations.

    "Thank you for your inquiry. For further information regarding the tender offer, please contact Innisfree, the company serving as information agent. Stockholders may call 888-750-5834 and banks/brokers may call 212-750-5833."

    I called Innisfree for more information and the gist of it is that as an individual investor, all I need to do is to call my broker and tender my shares for the offer. The shares of course will be locked up until July 15th and therefore cannot be traded in the meantime unless I call my broker and untender the shares.

    So let's do some basic math...buy the stock now at 9.74.
    Take a three week vacation.
    Sell the stock July 15th at 10.

    That's a 2.7% 'guaranteed' rate (on whatever number of shares end up being tendered) for taking a three week vacation from the stupidity that is this rate obsessed market.

    Gee....why wouldn't I buy a bunch of shares then just tender them for the $10 offer?

    Oh wait. Already did.

    This is not rocket science.

    (and no, I'm not tendering my old shares...just some new ones. I still think there's a freight train coming down the tracks Tuesday)

  • Reply to

    Tender offers are out

    by slotcar58 Jun 21, 2013 8:33 AM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 21, 2013 9:27 AM Flag

    I doubt they'd consider them this early unless they are getting indications that there is almost zero acceptance at the $10 level. I don't see them coming even close to filling their order at the $10 level though so I suspect they will negotiate or establish a higher floor soon.

  • Reply to

    Starting to get a feeling...

    by chelonophile Jun 20, 2013 11:58 AM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 20, 2013 4:13 PM Flag

    Exactly wolfstock. The stock was acting very strongly in the face of a weak market and I thought that this was due to a 'small' leak so management made the call to make the information 100% public despite being before the scheduled release date in order to meet it's responsibilities. I'm not so sure anymore that this is the whole story though...

    And I agree with your line of thinking equity. The stigma associated with being a gun company is rapidly wearing off (almost as quickly and in tandem with Obama's 'luster' removal). This opens doors for an acquisition. For a company/consortium/private entity to obtain such a cash machine at such a low PE is simply smart business...and long overdue. Let RGR be the only publicly traded gun company and remove SWHC from being a publicly traded whipping boy.

  • Reply to

    Starting to get a feeling...

    by chelonophile Jun 20, 2013 11:58 AM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 20, 2013 12:21 PM Flag

    My suspicions as to why we aren't at the 52 week high.

    1. The mistaken belief that gun purchases are a one and done event when in fact gun ownership is climbing with no end in sight (due to higher disposable incomes, pent up demand, political changes, and most importantly a social change regarding guns (its become cool in certain circles to own the latest and greatest toy))
    2. Shorts/politically sensitive longs who drove the price down but who are gradually heading for greener pastures (like SPY the last few days- lol)
    3. People move in herds

    This being said, with the continual incredible growth rate, a PE that keeps shrinking, a decreasing float, political pressure that is nearing the end, the 100/$10 floor by management.....it's going to revisit and blow through it's 52 week high (and that's assuming someone doesn't take it out for the cash cow that it is before that).

  • chelonophile by chelonophile Jun 20, 2013 11:58 AM Flag

    I've been giving the preannouncement of earnings by SWHC a lot of thought the last week or so while keeping an eye on the stock price. Something just doesn't feel right in terms of there being a leak leading to the company making the preannouncement which was my original theory. I'm starting to think that there's going to be a game changing announcement made next Tuesday....it could be the outright sale of the company or privatization of it, an acquisition, something really, really big....something that made the company want to get the 'regular' news completely out of the way early (earnings, $10 per share tender offer for up to $100 million dollars worth of stock). A sort of clearing the plates from the table announcement to get ready for dessert.

    This is STRICTLY an educated guess based on the announcement and how the stock has been trading in the face of severe headwinds but again...I'm starting to think there's something big coming down the tracks and I'm investing accordingly. There's no reason we shouldn't be going through the 52 week high considering the continual growth rate and perhaps 'earnings' next Tuesday will be that trigger.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Never seen purchaser have stock go up

    by cajunfriar Jun 13, 2013 7:26 PM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 14, 2013 9:15 AM Flag

    Reminds me of the Sears and Kmart combination days. #$%$ buying #$%$ leading to synergistic....#$%$.....with a lot of real estate in the portfolio.

  • Reply to

    Ask yourself: Why release earnings early?

    by wolfstock64 Jun 13, 2013 4:58 PM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 14, 2013 9:12 AM Flag

    I agree that $10 is the new floor by the way. Talk of selling lower than that with 75 million on the table is rather amusing.

  • Reply to

    Ask yourself: Why release earnings early?

    by wolfstock64 Jun 13, 2013 4:58 PM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 14, 2013 9:11 AM Flag

    I hope you're right but the trading of RGR down and SWHC steady the last several weeks says to me that some folks 'knew' of the $10 offer and were propping up the stock with their buying.

  • Reply to

    5 blocks of 21,781 sold this morning

    by tim30_9 Jun 14, 2013 8:41 AM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 14, 2013 9:09 AM Flag

    Arbitragers.

  • Reply to

    Simple math again

    by chelonophile Jun 14, 2013 8:16 AM
    chelonophile chelonophile Jun 14, 2013 8:18 AM Flag

    I forgot to mention, this year has seen the third highest M and A activity ever......there's cash out there looking for a place to go and again, SWHC is prime real estate once the political stigma subsides (we're very, very close- look at the lack of pounding on gun companies for the Santa Monica nightmare)

SWHC
9.41-0.27(-2.79%)Sep 23 4:00 PMEDT

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